MikeC
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5:30pm Update
Recon reports indicate that T.S. Jose has formed from TD 11 in the Gulf of Mexico, with sustained winds of 50mph and sea level pressure of 1002mb. Landfall is expected sometime early tomorrow as a moderate tropical storm.
Noon Update
Tropical Depression 11 has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, it is expected to move westward into Mexico as a tropical storm.
Original Update
There is currently nothing being tracked as a named storm or depression, but several active waves being watched right now.
The one closest to being classified is perhaps the wave in the Bay of Campeche, this was hovering over the Yucatan for the last few days and now has emerged into the Bay of Campeche looking rather good for development.
This would be short lived however, as it would likely move on into Mexico before becoming too much.
Moving east is the wave over Cuba, basically still the remnants of Tropical Depression 10, no development is expected but it may be able to slide into the Gulf, and if so will need to be watched. It could create some rain for parts of Southern Florida as well.
Out in the central Atlantic an African wave has persisted a bit and may become a depression in a few days if it continues to hold together. If it does, the most likely scenario is otu to sea for it, but it's worth watching.
Beyond that another healthy wave off Africa is there, and we can watch to see if that persists over the next few days as well.
Nothing overly concerning right now, and for late August, this is great news.
Event Related Links
General Links
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
T.S. Jose
Animated model plots of T.S. Jose
Mexican Radar
Invest 97L
NRL-Monterey Satellite Data on 97L
METEOSAT-8 imagery over Europe & Africa from the Univ. of Wisconsin
Animated model plots of 97L
ExTD10
Animated model plots of Former TD#10
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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NRL now officially has the wave near the Bay of Campeche as 98L.
The sattelite IR presentation of the system also looks impressive for a wave, and with the an air force reserve reconisance aircraft expected to investigate it today, clearly is concerned about its development.
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In reference to the wave south of Florida, while I realize that the tends to over-strengthen systems in the gulf, it still makes you worry about what that wave is going to do!
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation
In comparison the isn't really picking up on that wave and the is sending it into Florida's east coast before it has a chance to strengthen. I think its track will have great influence on what happens to it.
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The first run on 97L is out...and it dissipates the wave in about 24 hours. I find that highly suspect since almost every other model strengthens the wave, albiet slowly. is still showing a strong system taking a northerly curvature while is keeping it weaker and more westerly.
--RC
Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Aug 22 2005 07:19 AM)
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Steveunplugged
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See that Random? And you said you didn't see anything down there on Saturday  . I didn't either except to say it was something I was watching. When they have the look or the color [tm - Bobbi], you gotta consider them in this type of season where the bulk of the SSTA's in the Atlantic Basin are running high. As for the Canadian, it was doing basically the same thing yesterday. The 00Z European doesn't make as big of a deal with it but does form something off the W Coast of FL and moves it into SC LA. Almost all of the globals that show anything show genesis and intensification near or over Florida. If it's the west coast or SW coast, the FL posters are on the wet side and should see some rainfall at a minimum. Looks like we're about to get back into tracking mode.
Tough call as to 98L on whether or not it can make it beyond a STDS (not that kind of STDS) to a depression or minimal tropical storm. What we've seen with most of the 3 storms that impacted the E coast of Mexico this year has been a strengthening/tightening mode at landfall. I woudln't be surprised if this turns out to be Jose any more than I'd be surprised if it stayed a blob of thurderstorms. As I said the other day, it's something to watch.
Should be an interesting week.
Steve
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Random Chaos
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Steve: On satuday I didn't see anything 
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As per the 8 am EST TWD update:
Both the Bay of Campeche and the south-of-Florida waves have no associated deep convection. However, the south-of-Florida wave has "LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING" observed.
The central-Atlantic wave is no longer mentioned on the TWD.
The east-Atlantic wave: "THE CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS NOT AS INTENSE AS EARLIER" but they are still predicting cyclonic development with it. Could be it's at a diurnal weak point?
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J.C.
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Random, can you give us some sort of present location of where the low level turning is located in the area south of FL? And if you know, give some kind of direction and speed because I don't see anything other than a cloud mass with no apparent organizatiuon to it as of 8:15am. Thanks, J.C.
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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
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Of course JB was very "concerned" for the next week or so .. should have jose by today .. that area in the BOC is ramping up quick .. =)
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Ed in Va
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Anything going on with this action off the Carolina cost...seems like there was some discussion about it yesterday:
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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HanKFranK
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the rundown this morning:
new 98L will get reconned this afternoon and will probably be classified. the core of the feature has moved offshore now; it should have enough time to get organized. joe b says landfall late tomorrow near tuxpan as a tropical storm.. see no problem with that.
