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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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damejune2
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Re: TWD [Re: ralphfl]
      #48272 - Thu Aug 18 2005 10:39 PM

We lost power for about 2 seconds, in fact, that usually happens when these little storms come through. Last year during all them storms; we never lost power once....weird how a little thunderstorm comes through and the power goes off and on a few times and sometimes off for a while, but when something tropical gets close - we never lose power and it never goes off and on....strange.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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dem05
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Re: TWD [Re: ralphfl]
      #48273 - Thu Aug 18 2005 10:43 PM

Here in Tallahassee, it is always hot and still, but the humidity has seeemed higher here this year too. Outside of this...When storms do develop, there seems to have been more cloud to ground lightning in Tallahassee than normal this year too. I wonder if Clark could comment on this. I lived in Charlotte County til 8 years ago and always noticed there just wasn't as much of that kind of lightning up here since I moved. Either way, I feel that humidity and lightning will have little effect on the course of '05 hurricanes. This state has just been fairly wet for the last 12 months. Lots of evaporation...
P.S. Some may want to post bounty on me for saying this, but X-10 is still trying to offer it's typical evening stunt. Development or not, it just might be interesting to watch till something gobbles it up. Maybe something can be learned from that.


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jbmusic
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Re: TWD [Re: damejune2]
      #48275 - Thu Aug 18 2005 11:02 PM

Where in Manatee are you. I live on the east side, we didn't have much rain heard thunder in the distance. Lights never even flickered. But have to admit the afternoon thunderstorms have been the worst I have ever seen and I have lived here for 40yrs

--------------------
Jenny Bradenton, Florida
www.bbdigitalphoto.com


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ralphfl
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Re: TWD [Re: jbmusic]
      #48276 - Thu Aug 18 2005 11:18 PM

Too many in Manatee county on this site.Your not a Sox's fan too are you? not sure i could take 2 of you on this site from the same city as me

Im on the west side of the same city as you.


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Big Red Machine
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Re: TWD [Re: ralphfl]
      #48277 - Thu Aug 18 2005 11:27 PM

I used to have family that lived off 9th st between cortez and 53rd, I believe. I love the Sarasota/Bradenton area. very pretty over there. Since I've lived in FL (7 yrs now) property values have really shot up over there. More than most places. (and it's gotten a lot more crowded). I can't imagine the return folks who bought a lot in Lkwood Ranch back when it was just starting are getting now. Incredible.

this post and the ones before it: these are PM topics. talking about where you live with no weather relevance doesn't belong on the main board... even if it is interesting. keep it on another forum, PM, or embed it with on-topic material and it's ok. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Aug 19 2005 12:17 AM)


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Steve H1
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Re: TWD [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48278 - Thu Aug 18 2005 11:42 PM

Hey guys/gals, hate to say this, but old 10 is getting back some form. Notice the convective outer band where convection is breaking out to the west and SW ahead of it? Some deeper convection near the "center" as well. Think this one may make one more run at trying to grow up. Shear is weakening now. Cheers!!

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ralphfl
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Re: TWD [Re: Steve H1]
      #48281 - Fri Aug 19 2005 12:04 AM

thanks for the post but i just dont see it but that is your opinion but i dont see it.

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Clark
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Re: TWD [Re: dem05]
      #48282 - Fri Aug 19 2005 12:09 AM

Tallahassee has seen it's share of cloud-to-ground lightning this year...don't know if it's abnormal, though, as this part of the world ranks up there pretty highly globally in terms of c-g & overall lightning strikes. Lightning strikes are often driven by charge separation and ice content and I don't have any readily available way to judge either, unfortunately. Perhaps someone around here will do a study on it someday with the data...

The SW Carib vort max is perking up again over the past few hours. Now it's got it's shot for development (in the short-term; still long long-term is a better bet), trying to look like a classic case of tropical cyclogenesis: convective blowup spins-up a mid-level center, only to have the convection die out for some period of time. Then, given a moister environment due to the previous convection and a mid-level circulation to focus the heating about, convection rebuilds. The next step is for the low-level circulation to spin-up as a response to this new convective burst and the strengthening mid-level feature...whether that happens or not remains to be seen. It's pretty close to land, though; given it's size and location, the upper-low to the NW isn't going to be too unfavorable. We've seen two storms spin up like this so far this season, though both in the Gulf. Will this make 3? As Scott has said for the past few days, it's got a shot... Still do think the Gulf area is going to be better for this to get going in a couple more days, though only time will tell on that account.

