Irene's out of our hair -- it is now an unseasonally strong cyclone near the eastern shore of Greenland -- though some of the model guidance calls for it to feed into a vigorous gale system for the British Isles during the middle of the coming week. There's a developing tropical storm in the East Pacific, Hilary, which I'll get to later, but for now, all is quiet in the Atlantic. Still, there are a couple of things to look at.
Primary attention is focused upon the wave & associated area of low pressure exiting the coast of Africa, currently located around 18-19W. Convection has persisted with this feature for the better part of a day and is becoming better organized through time. At the least, there is some concentrated mid-level turning; the analyzes a surface low of about 1011mb, which the satellite imagery would tend to confirm. This feature is the one that has been advertised by many of the global and mesoscale tropical models for the better part of a week now, and it certainly has "that look" to it (however little that means). Nevertheless, water tempeatures are warm, shear is low (a subtropical ridge extends from near the coast of Africa out to about 45-50W), and the driest air has begun to move out of the area. This system looks a lot like Hilary did yesterday in the East Pacific and if current trends continue, I expect an "invest" to be issued for this wave tonight or tomorrow with formation into a TD shortly thereafter. The upper-low over the central Atlantic, currently near 28N/45W, is moving NW out of the region, helping to provide favorable conditions for this feature for the foreseeable future. A general west to west-northwest path is likely through 3-4 days, with a gradual turn towards the right thereafter. If this develops, unless the subtropical ridge builds in stronger or further west than expected, it should ultimately be a fish spinner at some point down the road. Nevertheless, we'll watch it and update as necessary.
Late during the work week, ex-TD 10 lost it's circulation and it's organization. Now, it's traversing the area just north of the Greater Antilles; some of the wave's signature is going to get distorted by daily convective activity over Hispaniola and, to a lesser extent, Puerto Rico for the next few days. There's still a little bit of curvature associated with the wave north of the islands, but all in all, there's not much left. It's underneath an upper-anticyclone, as the broad trough that had been across the Caribbean has pivoted northward and westwar (now stretching from S. of Bermuda to the Yucutan), though there is a surge of dry air located behind the remnant wave.
Given no organization at this point under favorable conditions, I'm ready to declare it dead...for the next couple of days. Some models are hinting at the potential for some weak development down the line on either side of the Florida coast, but given the broad trough projected to be in the east through five days, including an unseasonably strong cold front, I'd tend to believe such development will either be subdued or of a more hybrid-type nature. Given the warm waters of the Gulf/Gulf Stream, anything is possible, but there's nothing to be worrying about into next week. The remnant wave will likely trigger some enhanced convection in Florida in a few days, depending upon whether it's energy is captured by the trough and heads up & out to sea or it lingers moving west underneath it's base...but certainly nothing out of the ordinary.
The feature in the western Caribbean that spun up a mid-level circulation of Thursday has largely degenerated into an area of unorganized convection. It is very close to land and is projected to move across the Yucutan in the next day or so, plus is attached to the eastern side of an upper-low currently entering the Bay of Campeche. It should continue on a general west-to-west-northwest path towards the central Mexican coast and is not a threat for development at this time. Features along the boundary stretching from the Canadian Maritimes towards the SE coast are of an nature and, given cooler-than-normal waters due to Franklin, Harvey, and Irene and a vast expanse of dry air behind the boundary, are not threats for tropical development at this time.
Tropical Storm Hilary -- another call by some of the global models for the better part of the week -- has formed in the Eastern Pacific, currently located near 14N/102W. This is a very broad, large tropical cyclone and has taken some time to bring everything together. Nevertheless, it has intensified at a strong clip for the past day or so and should continue to do so now that the system has become well-organized. It should become a hurricane sometime later today, with intensification likely through the next three days. The forecast does not call for the storm to become a major hurricane at this point, but given largely unchurned waters and favorable upper-level conditions, I feel safe in forecasting this one to become that basin's first major hurricane of the season. It should continue towards the west-northwest for the next few days, turning slightly towards the northwest around day 4 before ultimately turning back to the west or west-northwest late in the period as it meets cooler waters. This should be one to watch for all of those who love watching tropical cyclones intensify and not affect any land interests.
More into the week...
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