97L is over marginal SSTs and is entraining some dry air. this should act to keep it broad and fairly weak through the next 36-48hrs. should only be minimal development in that time. after that it should slowly deepen. a recurvature corridor will be open for it if it's strong enough late in the week. if not, it'll have a shear zone/upper trough to break through like irene did a couple weeks ago.
xtd 10 is what concerns me the most this morning. the outflow pattern is shown to be very favorable around it by mid week, with the rising heights in the northeast and shortwave bypassing it to the north, low pressure is likely to develop in this area. models tracking it either just east of florida, over florida, or into the eastern gulf. i was thinking about what jb would have to say over the weekend.. this morning his ideas all panned out like i'd expected. development out of this system will be trouble, and the pattern is evolving so as to facilitate that.
the wave behind 97L is shown by most globals to keep a low trajectory.. nao is positive now and should favor zonal ridging. in the two week period that wave will likely be responsible for what we're talking about then.
HF 1413z22august
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Beaumont, TX
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If xTD10 tracked into the Gulf and developed where do you see it heading and possibly when? And why does this one concern you?
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emackl
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H.F., If this thing does track to Fl do you have any idea as to when and what we may be talking about? Do you think it will be just a rain maker or is it likely to be something worse?
Thanks,
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Ed in Va
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HF, The maps show all the models going south of FL...are you looking somewhere else?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Frank P
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CMC shows a bend to the north
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation
european also shows a bend to the north
http://snark.themedwiz.com/public/ecmwf-0z0822-7day.jpg
Edited by Frank P (Mon Aug 22 2005 10:46 AM)
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naples
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Loc: Naples, FL
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Looks like has the storm south of us developing pretty rapidly. How powerful do you think this thing will get, if at all.
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ralphfl
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that is 2 models out of how many? has done nothing to impress me so far this year.
Personally i dont think models get a good grip on anything till they become something and as of right now its a open wave.
out of the plots.. it's 3 out of 4 have a closed low. the other one sees 'something' open. euro and both show something developing. hasn't been initialized on it. all of them have something moving over or just east of florida this week. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Aug 22 2005 10:58 AM)
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HanKFranK
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watching low cloud motions near the se bahamas... there's a low forming down there.
first ssd out on 98L.. it's at 1.5. the system has a , so it should strengthen up to landfall.
97L probably won't do a whole lot until it gets near 40-45w.
HF 1453z22august
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Wxwatcher2
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Looks like the Westerly flow is still with us.
XTD-10 could drop some rain on S.FLorida and then get into the Gulf and head WNW...
Something to watch for the next few days. It's very slow moving.
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Frank P
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HF definitely a twist to the system ... but I can't discern a LLC, a mid level rotation but nothing at the surface that I can pinpoint, unless its really broad in scope, which is also possible as its in the developing stage... shear still attacking it from the UUL above it however on the northern quad and ahead of it... however, I do like the rotation it is now presenting... which is a good start...
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Rabbit
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935 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2005
...ELEVENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON IS FORMING OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE...
SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS FORMING WITHIN THE DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A
SPECIAL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR.
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
looks like we may break the record after all for the earliest tenth storm of the season--by one day!
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LoisCane
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Decided to check in around here to see what people were saying on the African Wave (that doesn't look all that good anymore) and the remnants of TD10.
Beginning to wonder should it develop if the will go with 10 or 11 as they have stopped using the TD10 designation in favor of "showers"
One model has it developing just past FL and turning it into a hurricane. One sees the front and I suppose is more interested in the front and staring at the front...doesn't do much with the wave. Others have it meandering west.. creating weather but not much else.
Have to stay with the thought that if something persists as an entity this long it bears watching.. begs you to watch so we may as well watch. Warm water yes (accounts for color) but unfavorable winds... makes it hard to define a center. Might hug the Old Bahama Passage all the way into the Straits if it really is trying to develop somewhere down the road. Either way.. it's more intriquing this morning than anything else.
Top half of the African Wave is dry.. missing in action. There's dust in that wave and mostly along the top. Until the Dust Monster is dealt with... waves won't develop until they are much further west.
Lastly...Looking at the WV imagery from high up in the sky..that is one of the most bizzare "highs" I have ever seen and not going to be that easy to get a storm across the Atlantic until that changes.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/displ...RENT=LATEST.jpg
Thanks... random indeed.. didn't plan to check in here but randomly I suddenly did.
Wierd set up going on right now for all the predictions of a busy second half of the season to verify. Suppose size doesn't matter and if you have a bunch of little storms forming fast in BOC or close in to Florida and going out to sea..the numbers are still there.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Clark
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Lo and behold, it reformed out over water. That's two of three I've been fooled on this year...not so fun when you're trying to predict these for a living! Thankfully it'll be a short-lived storm, but it's yet another to add to the annals of an active 2005. If Jose forms today, we'll tie 1995 (which had 3 storms form on August 22nd) for the record pace. Figure that's a good bet.
97L doesn't look as impressive convective-wise this morning, but is still well-organized overall. Expect the convection to make a comeback tonight and development to proceed from there. Wave behind it is getting some looks from the models now as well -- it's as well-organized as 97L was leaving the coast. Here comes the activity, more likely than not -- and like it or not.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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