Ex-TD 10 is firing convection again and has largely been discussed by HF & others this evening, so I'll pass there. The convection isn't all that organized and the low-level center that had been there for days is gone. It's a little behind the aforementioned wave in the process, but still has a shot. Less than 50/50 now, probably 33/67 if anything (favoring not developing). If all of this pans out like it might, Scott will have nailed it several days out...not bad at all.

African wave feature is ~2 days away now...models aren't as bullish on it immediately, but still take something across the basin (to varying degrees of intensity). They're trending further north with it, likely leading to any quick-developing storm just spinning fish and not getting far to the west. Watch it over the weekend...might be something then.

EPac wave near 90-95W keeps going in cycles...it's what happens when features like the SW Carib. wave don't take that next leap and maintain themselves over time. Still some support for development and still favorable conditions for it to do so, but think only one or the other of it and the SW Carib. feature will get going, at least in the short-term.

Have a good night, everyone.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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HanKFranK
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Re: TWD [Re: Clark]
      #48283 - Fri Aug 19 2005 12:25 AM

well.. for the sw carib thing.. that's slow brew stuff. it's on enough models to merit attention, but they're all giving different versions.
if x10 redevelops scott did get the redevelopment window right (though it'd been arguably classifiable prior to thursday). now all he needs is a straight north track for anything that develops and it's score two. my take is further west... bahamas area. going for the split. it looks a lot better tonight... maybe if that convection can hang around another 12hrs or so.
the african waves have been shearing off recently... and in very dry environs. the synoptic environment near west africa looks to have improved slightly. better bet that part of the basin is ready to produce when a wave comes off and doesn't evaporate in 12-24 hrs.
HF 0425z19august


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dem05
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Re: TWD [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48285 - Fri Aug 19 2005 12:47 AM

Something I think I've noticed with X10. As it got better looking earlier tonight, I was thinking that's interesting, but that trough to the wnw is gonna hurt it again. The water vapor seems to she that trough filling and/or pulling out.
WV Floater loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
Also, I love shortwave sat at night. Watching it I thought I saw a band to the south, wrapping around to the west, then northward...Then I thought I saw a second one form closer...They are there now and there might be a third one forming even closer now.
Shortwave link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html
Maybe it's a fighter...Remeber how quickly Franklin changed his look when he went from wave to TD in this neighborhood. On the other hand, it could be fooling us again, but I'm starting to question that myself.

Edited by dem05 (Fri Aug 19 2005 12:48 AM)


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


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Re: TWD [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48286 - Fri Aug 19 2005 04:00 AM

We had Charlie, Jean and Frances all about 3 weeks apart last year. These fantastic numbers of named storms are going to have to get on the ball or the year's forecast will kind of bust. But it seems that with the inflation of gas prices, taxes added to the central Florida counties, and the real estate insurances through the roof or non existent, that the next "big" one could finish us all off here in Central Florida in the financial sectors. Everyone is feeling the squeeze. The dry environment that keeps melting those convective waves may influence those numbers or extend the Tropical season into January. I can not imagine how much longer these high heat days will last. They are reminiscent of 1998, when Florida had a severe fire season.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.

Edited by GuppieGrouper (Fri Aug 19 2005 04:02 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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00Z Friday Models [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #48287 - Fri Aug 19 2005 04:40 AM

Checking the 19/ 00Z, tropical cyclone genesis models.
GFS brings the remnants of XTD 10 into the FL Peninsula. Very low vorticity
CMC follows suit with XTD 10. Develops wave off of Africa, and brings it to 20N/ 40W.
NOGAPS is in agreement with GFS and CMC as above. But has the African wave passing South of the Cape Verde Isles.

