MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Wow, the is banking on a hard left turn in fairly short order. Which is definitely possible judging by the elongation and the tendencies on Radar. I'll be watching for a more defined movement to the west for sure.
They did move the long end of the forecast track quite a bit to the right up into the Panhandle, with trends like they are, it might be further later as well. is going to be one of those that keep you guessing. I'm going to be monitoring the 's track vs real track strongly over the next several hours into tomorrow.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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what is with no 12Z run i like that model and its not around.
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Loc: Winter Park, FL
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5pm is out, and track/intensity still looking about the same. was looking a bit more organized to me on the vis sat this afternoon, but I didn't see any signs of rapid intensification. On the WV loop you can see her starting to get pulled to the west a bit more than she has been.
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Check the Surf
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Yeah Mike, better have some good driving skills because it's a very hard left very soon in the Atlantic and then it's a hard right in the Gulf.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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susieq
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Panhandle
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What trends will keep it to the east of Pensacola? Is there a front or steering current that will deflect it from us?
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Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Well finally found the 12Z and it is still more west then the so we will have to see.
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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Quote:
O.K. What's this model?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/KATRINA.track.png
Is it any good? Puts her a little closer to me then ya'll down south...LOL! I don't mind the rain but I worry about her staying out to sea too long.
That's the , which has done a pretty abysmal job of forecasting this year...
The move to the right out early next week on the latest package is something on the order of 250 miles!
That's a HUGE move for a single update package, and illustrates that the models - and the - really don't have a solid handle on this thing yet. Looking at the latest model runs it appears the is splitting the difference between the UKMET and ... there is a huge divergence between them. appears to be to the right too, but it hasn't verified this year on anything...... of course you know what they say about past performance and future results!
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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i think the and the gdfl is what the is using to keep it out over the gulf awhile.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2...;hour=Animation
Shows even more of a SW turn when over Florida so i guess the went in the middle of them all.Still i think its a larger cone then some other storms.
Edited by ralphfl (Wed Aug 24 2005 08:57 PM)
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ROB H
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Clearwater, FL.
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The 5PM Advisory says the center wil be in the Florida straits Thursday night.
How can that be?
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Rob:
I think the will correct that; obviously the meant the Gulf Stream or the strait between the Bahamas and Florida. (Unless "Florida Straits" has a secondary meaning and means that area in addition to the water between the Keys & Cuba, which I doubt - never heard it.)
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Fletch
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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5 PM Disc
It should be pointed out that with SSTs near 31c and a low shear environment...conditions are favorable for possible rapid intensification to occur between now and landfall. This is suggested by the SHIPS model experimental rapid intensification output...which indicates a 57 percent probability of that occurring. The only inhibiting factor is the dry air that surrounds and has been working its way into the inner-core region and eroding the deep convection. If the dry air mixes out within the next 12 hours...then intensities would likely be higher than the official forecast is indicating.
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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sure looks like its starting to get that westerly component... also convection starting to build up over the general area of the center.... does have that elongated east to west structure that also sometimes indicates a possible change of direction...
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
zoom in and you decide
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Possible landfall has moved a bit farther north from 11 a.m. at Ft. Lauderdale(central Broward) to the Palm Beach/Broward line at 5 p.m..
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
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Would it be possible for anyone to make a map with the tracks of , Jeanne and the projected path of ? I am just north of Orlando and not sure what to expect. We lost our east facing roof last year, just wondering if I can compare what we may get to last year......
Thanks!
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Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Hey folks,
just got in and have had a chance to go over the products, as well as some of the radar and satellite imagery. I think we will see make the turn to the left pretty smartly within the next 12 hours. This may be accomapnied by some meandering or erratic movement, but should result in a generally westward motion by the middle part of tomorrow. Satellite imagery is showing some hints of this already beginning, as has some of the recon fixes - although they could have been transient centres. Additionally, is still in the process of organising, whcih she has done quite impressively today, and this will also have some effect on short term motion. As far as intenisty goes, it is a tough call. I like the 's discussion, highlighting the possibility for rapid intensification. I dont think we will see this occur in the short term - i.e tonight, as there seems to be too much reorganising going on at the moment. However, once the westward turn has occurred, i think we could see some pretty rapid intensification, and if this occurs, i wouldnt totally rule out landfall as a Cat2. After florida there is so much divergence and spread in the forecast models that at this stage i really wouldnt want to put a pin in it! However, will certainly be one for you folks over there in Florida to be watching very closely. Official watches / warnings will also likely go out for the west coast of Florida within the next 12 hours.
97L is also still holding its own, and has become rather more organised today. indicates it could become TD13 on Thursday too.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Latest Bahamas radar attached, site running very slow as usual. Looks like any more eastward shift to the track once gets into Gulf will increase the tornado threat to the peninsula.
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
Edited by Jamiewx (Wed Aug 24 2005 09:31 PM)
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Loc:
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Quote:
Would it be possible for anyone to make a map with the tracks of , Jeanne and the projected path of ? I am just north of Orlando and not sure what to expect. We lost our east facing roof last year, just wondering if I can compare what we may get to last year......
Thanks!
Katrina is just a tropical storm not even a hurricane.
so it's difficult to compare with the storms from last year.
Right now, it looks as if the Orlando area will experience a lot of rain and possibly some tropical storm force winds. Unless the track moves further North, your roof should be ok
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Clark
Meteorologist
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I have no updates to make to my thinking from last night on -- it is behaving exactly as I predicted thus far and still should make landfall about the time projected by myself and the last night, i.e. sometime around midnight tomorrow night.
For the full update, please refer back to the main page or to http://flhurricane.com/blog.php?met=Clark.
Similarly, I have no change to make to my projected track area, though I would tend to favor the eastern edge of that zone; this is in fact slightly west of the current track, though I see no reason to go against their thinking at this time. Intensity might be a tick higher, though. Again, for the full details, see the entry referenced above.
If anything changes, I will post a full update. Otherwise, a minor update can be expected tomorrow with a full track projection for a potential second landfall slated for Thursday night -- or about the time of the first landfall.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Will someone explain what this means:
THE LAST
RECON POSITION CAN BE SEEN AS A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL VORTEX MOVING OUT
FROM UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THAT VORTEX MAY END UP BEING A TRANSIENT FEATURE. IF
IT TURNS OUT THAT THE CENTER DOES END UP FARTHER NORTH...THEN THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD ON THE
NEXT ADVISORY.
What does Transient feature mean? All the talk about possible rapid intensifacation and maybe shifting slightly north makes me nervous. Can someone put it in plain english for me? Thanks
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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That's an interesting tidbit that I'm a little confused on, At this point I thought the feature would have been a dry slot wrapping into the convection, but if it is an effort to form an eye (of sorts), then the system is more organized than I would have expected. I think it also gives a heads up that the system could intensify fairly rapidly at any point (particularly during the evening hours).
The turn hasn't happened yet, but as everyone has pointed out, who knows when it will happen.
Even with only 40Kt winds, I'm no longer considering this a weak Tropical Storm. So, I think upper level winds will now play a larger role in steering the storm. hmmmm what are the upper level steering currents at this point?
and is going to start making it's own environment? (Which I think it already is starting to do....)
-mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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