Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Fee like I'm talking to myself:
The 11:00 discussion:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200509.disc.html
-------------------- Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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CarolinaGurl
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We are listening, not much interest in commenting from the folks on south of us. I noticed lots of people reading but not much posting.
-------------------- My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur
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Ryan
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the new path makes me worry little bit, not gonna lie, i really hope she'll turn out to sea, but for those on the NC coast, Irene may be a little bit to close for comfort, and if she follows the path then shes too close to NJNY.
this is me starting to worry, not trying to jump to predicitons i just wisht here was a way to figure out the exacpt path of the storm you know?
Thanks, Ryan
-------------------- 2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Mike does a great job reminding us all of the basic forum rules but, just to refresh everyone, here they are again:
Posting here implies acceptance of the following terms and conditions:
- Participants shall not post any material likely to cause offence, that is protected by copyright, trademark or other proprietary right - without the express permission of the owner of such copyright - or that contains personal phone numbers or addresses.
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Ryan
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yea Hurricane Fernanda, Tropical Storm Greg, and what looks to be a TD are all in line for the cruise on out to sea...
-------------------- 2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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Big Kahuna
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From the 11 AM Discussion:
WHILE THE AND GFDN ARE FARTHER WEST AND BRING IRENE VERY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY 120 HOURS. THE ... HOWEVER... QUICKLY DISSIPATES IRENE AS IT HAS IN THE PAST 48 HOURS OF MODEL RUNS...AND KEEPS THE RIDGE INTACT AND MOVES THE REMNANTS WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE LATTER SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED GIVEN IRENE'S CURRENT WELL ORGANIZED AND IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.
I think its hard to get a good fix on Irene until it possiibly buildsin strength. But with the dryer air its going to run into is it going to happen?
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Old Sailor
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Ed:
If you are in the cone you need to pay attention, Right now that cone covers SC to Mid Jersey.
Dave
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Takingforever
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Philadelphia, PA
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Well it's a matter of hours to see if Irene can show how strong she is again. I jsut remember only a week ago Irene was struggling to even be a tropical depression to even get named.
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ftlaudbob
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Post deleted. Remaining in thread to preserve continuity.
~danielw
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 11 2005 12:35 PM)
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NewWatcher
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we finally have some recon flights scheduled for tomorrow and sat etc.
-------------------- Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Steve H1
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And that's what we really need now is a Recon fix. Otherwise we can't say with much confidence where she may go. Even then, its still dicey. Notice the explosion of convection to the SW of the TS in one of its bands. To me it signifies the potential for some significant strengthening as she goes past say 68W. I want to say that the Carolinas are in the path of Irene. However, I want to see some of the 12Z Globals first. The ensembles were still showing strong ridging on the east coast right down to SC. If this is true, ain't no way she's gonna blow through that ridge. If its weaker/more offshore, Hatteras get nailed. But anyone from Florida to the NE coast needs to watch until there is a better handle of the pattern Upstream and here over the Atlantic. Cheers!!
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Lee-Delray
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Hi-
I was a long time observer, now a first time poster (I read the thread & felt guilty). I know nothing about weather, but have learned a great deal about the science in the last week or so.
For the most part, I find the posts very logical and following methodic patterns.
Though concerned about storms living in S. Fla., I don't get alarmed until they are close. I figure it takes me 5 hours to shutter the house.
I do note however, that tossing "Andrew" around did slightly raise my blood pressure. I do appreciate the comments that suggested it wasn't the same environment.
I have a question; one of the forcaster's at the (Stewart?) was going to retaire and go to Alaska, but decided to stay through the season as he admitted it would be active, but not so for S. FLa. based on the location of the Bermuda high and the correlation to our May rain. Opinions?
Thanks for you patience.
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Ed in Va
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I know it's hard to get a fix on Irene's center, but it looks here like the main convection, at least, is going SW:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
-------------------- Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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AgentB
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Quote:
I know it's hard to get a fix on Irene's center, but it looks here like the main convection, at least, is going SW:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
Ed, that sat is actually of Fernanda in the Pacific. If you click on lat/lon at the top you can see the coordinates. Irene's loop is here.
-------------------- Check the Surf
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stormchazer
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A lot of folks are reading. I myself am not studious enough to comment on the Tropics so I learn and check in on occasions.
My 2 cents on Irene is she appears to still wanna be a fish according to the models. I am holding off judgement until Recon and the NOAA missions do the atmosphere checks. It seems only then, that the modeling takes a firm hold. Of course, Irene might do us all a favor and head North and make those trips unneccessary.