The 18/12Z MM5FSU model takes the remnants of XTD 10 into the Atlantic between Bermuda and the East Coast. Also depicting the African wave, in the same general area as the newer models.
**Note-None of the above models develops XTD 10. A vorticity signature is all that they are showing.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


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Old Sailor
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Re: 00Z Friday Models [Re: danielw]
      #48289 - Fri Aug 19 2005 06:25 AM

Nobody seems to want to drop XTD 10, Here is my take on XTD 10, This is a MLC enbedded in the wave, more I think about XTD 10 is was never a TD only look to be one this would explain the ups and downs for the last week.
Dave


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lonny307
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Re: 00Z Friday Models [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48292 - Fri Aug 19 2005 08:16 AM

I'm getting bored of TD10 wave. Can't wait till the cape verd season starts going. The water wapor loops shows more moisture out in the Atlantic. A good sign of things to come. I think when it pops it will make June and July seem like a puppy. Be safe and prepared this year.

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Ron Basso
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Re: Tropical Wave north of PR [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48293 - Fri Aug 19 2005 08:28 AM

Quote:

Nobody seems to want to drop XTD 10, Here is my take on XTD 10, This is a MLC enbedded in the wave, more I think about XTD 10 is was never a TD only look to be one this would explain the ups and downs for the last week.
Dave




Dave, I have to respectfully disagree with you about old TD10. There was clearly a LLC intact for 2-3 days until about 24 hours ago. My take was that it was always a TD until yesterday. What possibly led to the demise of the LLC was the easterly surge of dry air that caught up to the system & disrupted the circulation. Overnight & this am another impressive burst of convection with the MLC near 19.5N-64W. Will it develop? Probably less than 50% chance but who knows. The latest 06Z GFS brings the wave into the peninsula early-to-mid next week. We could use the rain on the west coast of FL.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

--------------------
RJB


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J.C.
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Wave north of PR [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48294 - Fri Aug 19 2005 08:36 AM

After looking at the 1145z vis sat, I see what looks to be 2 small areas of convection. I realize that both have not persisted for a long period of time but my question is could 1 of these 2 areas get going from what used to be #10 even though there was no decernable closed area from recon yesterday? Also noticed an area of convection off t he coast of Ga. Does anyone no what to make of that or will it just die off too? J.C.

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HurricaneWeary
Unregistered




Wishcasting [Re: lonny307]
      #48295 - Fri Aug 19 2005 08:43 AM

..............I'm getting bored of TD10 wave. Can't wait till the cape verd season starts going. The water wapor loops shows more moisture out in the Atlantic. A good sign of things to come. I think when it pops it will make June and July seem like a puppy. Be safe and prepared this year. ...............

Looney-Bored with a TD that never developed? "A GOOD SIGN" of more hurricane activity? I take it you dont own property in Florida. Looney, perfect name....
on that token, is it loony to own property in florida or loony to expect hurricanes to leave it alone? by the way, keep the personal comments like this in PM form, or add some on-topic thoughts that aren't merely conversational or dramatic. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Aug 19 2005 08:54 AM)


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native
Weather Guru


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Re: Tropical Wave north of PR [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48296 - Fri Aug 19 2005 09:29 AM

I'm mmmeeellllttiiinnnggg! I certainly do not want ANY hurricanes/TD/TS's this year. I just want some RAIN! As my screen name aptly suggests, I've lived in FL since the day I came into this world. I lived in Cent.FL for 17 yrs. & here in Deerfield Beach (extreme NE Broward Co. ) for the last 18 yrs. I cannot recall a more humid, hot and stagnant August. Not a single leaf is fluttering. You'd think that being right here on the beach there'd at least be some sort of sea breeze...nothing! I'd settle for a puff right now. The air is so still and thick with humidity. I don't even remember the last time it's rained here. Seriously, I think it was late July. That wave just N of PR...they're saying on the news here that it will hopefully bring us at least the "chance" for rain come Sunday/Monday. Only a 30% chance, but we'll take it. Good thing for all concerned that there's nothing coming down the pike now. Could you imagine no power-A/C now?? YIKES!

I'm off - to do a rain dance or something....


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Gainesville, FL
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Wave north of PR [Re: native]
      #48297 - Fri Aug 19 2005 09:44 AM

In the Atlantic, off the FL/GA border, there looks to be some sort of little spin with convection (looking at an IR satellite loop... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html) Any chance of this developing?

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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


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Re: 00Z Friday Models [Re: danielw]
      #48298 - Fri Aug 19 2005 10:02 AM

Daniel,

How about starting a new thread!!!!


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