Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 21 (Milton) , Major: 21 (Milton) Florida - Any: 21 (Milton) Major: 21 (Milton)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | >> (show all)
NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
NEW INVEST 96L [Re: Unregistered User]
      #47639 - Fri Aug 12 2005 07:45 AM

Navy site has the new invest 96L up this a.m.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...es&DISPLAY=

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 435
Re: Is this possible? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #47640 - Fri Aug 12 2005 07:51 AM

said a few days ago as soon as this thing gets a little farther it will turn and go bub bye.

All models now have it going fishing.Bub Bye now to wait on the next one.

Lets hope you are correct ralph...obviously you have more meterological experience than the rest of us.

Edited by LI Phil (Fri Aug 12 2005 08:58 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged:
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: NEW INVEST 96L [Re: NewWatcher]
      #47641 - Fri Aug 12 2005 08:12 AM

Models for AL962005:



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Is this possible? [Re: ralphfl]
      #47642 - Fri Aug 12 2005 08:15 AM

I don't know raphfl, looks like the visible loops show heading in a westerly direction now. She may well be feeling the effects of the ridging. Watch the area to the SSE of the convection. Cheers!!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Is this possible? [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #47643 - Fri Aug 12 2005 08:28 AM

See the same thing, although she's still so disorganized that it's hard to tell where the center is.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged:
Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: NEW INVEST 96L [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #47644 - Fri Aug 12 2005 08:30 AM

96L will be another interesting one to watch, I never like initial model runs, so I'm going to hold off on it. Thanks for the map though, Jonathan.

I'm going to be gone until Monday, so hopefully nothing too bad happens while I'm gone. Ed will be around, and probably John. Keep watching Irene, folks.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: NEW INVEST 96L [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #47645 - Fri Aug 12 2005 08:34 AM

Quote:

Models for AL962005:



What is AL962005? That's not Irene ...?

'shana

eta: Oh ... 96L. OK. New Invest.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Floridacane
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: Is this possible? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #47646 - Fri Aug 12 2005 08:35 AM

At first I thought west also, but looking at it again it looks like the buildup of convection on the south and west side are giving the illusion of a more westerly jog. But, they, (I think it was the NHC) did say that some erratic movement could take place.

--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Floridacane
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: NEW INVEST 96L [Re: ShanaTX]
      #47647 - Fri Aug 12 2005 08:36 AM

Shana, that the new invest (wave). 96L

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html



--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori

Edited by Floridacane (Fri Aug 12 2005 08:38 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Is this possible? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #47648 - Fri Aug 12 2005 08:39 AM

Agree Ed. The first few frames of the Vis SAT seem to show the LLC of Irene toward the south end of deep convection. It still appears that the MLC is northeast of the LLC, although overall appearance is better than yesterday. I also noticed during the last frames that she appears to be moving more westerly than NW and perhaps slowing a little. It's really difficult to tell - we need the recon out there for some information.

I find it curious now that the latest 00Z runs of UKMET, GFS, & CMC all dissipate the storm as the ridge strongly builds over and to the north of Irene. Now, only the NOGAPS shows the storm surviving and moving N-NW, but then stalling it off New England at the end of 5 days.

--------------------
RJB


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Is this possible? [Re: Ron Basso]
      #47649 - Fri Aug 12 2005 08:48 AM

Dumb question..is the ridge what is showing is light blue to the west of Irene?

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Is this possible? [Re: Ron Basso]
      #47650 - Fri Aug 12 2005 08:49 AM

Yeah Ron I saw that also. A bit disturbing 'cause the models are banking on an environment that's dry with an overbearing ridge. Let's see what things unfold today.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beach
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Question [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #47651 - Fri Aug 12 2005 08:55 AM

Looking at the WV loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

Here's my question:
Is the "High" ridge on the side where the water vapor is moving W to E. Or is it on the North side pushing in from the W. Is Irene expected to bust through what looks like a water vapor bridge from FL out to Bermuda?
Sorry if this is a newbee question.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beach
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Re: Is this possible? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #47652 - Fri Aug 12 2005 08:56 AM

I think I just asked the same question in a very round about way.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
J.C.
Unregistered




Re: Is this possible? [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #47653 - Fri Aug 12 2005 09:17 AM

12z models on front page are out. They have shown a little more of a west track than earlier but yet they have it approaching the coast of NC then begining to take a sharp right to the NE. NHC at 5am however had the storm at least 180 milies east of Morehead City NC but yet the strike probability was at 7%. I believe that even with all the info from models thay are still not sure. Does anyone think this thing could hit land south of Hatteras before hooking right and out to sea. My best guess is still a fish problem. Any thoughts?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Is this possible? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #47654 - Fri Aug 12 2005 09:21 AM

The NHC mentioned a left turn but not this early. Interesting storm huh?

THE FORECAST
TRACK CALLS FOR A SLIGHT LEFT TURN DURING THE FIRST 36-48 HR


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Is this possible? [Re: Beach]
      #47655 - Fri Aug 12 2005 09:28 AM

Ed and Beach:

The ridge is centered just to the east of Bermuda with a bridge over to another center off of the east coast of Florida. The storm likely will not split the ridge betwen the 2 high centers because its strong and forecast to strengthen over the next couple of days. The western axis is also forecast to slowly drift north to a latitude of Daytona Beach by Sunday. What does this mean? In the short term, probably a slowing of the storm and perhaps more of a W-NW or W motion. Some models show an eroding of the western side of the Bermuda High in 72 hours and this is what NHC is forecasting to move the storm N-NW.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html

--------------------
RJB


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Takingforever
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 43
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
It's all what the ridge and the Cold front do [Re: J.C.]
      #47656 - Fri Aug 12 2005 09:32 AM

What way Irene goes in the end all comes down to if storm goes through the ridge it about to hit today and when the Cold Front from Canada goes through New Jersey.

If the Ridge pushes Irene south of it, NC and SC will be on the map. If not then the cold front will be the story.

The Cold Front was suppose to go through tonight but the High off of the coast is keeping it away from going through till Monday, and by then Irene is going to be really really close.

If the Cold front stals for a day or more, Irene will hit someone...Just don't know where. NC? Virgina? Maryland/Delware? New Jersey? It's a matter of how Irene survives hitting the ridge


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: It's all what the ridge and the Cold front do [Re: Takingforever]
      #47657 - Fri Aug 12 2005 09:58 AM

Just watching the post by Joe Bastardi at Accuweather, and he insists that Irene will have an impact on the East Coast. Did anyone catch his remarks. I'm looking at all the features, and assume that New Jersey/Delmarva locations could actually be the ones who could get smacked with this. Obviously assuming what the RECON flight relays back to the NHC.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: It's all what the ridge and the Cold front do [Re: The Force 2005]
      #47658 - Fri Aug 12 2005 10:08 AM

Funny thing is only a couple models show her ever breaking 70w
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200509_model.html

The way she's looks to be moving can she miss it?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 798 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 80941

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center