Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
The biggest difference with this year and Floyd is we have such warm water temps off the mid-atlantic that the storms might not weaken as much before landfall as they move north.
It will be interesting to see whether Irene shucks the models that call for a northward turn yet again...for some reason, given Irene's history, anything that calls for it to go north I look at warily. Irene just doesn't like the term "north."
Being along the Chesapeake Bay myself (albiet well up the bay), I'm watching Irene's track very closely.
--RC
P.S. - Clark: Thanks for that great post about the models! That needs to be archived somewhere 
|
Takingforever
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 43
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
|
|
Till she is going out to sea, I don't think anyone can not be watching this weekend. Are the waters warmer then 1999 or even the past couple of years north of Georgia?
It's something way different and scarier when areas that only seen hurricanes in movies that are in the cone.
Another interesting thing this summer is a book about the Great Hurricane of 1938 just came out, and the farther "North" and stronger this thing gets the more the media will start to talk about that little memory and I'm sure that book will be quoted.
|
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
|
|
The "I" storms do seem to cause a stir. Iris Isabell, all both seemed to confound the models and media. I have to wonder if the timing of the storm has to do with the effects of the storms on the atmosphere before it. The atmosphere has to get into a certain mode in order to support a system of any kind and then relax into a different mode between storms. I wonder if the computer models ever do runs on what the relaxed atmosphere from post storm to post storm looks like so they could anticipate the effects of the storms in the culmination of a 9th+ storm.
--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Quote:
i gotta tell you bob, anything is possible right now but i think its safe to say we will have a EC landfall storm/hurricane the questions are whjere and how strong..unless someone thinks they know this stuff already..i mean just the 1938 hurricane hit long island not RI..but LI has not seen and may not see a storm that bad again..ever..lets hope not
-Ryan
ps-good luck east coasters 
I wasn't going to comment of any of last night's posts, but this one i couldn't let go...ryan...first off, the '38 cane (which was probably a once-in-150 year storm) DID affect Rhode Island, causing 20' flooding in downtown providence, and the strongest wind gust ever recorded at the Blue Hill observatory in NE...pretty much anything that affects LI affects NE as well
1938 LI Express
secondly, while this storm has the potential to affect LI, most of our storms occur more towards the middle of September and later, although earlier storms have occurred...
LI cane history
all this being said...it is WAY TO EARLY to be looking this far down the road...everyone on the EC needs to still be vigilant, although it looks like Fl is out of the woods...just pay attention over the next couple of days as many scenarios are still in play (including completely missing the east coast)...also, intensity will be very hard to predict this far out...climo and warm waters would support a strong cane, but this alone will not guarantee any such development.
pay attention to what the says...they are the official source and they are the ones you should listen to; only use anything you may read on here as "additional" thoughts
i'll post more on irene later
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
I updated again this morning. Still best I can tell recurve out to sea is what has the highest probability for Irene. Dry air is going to be a problem for it gaining much if any strength probably today and tomorrow, and the timing of the curve is everything. I dont' expect a landfall out of Irene, but it's going to be close. Close enough to give doubts on it and folks in the cone should watch.
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
for those of you into JB, this morning he draws 2 parallels between Irene and past storms; there were 2 storms in 1933 (although he favors only the second one) and one in 1936 he feels are good analogs...
1933 Storm 1 (NOT jb's analog):
Google Plot of this with Irene
1933 Storm 2:
Google Plot of this with Irene
1936:
Google Plot of this With Irene
All plotted together with Irene (may be slow)
Edited by MikeC (Thu Aug 11 2005 12:45 PM)
|
Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 489
Loc:
|
|
The first '33 one was the defining moment in Norfolk hurricane history,as the eye went right over the city. I don't think this will be a repeat, though, as I believe it will give Hatteras a glancing blow and head on out to sea.
--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
|
emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
|
|
Is Florida out of the woods yet?? When I saw this am's track I thought we were. However when I read in the discussion about a "possible" westward bend I started thinking maybe not.
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTER JUST EAST OF BERMUDA. AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT...HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND
IRENE'S TRACK COULD TAKE A MORE WESTWARD BEND IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
So which is it? Can I relax or do I have to hold my breath a few more days?
Thanks
|
NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
|
|
I have a question, albeit stupid i am sure but... how much of a high pressure ridge
is needed to keep these storms away, and does that change with the storm intensity
Next wednesday ther is expected to be a HPR over Florida and the southeast but only 1016 mb is that enuff to make a storm like this turn more westerly to avoid it??
--------------------
Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
|
NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
|
|
You can never relax and not watch anymore until the storm has passed your lat/lon. Even then sometimes they come around and bite you in the (you know what)
--------------------
Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
|
Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
|
|
Latest Scat shows 3.0/3.0 so 11AM update at will be 50mph, Irene looks to be tracking allmost NW (300 or 310 degrees) right now or they moved the center to the north somewhat. also models have moved a little to the left..
Dave
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
It's getting close to the point were we can give the ''all clear" to S Florida.  She is looking better with each frame.The forcasters have there hands full with this one.Everyone from SC to NE better keep a close eye on this storm.There also is a nice wave in the E. Atlantic,here we go again.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
|
nl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
|
|
where are the models too show the trend too the left? 
|
Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
|
|
There is a slim chance that Irene could miss the East Coast,, but very close to NC, maybe 25% chance ..
Dave
|
Jax Chris
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 28
Loc: Jacksonville Beach, FL
|
|
Quote:
Is Florida out of the woods yet?? When I saw this am's track I thought we were. However when I read in the discussion about a "possible" westward bend I started thinking maybe not ... So which is it? Can I relax or do I have to hold my breath a few more days?
As long as it's still spinning, it still needs to be watched. One of my favorite examples is Hurricane Doria (1967) http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1967/DORIA/track.gif which started life at latitude 28.5 N, heading for the coast of southern Florida, did a sharp 180 just off the shore, headed out to sea, did another 180 at 36.9 N latitude and about due north of Bremuda, came back and hit North Carolina from the NORTH, then headed back out to sea and died at latitude 29.5 N -- which is back down to Florida latitudes. Just because they're north of you and heading east doesn't mean that they're done with you.
Jax Chris
|
Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
|
|
Latest Model run
Latest model run
|
NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
|
|
Yes i noticed the slightly leftward turn of the models, but i also notice at the end
of the period, a hard right... out to sea... turn. I am wondering if this is due to the intensity change, and the idea that now she will run around that ridge before it builds more to the west???
--------------------
Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
|
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
|
|
It's a little odd to me ,seems there is not much interest in Irene here.Not many people are on the forum.Maybe because it is not a real threat to FL.Just kinda surprised.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
|
Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
|
|
I notice this week that the Epac is getting back to normal as for the number of Stroms, 1 Hurricane , 1 TD and looks to be another TD coming, What effect this has on the Atlantic basin it may bring the number of storms in the Atlantic back to normal.. Any input from the Mets on here as to their take on the Epac.
Dave
|
Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 489
Loc:
|
|
11:00 models move to the right, with no NC landfall:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200509_5day.html
Correction: Not models, but projected path.
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Thu Aug 11 2005 02:48 PM)
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
