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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Beaumont, TX
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Re: Back To Life? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #48204 - Thu Aug 18 2005 12:27 PM

I noticed the NHC is still planning to send a plane out even though the system (ex-TD 10 ) is looking less organized. Are they doing this because the system is closer to the islands? Also, what is hindering development at this time?

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Big Kahuna
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Re: Back To Life? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #48205 - Thu Aug 18 2005 12:30 PM

According to the NHC-
Convection - Generally, transport of heat and moisture by the movement of a fluid. In meteorology, the term is used specifically to describe vertical transport of heat and moisture, especially by updrafts and downdrafts in an unstable atmosphere. The terms "convection" and "thunderstorms" often are used interchangeably, although thunderstorms are only one form of convection. Cbs, towering cumulus clouds, and ACCAS clouds all are visible forms of convection. However, convection is not always made visible by clouds. Convection which occurs without cloud formation is called dry convection, while the visible convection processes referred to above are forms of moist convection.


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Big Red Machine
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Re: Back To Life? [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #48206 - Thu Aug 18 2005 12:39 PM

Beaumont, plane is actually on it's way now. We should begin getting reports from the system in roughly 2 hours.

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NONAME
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Re: Back To Life? [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #48207 - Thu Aug 18 2005 12:57 PM

Looks like banding features and outflow are becoming more apparent. I suspect Recon will find a TD or maybe a Odd Tropical storm. It convection is also getting better.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.


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Bloodstar
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(ex)TD-10 and 13N 82W? [Re: NONAME]
      #48208 - Thu Aug 18 2005 01:07 PM

So, If I have a theory, I think the collapse of thunderstorms killed the tight center that ex TD10 had held for the last few days, but the general circulation still held together while the inner part has been rebuilding over the last several hours. The shear is still eating the storm alive. but it's not dead yet. I'd say a weak depression after Recon.

Now, there's a broad area of low pressure around 13N 82W, there is a lot of convection there, but, what would it take to get it's act together and become a Tropical Depression?

-Mark

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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student


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Clark
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Re: Back To Life? [Re: NONAME]
      #48209 - Thu Aug 18 2005 01:10 PM

There's a very, very weak low level center...at best. The circulation appears to have opened up on the south side overnight, with very little in the way of discernable cloud motions to the east on the southern side of the system. A recent microwave imager pass suggests a very broad area of lower pressure near 19N/61W, but gives no indication of the banding features present over the past few days at lower levels. We'll know more once recon gets out there (thanks Brad), but the chances for this one are dwindling. Convection is going much like it did yesterday...blowing up, looking somewhat organized in the late morning hours (ET), only to become disorganized later in the day. If a new center were to form near 19N/58.5W, it might have a shot...but that's iffy at best.

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Edited by Clark (Thu Aug 18 2005 01:28 PM)


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scottsvb
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Re: Back To Life? [Re: NONAME]
      #48210 - Thu Aug 18 2005 01:12 PM

Well we have my system that is close to TD status down there in the SW Carribean but the NHC wont upgrade it at 5pm cause they expect it to move into Nicaragua-Honduras by tonight or most likely tomorrow morning. Surface data show a circulation and pressures near 1007mb. Vis sat also show it near 11.5N and 80.8W with convection near the center. IF this was off the east coast of Florida or anywhere in the U.S> they would upgrade this immediatly.
Anyways I expect this to possibly move onshore near ne Nicargua near the Honduras boarder and then move offshore N of there and move NNW near Belieze and the Yucitan later Friday night into Saturday. I bet later Friday into Sat the NHC will pay alot more attention to this. WIth the trough coming down into the N Gulf Sunday into early next week, it could push anything in the eastern gulf ne across florida, and anything in the central gulf N and NNE between N.O and the Panhandle. IF the system is in the BOC or western gulf then if will probably miss the trough and move onshore Mx. Anyways thats my thoughts and this does support a TD,


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Clark
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Re: (ex)TD-10 and 13N 82W? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #48211 - Thu Aug 18 2005 01:15 PM

That area near 13N/82W is really tied to an upper-level low. It's pretty close to a fledgling EPac disturbance near 90W as well. They've got to become further separated and upper-level winds need to improve for that one to have a shot...it's also got to stay over water. Maybe down the line if it gets to the Bay of Campeche, but probably not in the short-term.

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Brad in Miami
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Re: Back To Life? [Re: Clark]
      #48212 - Thu Aug 18 2005 01:18 PM

Clark:

I agree with everything you said about former TD 10 - the circulation does appear to have opened up, and what someone else characterized as banding features appear to be just convection being sheared away - but I have a question about the recon data.

Unless 2 planes are out there, it appears that recon is still very far west of the disturbance - at 66.3W as of the latest recon report:

URNT11 KNHC 181708
97779 16584 50199 66300 76200 25012 72741 /5761
RMK AF304 0110A INVEST OB 16

If so, then the fact that recon has sent back so many observation reports means nothing in terms of recon having trouble finding a circulation.

Am I reading this incorrectly?

-Brad


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scottsvb
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Re: (ex)TD-10 and 13N 82W? [Re: Clark]
      #48213 - Thu Aug 18 2005 01:23 PM

The E-Pac system isnt much better organized currently then the 1 in the sw carribean right now. The E-Pac system has also pressures near 1007mb. I do agree that the upper trough is there but is weakning as a ridge is building over the western and sw carribean. The main thing is the NHC feels ( friend source in there) feels it will be onshore tonight so it wont have time to develop more. Also said if it stays offshore it could be a threat in the NW carribean. Guess we will see.

