Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Frank,
What are the chances of it getting past 70W before hitting 30 N?
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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tough question... all depends how much influence the ridge has on her... some are insisting she is moving more westerly than NWerly... I'm not sure... if she goes more west then it very possible, if she more northwestly then it will not happen.... perhaps one of pros can better address the question cause they're a heck of a lot smarter than me...
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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I just watched JB's video and i gotta tell ya.......he was ticked! One reason was the absence of recon, which we all know now is underway. Secondly, he (JB) can't understand why the models, the and lots of other mets are saying that Irene will take a NW path and then North away from land. He strongly believes the high will push Irene more westard and into NC, possibly as a cat 3. Now this is NOT my take on it, so please don't think i am wishing anything bad, just relaying to ya'll what he is saying. I dont think he wants it to hit NC, but he seemed pretty peeved that everyone is predicting the storm to curve away from land. Any thoughts on that??
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
Edited by damejune2 (Fri Aug 12 2005 03:23 PM)
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mikeG
Unregistered
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URNT12 KNHC 121836
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/18:14:10Z
B. 28 deg 27 min N
067 deg 05 min W
C. 850 mb 1412 m
D. 60 kt
E. 314 deg 023 nm
F. 053 deg 057 kt
G. 315 deg 024 nm
H. EXTRAP 997 mb
I. 17 C/ 1526 m
J. 22 C/ 1524 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C80
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF307 0109A IRENE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 57 KT NW QUAD 18:06:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE
this was earlier, now on obs 10
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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Well IMO he is a idiot.But he has nothing to back up his claims.Number 1 this is not got much chance to get past cat 1 since the water it will be going into is cooled water from the last 2 storms and him saying it is going to go out to sea does not sell stories.
Saying otherwise does.I did not see where he said a cat 3 storm but that is stupid since the water temps and shear dont support that at all.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Joe B has great passion for his weather... however, sometimes he just misses the boat... sometimes not.. I'm not saying either in this case because I just don't know what its going to do.. but I think the has much a much better talent pool and think tank than Joe B could ever have... and once he takes position on his forecast he doesn't like to back off... with he really screwed up IMO... 12-18 hours out he was still saying was going to hit the mouth of the river and perhaps New Orleans, and we all know that wasn't even close..
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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He did mention that perhaps a cat 3 could form if it took a more westward path....but didnt say it would be that strength if it indeed did hit land. At any rate it should be a minimal cat 1 by tonight or tomorrow morning. There is some cooler water around that area, but still warmer than normal for that part of the east coast.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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mikeG
Unregistered
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on outbound leg
MF28.0n M066.6w MF 064kts \ fl winds
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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He doesn't like backing down, but i don't think he is an idiot like someone mentioned. The is much better and their information is what i use for my planning purposes. I just wanted to see what everyone else's thoughts were on it. He has been saying for almost a week now that NC would/could be in trouble; just like he did or does with New Orleans. Let's hope he is wrong, again, and it heads out to sea.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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mikeG
Unregistered
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man, when was the last time there was this kind of pattern going on in the se us?
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeir3.html
water vapor
almost looks like there are three lows spread out....left to right
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Gainesville, FL
Unregistered
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...Looks like the latest BAMM has it preparing to do what looks like a loop. It's the only model showing that so far.
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OcalaKT
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 27
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Quote:
...Looks like the latest BAMM has it preparing to do what looks like a loop. It's the only model showing that so far.
Can you give a link?
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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Looks like it's eating away the the first ridge...any chance it will do that with the bigger one?
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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mikeG
Unregistered
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wow, looks like a p-3 is out there with the g-iv and af
URNT10 KWBC 121924
97779 19244 60285 69500 50800 35018 53713 /8031
RMK NOAA3 WX09A IRENE OB 04 KWBC
and the g-iv is out
61616 NOAA9 0209A IRENE OB 04
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superfly
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 33
Loc: New Orleans
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Correction on the vortex data...8nm closed eye, not 80nm.
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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Quote:
wow, looks like a p-3 is out there with the g-iv and af
URNT10 KWBC 121924
97779 19244 60285 69500 50800 35018 53713 /8031
RMK NOAA3 WX09A IRENE OB 04 KWBC
and the g-iv is out
61616 NOAA9 0209A IRENE OB 04
I feel like an idiot... English please? p-3? (airplane type? What's so special about a p3?)
g-iv????
'shana (who's really really trying to keep up)
P3
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Seems that Recon has correct their 0 placement.....Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: C08 sounds better then 80...lol
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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and maybe that's why it was so hard to find.. I feel better.... 
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Reaper
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 45
Loc: Lake Placid, Fla
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Quote:
Quote:
...Looks like the latest BAMM has it preparing to do what looks like a loop. It's the only model showing that so far.
Can you give a link?
Try this: http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=9&Year=2005
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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10 NM is small and 8 well just hard find, that is a very small storm right now.
Dave
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