MikeG
Unregistered
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think Irene is on the way back.
i think the Low level center may once again have redeveloped a little to the sw of track....hard to tell, but convection is on the way back on the east side of system. I can see a mid-level swirl, but not sure how its doing down on the surface. If a ship report was that weak, (what was it's location on the report) , it could mean to me that irene may have a new center. ?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir2-loop.html
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StormTrooper
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: San Antonio Go! Spurs Go!
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Hard to believe shipping traffic would be anywhere near the storm. We did it for training.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Dave, certainly not doubting you just surprised the seas are that calm in a TD.... but stranger things have happened with this crazy system so far... why should it be any different now...
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MikeG
Unregistered
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this was the only ship report i could find, but is not close to center....
ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS TIDE
(GMT) nm ° ° kts kts ft sec sec ° in in °F °F °F mi ft
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C6KD8 S 0000 22.30 -62.80 108 247 70 8.9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 30.11 +0.02 83.5 84.2 75.7 12.4 -
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StormTrooper
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: San Antonio Go! Spurs Go!
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Post deleted by StormTrooper
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I checked yesterday's dropsonde reports from Irene.
I don't find any winds above 12 kts in the last 150 meters of dropsonde fall. That would be the last 492 feet of fall.
Deep Layer Mean winds were less than 13 knots.
I didn't check all of the reports. Mainly the first few and last few drops.
OBS 1-6 and 20-23.
Those reports, 36 hours old, would seem to back up the ship reports of light winds and seas.
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MikeG
Unregistered
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winds was 8.9
dir was 70
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MikeG
Unregistered
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http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.p...ot=A&time=4
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Let's try and format the above post so it's readable:
Code:
ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS TIDE
(GMT) nm ° ° kts kts ft sec sec ° in in °F °F °F mi ft
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C6KD8 S 0000 22.30 -62.80 108 247 70 8.9 - - - - - 30.11 +0.02 83.5 84.2 75.7 12.4 -
Note: I took out some of the dashes in the center. The Pressure makes sense in that spot, and the columns line up, so there may have been extra dashes originally.
P.S. If you are posting monospaced stuff, you need to use the [ code ] tag.
(if an admin wants to move my fix of the post into the above, it would save space )
P.P.S - by the time I got it formatted, it was 6 posts later on - BUSY night here!
Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Aug 09 2005 10:33 PM)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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First of all Irene is not a storm as of now. ships do travel thru small lows to save time. I was in the Navy for 43 yrs, retired as a Navy Capt.
Dave
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
this was the only ship report i could find, but is not close to center....
ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS TIDE
(GMT) nm ° ° kts kts ft sec sec ° in in °F °F °F mi ft
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C6KD8 S 0000 22.30 -62.80 108 247 70 8.9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 30.11 +0.02 83.5 84.2 75.7 12.4 -
22.3N 62.8W 108nm at 247degrees(WSW); wind 070 at 8.9kts;30.11 baro; +0.02 tendancy; 83.5 air temp; 84.2 sea temp; 75.7 dew pt; 12.4 visibility; tide missing
Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 09 2005 10:40 PM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Looks like we have some very smart people saying it COULD be an Andrew type,and other smart people saying that is crazy.Will be very interesting to see how this plays out.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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When a Moderator states that a particular line of thought needs to end, then it needs to end immediately. Right now the concentration on Irene's track should be for the next 4 or 5 days - or perhaps even better - on whether or not it will survive.
A reminder about my earlier comments regarding one-line posts. If they have no relevance, they will be discarded.
Finally, please attempt to stay on-topic by putting your post in the proper Forum. Lets all calm down a little and see how this tropical cyclone evolves - there is still plenty of time to watch it before anybody has to be concerned.
Thanks for your help with these issues. No response is necessary.
ED
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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Irene isnt looking as good anymore, someone before said Irene would be a TS by tonight, does anyone still thinkn this is possible with Irene's current health?
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST TUE AUG 09 2005
...IRENE MOVING WESTWARD...NOT STRENGTHENING
-------------------- 2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 09 2005 10:52 PM)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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well this particular ship report is meaningless relative to understanding the strength of Irene because it is so far away from the estimated center and is on the west side... ~500 miles away... but it sure is easy to read
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Frank, this is the closest ship report to the 5 PM position that I can find.
ZCBD3 S 0000 25.50 -50.10 293 53 30 22.9 - - - - - 30.16 +0.03 80.6 - 75.4 12.4 -
translated. 25.5N 50.1W 293nm at 053degrees( NE ) of Irene. NE QUAD.
Wind 030 (NE) at 22.9kts.
Baro 30.16 up 0.03in over last 3 hrs.
edit: wind would seem to indicate a displaced center.