-------------------- Jara
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scottsvb
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The system in the E Pac isnt going sw also. Its moving slowly w or wnw but the has shifted to the southside of the storm.
Now with Irene..
I still think there are 2 centers that are elongated to each other. 1 is near 25.5N 64W and the other is elongated to the se of it near 24.5N and 63W. I think the original low slowed down yesterday due to the midlevel low catching up with it. Pulled it in closer and slowed down its movement. Then last night the LLC started N then NW as the midlevel low went by to its N and W. This morning the LLC has been swung around and excellerated to the WNW of the mid level low ( that is trying to be the main center). The mentioned that its hard to pinpoint a exact center with this. Also they said its elongated. You might of rememberd over the last couple days they had a hard time with this and also questioning the speed yesterday. Well I told ya what I feel what happend with the speed, now we have to look at the models.
If this is elongated and we have 2 centers fighting for position...then we will have a hard time getting this above where its at right now. Lets look at what the future might bring on.....
We have the models UKMet and taking this to the NW then N to near CapeCod. Meantime we have the Canadian and showing a much weaker system and possilbe open wave heading more w towards Florida or Georgia.
The Ive always liked the best and is probably right. But can they both be?
I would come to a compromise and say the 1 center will eventually take over and become the better defined 1. That should be the former mid-level low and it will be the 1 the and Ukmet show moving along 70-72N and near CapeCod. The original lowlevel center will be tossed out as a LLvortex and move w or even wsw towards florida and the bahamas. Not sure if it will develop more or not with alot of sinking air with the ridge off of the Carolinas down the Bahamas.
Anyways thats my thoughts of whats been going on and what will happen. They shoulda put recon in there today but they didnt.
Edited by scottsvb (Thu Aug 11 2005 01:37 PM)
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Clark
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Heard some discussion today about Irene potentially being stronger than it is -- if not stronger than Fernanda in the EPac -- as well as to why the recon planes are not out within the storm at this point.
To address the intensity issue, no one can make an entirely accurate assessment on a storm's intensity based off of a mid-level satellite signature, a comparison between two totally different storms, and off of a simple satellite loop. The microwave data help, as do QuikSCAT for winds. A storm displaying an intermittent eye feature with cloud tops 20C colder than Irene over a consistent, condensed feature is much stronger than Irene is, a storm with an excellent mid-level signature and a weak but developing surface signature. We've seen many storms with very good mid-level signatures come back with much weaker recon estimates -- it also work the other way, to be fair -- and Emily this season is a very good example. Earl from not too long ago did the same. That said, the current intensity of the storm is supported by what we do have -- estimates and QuikSCAT winds -- and will be augmented by recon starting late tomorrow.
Which brings up the question, "where's recon now?" There have been many, many flights thus far this season. Recon flights are generally only flown into storms for 1) research missions or 2) when they are within 3 days of land. All of those central Atlantic storms get flights because they are some threat to the islands or to interests in the Atlantic. Irene is not threatening any land mass at this point and simply put, there is no need to fly a recon flight into the storm at this time. Would it be nice? Sure. But, alas, we can't always get all of the data we like. And, given that plus the current estimates of the storm, the current intensity of Irene is likely quite accurate.
No large change to the forecast reasoning from last night. A shift northward of the cone might be needed for later, but I would like to see more runs with this storm and the evolving ridge pattern to make any drastic change to the projected track. Needless to say, it's one to watch for people from the FL/GA border northward.
-------------------- Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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Ron Basso
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Looking at the VIS SAT I see that Irene is elongating east-west the last several hours. This might be due to her starting to bump into the ridge centered near Bermuda. I think the next 12-24 hours is going to tell us alot about her future movement. The , which doesn't intialize the storm well, shows an ever expanding ridge from now out to 84 hours. Heights increase and the ridge expands westward with the axis from near Bermuda SW to coastal Georgia. If this verifies, it seems like Irene will be bumping into the Great Wall of China. I think from this point forward she will slow down and perhaps change direction to the west or W-NW? Who knows. Or perhaps come to a crawl and meander? I don't see it plowing thru the ridge like UKMET depicts. While the discounts the with Irene's track, I don't discount its building ridge. Makes me wonder where she'll go.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_sfc_mslp&loop=1
-------------------- RJB
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emackl
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Loc: Indianapolis
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Will someone tell me where the goofy center is in this storm? It just looks to me like she's sitting still getting bigger...LOL!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
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Old Sailor
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Scat still 3.0/3.0 so still at 50 mph, looks to be moving at 285 to 290 degrees. 25.4
Dave
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