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Clark
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Re: Back To Life? [Re: scottsvb]
      #48214 - Thu Aug 18 2005 01:27 PM

I really don't see the circulation at the surface there, Scott. I'm looking at surface observations -- of which there aren't many down there -- and it is very inconclusive at best. Winds since 1400 UTC have been generally out of the east at the surface across Costa Rica and Panama, with one station reporting southerly winds in Panama last hour...but another right by it still reporting easterly winds. Pressures are generally low down there, but it's largely an upper-level based feature with a very weak signature, at best, at the surface. I'd expect north winds in Costa and west in Panama, which we're just not seeing.

The visible satellite imagery shows a mid-level circulation pretty clearly near 13N/82W, but the low cloud motions don't suggest a low-level circulation yet. A lot of it again is forced by divergent upper level flow from the upper low near 15N/86W, and given the outflow boundaries coming out of the convection on the north side of the feature (and diminishing appearance on WV/IR imagery), I think this one's on the downswing -- for now, at least. You can see these convective features help spin-up mid- and low-level circulations, which might occur here...but I don't think it's there just yet.

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Clark
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Re: Back To Life? [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #48216 - Thu Aug 18 2005 01:29 PM

Hi Brad,

My mistake -- I had seen the earlier reports and thought they were in the area previously and were flying out, but it is in fact the other way around. They are getting near there -- 64W as of the last report -- but I'm kinda surprised they didn't have the plane down in the Virgin Islands in advance to prepare for the flight. In any case, thanks for the heads-up -- I've gone back and edited the old post.

-Clark

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Bloodstar
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Re: (ex)TD-10 and 13N 82W? [Re: scottsvb]
      #48217 - Thu Aug 18 2005 01:31 PM

Eyeballing it, it looks like EX TD-10 center is around 59W and 18N, You can see things a little better with the Ramdis Visible. It's still not a happy storm, and It looks like it's being hit by shear from different directions over different parts of the storm.

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student


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Brad in Miami
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Re: Back To Life? [Re: Clark]
      #48218 - Thu Aug 18 2005 01:33 PM

Yeah, flying from so far away seemed a bit odd, and sending so many reports back when the plane is still so far away seemed unusual to me, but I may just not be remembering previous recon missions in which the latter was done. Is that unusual, or am I just not remembering correctly?

Regardless, as you said, the plane is getting close and we will soon have some helpful data.

(And as always, thanks for responding so quickly, thoroughly, and knowledgeably to questions.)


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scottsvb
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Re: Back To Life? [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #48220 - Thu Aug 18 2005 01:49 PM

I still dont think there is anything with old TD10. I dont expect recon will find a circulation. Now once it gets wnw towards the bahamas it could find a better environment to develop but right now I wouldnt give my 2 cents on it.

There is the midlevel-upper low near 16N and 82W but the LLC would be near 11.8N and 81W.
There is a circulation embetted in the sw carribean system. I guess we just see 2 different things. There is a nw wind in Puerto Belo , Pan and also a N wind offshore near Ise de Maiz, Nicaragua. Vis sat supports it also.
Anyways 1007mb pressure and better defined then the old TD 10 right now, just they expect it to move onshore tonight.
Im out, Ill post again later tonight.
scottsvb


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NONAME
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Re: Back To Life? [Re: scottsvb]
      #48221 - Thu Aug 18 2005 02:02 PM

I've heard about TD 10 and the SW carrib but what about the central carrib it looks perrty good to I just wandering if there is anything on that one.

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Ron Basso
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Re: Back To Life? [Re: scottsvb]
      #48222 - Thu Aug 18 2005 02:09 PM

What to make of old TD10? Well, there is at least a mid-level circulation near 18.5N-59W. It may reform another LLC there. At present, it's difficult to tell if a LLC exists. The environment does appear to be getting better, however, as it looks like an anticyclone is starting to build over the system and shear lessens. If its not classified this pm by NHC, then with the improving environment, perhaps tomorrow. I know we've been saying that the last several days so....

If something does develop, the numerical models seem to be aiming for the Fl Straits or Southern Peninsula in the next 4-5 days. I'm wondering now if the system would be too far south to be affected by the east coast trough or beats the trough to the GOM before coming under its influence. Of course, this presumes that it develops which is a big IF now.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

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RJB


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Old Sailor
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Re: Back To Life? [Re: Ron Basso]
      #48223 - Thu Aug 18 2005 02:15 PM

Latest Scatt just in 18/1745 UTC 18.7N 59.1W TOO WEAK 10
was 1.0/10 this AM be interseting to see what recon finds, also seem to have moved N some.

Dave


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Brad in Miami
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Re: Back To Life? [Re: Old Sailor]
      #48224 - Thu Aug 18 2005 02:19 PM

For anyone interested in the recon reports who isn't checking them, the latest (at 1803 - 203 pm EDT) was from 18.4/61.2, flight level winds 170 degrees at 12 kt, pressure 1015 mb. Still a ways from the estimated center, but getting close to where there should be a west wind if there's a closed low (although if there's a circulation at all, the west wind will only be very close to the LLC because it is small & weak).

Here's the report:

000
URNT11 KNHC 181803
97779 17594 50184 61200 03000 17012 24232 /0015
41510
RMK AF304 0110A INVEST OB 19

Edited by Brad in Miami (Thu Aug 18 2005 02:20 PM)


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Beach
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I Noticed... [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #48225 - Thu Aug 18 2005 02:21 PM

That JB no longer has his Tropical Outlook available:
http://weather.yahoo.com/vidindex/index.html

For the last few days now, does anyone know why?


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