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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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NONAME
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Re: Old TD10 [Re: Rabbit]
      #48159 - Wed Aug 17 2005 04:29 PM

The models should be able to get a good grip on TD 10 tomorrow when recon goes in there. I'm thinking they will find a tropical storm in it. This year NHC hasn't done very well with sheared storms this year and so the intensity is usually higher than what they say when recon goes in there remember Franklin and Harvey!¿?

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NONAME
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Re: Old TD10 [Re: NONAME]
      #48160 - Wed Aug 17 2005 04:50 PM

NHC In its surface forecast says TD 10 will be over Porte Rico at 48hours and in the northern Bahamas in 72hours and has a ridge extending from notherneastern gulf to the a high in the atlantic.

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rmbjoe1954
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Re: Old TD10 [Re: NONAME]
      #48161 - Wed Aug 17 2005 04:54 PM

And as the ridge pulls back eastward over the Atlantic then that should pick up TD10 in a northerly direction following in Irene's geenral path.

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________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Rabbit
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Re: Old TD10 [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #48162 - Wed Aug 17 2005 05:09 PM

all of the models show something in the southern Gulf of Mexico in 72 hours (very close to where Gert developed) and something off the coast of Africa in 120 hours

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NONAME
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Re: Old TD10 [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #48163 - Wed Aug 17 2005 05:10 PM Attachment (307 downloads)

Here is an Intresting projected Path!


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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.

Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 17 2005 11:03 PM)


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pedro
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Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: MikeC]
      #48164 - Wed Aug 17 2005 05:15 PM

Dont think this system is going to turn north like Irene strong high pressure would make it move more to the west and west north west.

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Random Chaos
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Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: pedro]
      #48165 - Wed Aug 17 2005 05:36 PM

Something about 10 just says "It won't give up easily" and the continuing convection just adds to that idea.

The storm tracks, while highly inaccurate on weak storms, certainly place the southeastern seaboard under the gun: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif


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lonny307
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Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #48166 - Wed Aug 17 2005 06:17 PM

I pretty sure this system will stay east of Florida. A front/trough is heading down the NE coast next week. The front could make it to N. Fl. This could open up the tropics. Starting next week. That is what some of the global models were depicting. Have to wait and see if it verifies.

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craigm
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Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: lonny307]
      #48167 - Wed Aug 17 2005 07:17 PM

This is a 72 hour forecast from the NWS issued at 8:30 this morning. Not showing much weakness in the ridge. Remember this is only a forecast not prescience.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
Here's more:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/atcfwb/docs/current_storms/al902005.tcf

Edited by craigm (Wed Aug 17 2005 07:55 PM)


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Kevin
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Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: craigm]
      #48168 - Wed Aug 17 2005 08:02 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Ex TD 10's convective pattern is looking rather disorganized this evening.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

The system is also running into another area of shear at this time.

Judging from what I see now, I believe that tomorrow (Thursday) is the absolute earliest that we see the reclassification of TD 10. But I'm thinking more Friday, possibly even Saturday.

A longer post is coming up, perhaps tomorrow.


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HanKFranK
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convective pattern [Re: Kevin]
      #48169 - Wed Aug 17 2005 08:28 PM

it's either at the diurnal minimum or in real trouble for the first time in its life. there hasn't been any deep convection.. just scattered stuff.. since earlier today. it does look like the circulation broadened some today as well. be kinda anticlimatic for TD 10 to persist for 3 days after declassification, make us all expect it to regenerate.. and then puff out as it nears an improved environment.
i'd say the earlier near certainty of regeneration is down to a strong possibility. if the convective pattern stays weak for the next few hours the chances begin to lengthen significantly.
it has overnight to liven up. if it still looks this way tomorrow morning i'd expect recon to be cancelled.
HF 0028z18august


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NONAME
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Re: convective pattern [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48170 - Wed Aug 17 2005 09:06 PM

I remember Irene almost when kaput right before it went in to a favorable environment and then just explode with convection the next morning. I think that is what 10 is doing must be some kind of adjustment to favorable environment.

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scottsvb
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Re: convective pattern [Re: NONAME]
      #48171 - Wed Aug 17 2005 10:04 PM

Well they didnt upgrade it to a TD at 5pm and rightfully so. The pressure maybe be there but the lack of T-Storms near the center and us all seeing the flare ups are being induced by the upper low to its NW, tells us the system is just holding its own. I wouldnt be surprised if they cancel the flight tomorrow unless a major flare-up happens later tonight. Still its not the system doing it,,its the upper low to its NW. Seriously though, I wouldnt worry about this until maybe near 70w if its still around and by then its a system going to be pulled out due to the strong trough off the east coast by the weekend into early next week.

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Old Sailor
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Central Caribbean.. [Re: HanKFranK]
      #48172 - Wed Aug 17 2005 10:05 PM

Most are watching X TD10 or 96L, I'm more interested in that big flare up in the central Caribbean this evening if the convection hangs around for 12 to 24 hours this could be trouble no signs of convection moving right now..

Dave


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Clark
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Re: Central Caribbean.. [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48174 - Wed Aug 17 2005 10:10 PM

That activity in the central Caribbean is just south of a sharp upper-level trough across much of the Greater Antilles and central Caribbean, largely forced by divergent upper-level winds. If the trough were to fill and the convection persist, it might do something, but odds are that the trough will stay in place. It'll help to keep the convection going, but it should stay unorganized as a result. As the energy moves more to the NW, it might have a better shot...just my thinking right now, though.

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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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scottsvb
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Re: Central Caribbean.. [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48175 - Wed Aug 17 2005 10:14 PM

The central carribean area looks good on infrered, but its induced by the trough and upper low extending from the western carribean NE through hispaniola NE into the central and northern Atlantic. A ridge is trying to form near Aruba extending into the sw carribean. Expect the upperlow to be extended into a trough over central america over the next day or so as a ridge from Aruba moves west into ther western Carribean. A low is forming now just east of Nicaragua. This will move slowly NW to just east of Belieze tomorrow and into the Yucitan and BOC or GOM later this weekend. Still I forecast this to have the best chance of developing.

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Old Sailor
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Re: Central Caribbean.. [Re: Clark]
      #48176 - Wed Aug 17 2005 10:16 PM

Clark:
I hope you are right, just that history has shown that a large convection in Central or Western Caribbean that hangs in there for 24 hours some how becomes a Storm.

Dave


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Steve
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Re: Central Caribbean.. [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48177 - Wed Aug 17 2005 10:26 PM

>>where?~danielw

It's an attachment to his post.

Steve

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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
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Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: craigm]
      #48178 - Wed Aug 17 2005 10:35 PM

Quote:

This is a 72 hour forecast from the NWS issued at 8:30 this morning. Not showing much weakness in the ridge. Remember this is only a forecast not prescience.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
Here's more:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/atcfwb/docs/current_storms/al902005.tcf




The link in the NRL site show this as a possible invest. It also show it at 16N and 56W. The recon on the first flight tomorrow is at 19.2N and 61.2W. So is this the same or is the al90 that the NRL is showing a all different area?


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Kevin
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Re: Will Tropical Depression Ten Reform? [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #48179 - Wed Aug 17 2005 10:41 PM

Man-I thought ex TD 10 looked bad earlier this evening...really starting to look like hell now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

As HF said earlier tonight, this system might be experiencing its first bout with real trouble. I'm beginning to lean towards no development...we'll see how it looks in the morning.


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