It should be from 090-135 in the NE Quad. Theoretically speaking. And with a vertically stacked storm.
Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 09 2005 11:02 PM)
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Old Sailor
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Tropical Depression IRENE Discussion 11:00 PM 08/09/2005,
I'm glad has a fix on Irene called a shot in the dark....
BUT IS NEVERTHELESS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
BUT IT IS ALSO A
REFLECTION OF THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE IRENE WILL BE HEADED BY
THAT TIME. 3 to 5 days out...
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Clark
Meteorologist
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After seeing some of the discussions tonight and some of the threads around here, I just wanted to post a couple of notes.
While I may have the title "meteorologist" by my name, that doesn't mean I'm always right. Nothing I -- or anyone else, for that matter, professional or not -- say with regards to forecasting these storms should be taken as gospel. While I do not believe the threat for this storm to become a major hurricane is there, and strongly disagree about bringing up references to Hurricane Andrew in almost any circumstance, that doesn't mean that things will always turn out like we hope.
As Rick on boat mentioned, these storms are very unpredictable. As always, my forecasts and thinking are provided for guidance, nothing more. We just need to watch and see where this storm is going, as I and others have said, and we'll know more about the storm in a day or two. It may not be the most popular thing to say, but given what we know and don't know about these storms, it's about all we can do right now.
That said, I'm probably going to stick more to general forecasts and educational posts from hereon out, rather than getting into discussions. As always, I'm happy to answer questions via PM and such, but I'll leave the discussions for what it should be...for you guys.
-Clark
-------------------- Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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HanKFranK
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thought i'd use the old header from a couple days ago when Irene was supposed to have recurved already so as to keep things fair and balanced after all.
speaking of wishcasting... every time there's a weak storm moving north of the islands progged to come west the references to Andrew start.. Andrew did this, Andrew did that.. a cat 5 analog is after all the best thing to use in every situation, as cat 5 hurricanes happen almost every week. really, i saw some smart person toss in dora of 1964... not bad. dora was already a great deal stronger, but the evolving pattern may be something of that ilk.
anywho, the status. Irene is being sheared at different heights... northerly shear very high up, sw shear associated with the upper trough that missed it at the outflow levels. this pattern caused Irene's brief improvement overnight to result in a decoupling today.. the mlc is still trailing the LLC a tad at this hour. dry environment, persisting shear and stack problems (real disorganization in my book) are keeping it moving just south of west and not allowing it to strengthen. of course there are still models killing Irene (gfdl and lots of the globals have been losing it for days).. but Irene isn't going to die. the scenario that bastardi outlined is coming into play with the escape hatch being the reorganization of the ridge around fri-sat. if Irene is far enough north at that time.. it'll do something like felix 1995 did. if Irene isn't... it'll come west like a rocket next week and hit somebody like a ton of bricks around wed. Irene has probably been at t.s. status all day (and yesterday... t-numbers are usually a little low on sheared systems with sporadic convection... the LLC with Irene has been solid). should get the official upgrade tomorrow and move west a little more quickly.. slow down around the weekend.. and either meander near bermuda next week or be accelerating and deepening under the ridge. potential impact is still tuesday, august 16th at earliest. it isn't certain by any means... but the configuration is there if the storm evolves correctly to verify what joe b has cooking up.
other areas... wave train is depressed, but an focal area near 45w may activate as a tropical wave approaches. there's good low level convergence, a kick from a wave may start something. there's already a weak trough trailing se from Irene leading up from there.. there's the potential pathway.
that little swirl i was eyeballing yesterday tracked south of puerto rico.. showed well on radar.. then there it was running south of hispaniola today. tomorrow morning it should be passing jamaica if it hasnt' become indistinct. hostile shear conditions present, but they are lessening. that little bugger had better be gone tomorrow.. it's like an baby evil clown or something. creepy.
still waiting on the home brew. not expecting. there's a couple of weak impulses moving up ahead of the shortwave near the mid atlantic (hopefully what will pull Irene out of from the starting gate)... nothing doing. weak low still near the fl/ga/al confluence... keeping it moist over the southeast day after day.
t.s. fernanda in the eastpac has come up, so the atlantic should go active in a week or so. that relationship works often enough in this type of season. the ensemble means have ridging near the east coast for days... better hope the ridge is amplified rather than zonal to the east.. otherwise this is going to be a long month.
HF 0515z10august
(personal reference removed)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 13 2005 12:51 AM)
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Am I reading this incorrectly, orwere the past 2 QuikScat passes of Irene unable to find the LLC? Not too surprising, given the disorganization and perhaps re-configuration of the storm, but it did catch my attention.
Depends on what you are reading~danielw
Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 10 2005 01:26 AM)
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