B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Well, the offical 5 day forcast track sure make the Carolina Coast look pretty vulnerable. The more Irene moves west , south of that area looks like there might be good possibility of something happening. I just don`t know. I`m in Charleston S.C. at the moment, so I`m going to follow this baby every mile it moves....I hope it takes the UKMET models track, but that looks highly unlikely. Shoud be an interesting start to next week if Irene gets its act together in the next few days....Weatherchef. web page ]
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Quote:
If TD irene is moving WSW than could she be feeling the affects of the ridge already?
She is not moving WNW,she is moving due west.That is my point,she is not moving north at all.Yesterday she was at 22.4N,today she is at 22.4N.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Miami, Florida
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Visible Satellite loops this morning showing an organizing storm again, with good banding features developing, good outflow and convection building on the W and SW side of the center. Shear has relaxed and there is nothing but warm SST's ahead of her so I would not be surprised to see her continue to organize and strengthen to TS status later today or tonight as she heads generally W or WNW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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One has to admire Irene's tenacity. What I am wondering is about the strengthening of the storm.
If Irene does intensify what are the possibilities? It seems the consensus is she would be a weak system and a rainmaker at best ( of course, a rainmaker can cause extensive flooding especially with a stalling out of the system over land). Why will she remain a weak system? Is there simply not enough time to intensify or are there factors that will keep her from doing so? Also, does the possibility exist that she could still dissipate?
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none
Unregistered
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the says in 72 hours theres a 20% chance she could dissapate. I wouldn't count on it though. Due to the amount of shearing it has survived to this point.
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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
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She is not moving WNW,she is moving due west.That is my point,she is not moving north at all.Yesterday she was at 22.4N,today she is at 22.4N.
Actually, Irene has been at between 22.4 to 22.6 since the 11oo advisory on 08-08-2005. Currently at 24.4 So she has been moving basically west since Monday.
Michael
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XLM
Unregistered
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I dont see the WSW movement, instead Im seeing a WNW movement, just a little bit south of the forecasted track
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Johns Island, SC
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It seems that lately, we wake up every morning and Irene has reorganized and is strengthening. Then, as the day progresses, Irene ends up weaker than it was before. As well, we keep hearing that Irene is moving toward an area of warmer water and less shear, yet this same trend continues (strengthening in the morning, weaker by night). I do know this, Irene bears watching because there is plenty of time for this storm to get its act together and do a little damage. Given the persistance of the system and the warm waters close to the coast, any somewhat organized system can pull on shore as a hurricane.
One question, someone mentioned interaction with an upper level low. Where is this low and when is it forcast to interact with Irene?
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none
Unregistered
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check out the model its producing some interesting track possibilities.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/IRENE.track.png
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The google map plots on the site have the ability to click on a coordinate point and then display the forecast track from that time. Ie, click a point, a balloon pops up with the coordinate/windspeed information.
At the bottom of the popup balloon is the  button. You can use it to see the forecast error, by... say going back a few points, to see how off (or on) the track is compared to the actual storm path.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Mike
I dont think that plot forcast button is working
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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[image] http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/VIS/20.jpg[/image] Latest image.Sure looks like a TS to me.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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yea i agree bob, shes looking better organized by the 5 AM advisorys each day, maybe we'll have a TS by tonight if not, i'd give it till thursday night, then i think we will have our TS. Irene is a fairly small storm it looks like, im just hoping she stays small and weak for all those on the east coast of the US, the water is to warm for her to stay a TD im afraid, and shes breaking free from the shear and coming closer to that warm SE water. The next 4 days or so should be interesting.
-Ryan 
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
Edited by Ryan (Wed Aug 10 2005 10:40 AM)
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Mike
I dont think that plot forcast button is working
Pam, it probably will only work on the latest browsers and OSs. It uses ajax which older software may not support.
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LI Phil
User
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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As of the 11:00 am advisory, Irene is still a TD, although she is expected to reach TS status sometime over the next 24 hours.
full basin shot
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Phil:
Irene was expected to reach TS status over 2 days ago, we see how well that has been working.
Dave
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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I wish she would hurry up and do it. I think the longer she fools around as a TD or less, the more she moves west instead of a turn. I want this storm out to sea, not making a run to the west after she strengthens
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
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Can you send me a link that shows the high pressure ridge? The ridge that was suppose to have picked her up? If I am asking the right question....................
Let me send this again in case no one saw it the first time. Let's work on this present issue and not start fights this morning. If you want to comment than you need to register and you know who you are.
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
Edited by Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser (Wed Aug 10 2005 11:25 AM)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Agree with you, as long as Irene stays a TD or weak TS she keep on moving west, If Irene is still a TD or a 40mph TS in 48 hours , My feeling is she track west to South Florida as a cat 1 or could reach cat 2 before land fall. if not then she curve up northward to maybe SC.
Dave
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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Posts: 161
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Irene will explode into a cat 3 or stronger...however, the exact path is still too far out to know...
If I were on the east coast...anywhere from Miami to Cape Hatteras...I'd be watching Irene real closely....
take a look at Joe Bastardi's take on it....the high pressure system will keep it south and it WILL impact the U.S....and all the things are there for strengthening...
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