HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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the center jumped north today as it was rounding/interacting with that upper low.. which is now pulling away wsw. is now in the wake of a withdrawing upper low--which is greatly enhancing the outflow. 5pm disco already mentioned the kind of inner core changes that can take place if a solid ring of deep convection can form. waters between florida and the bahamas are about as juiced as anywhere in the basin in terms of heat content... the cat 1 call i made is middle ground between the circulation not consolidating and dry air not mixing out, and what would happen if rapid deepening takes place.
nhc has been adjusting the post-peninsula crossing track to the right today. my earlier call to ms/al is now way left of the official... i'll reset it when is done crossing florida, but i missed the boat with the synoptic pattern. the model consensus has shifted right, but there are still some taking it further out into the gulf. the way things are looking will be all florida, though. clark's panhandle call last night was right on, if this stuff verifies. i hear the fla west coasters discussing how some are taking it off and then up the coast or back in. that looks overdone to me, as the globals that favor it have one of those tarbaby disturbances coming in from the east... those don't look legit just yet.
97L is still being rated as just that. it's definitely got a closed low and a disjointed area of deep convection... which has continued for a couple of days now. it's what i'll call a sheared tropical cyclone. expect it to get the profile necessary for the to rate it, though i've seen features like this before persist for days and all the does is mention that it may become a depression in the outlook.
globals still seeing the feature tailing 97L... some developing it as it gets further west. it's a watcher for around the weekend.
HF 2136z24august
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DWard
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Loc: Molino, FL (N of Pensacola)
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As long as it stays as far away from Pensacola. We are still picking up pieces from our 40x60 barn that the rafters blew down the other day during these awful thunderstroms we have been having.
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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Posts: 161
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on what the Miami radar, long range loop is telling me. It is telling me the thing is heading west.......can someone clarify that? What am I seeing?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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HF, you hit a nerve there. As I stated earlier concerning her ragged appearance, she is now showing some rapid blow up of convection near the "center" and in the larger bands around the periphery. This seems to be the beginnings of an intensification phase as those waters are quite warm, warmer than I've seen them in years. I think she's got her shot of geritol and is sparking now. Cheers!
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Would it be possible for anyone to make a map with the tracks of , Jeanne and the projected path of ? I am just north of Orlando and not sure what to expect. We lost our east facing roof last year, just wondering if I can compare what we may get to last year......
Thanks!
Here you go.
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
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Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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It is just due east of miami florida so if it is going to make that west turn it better do it fast or else am feeling a more northern path of this system
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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Quote:
It is just due east of miami florida so if it is going to make that west turn it better do it fast or else am feeling a more northern path of this system
yes it almost due east at us... so my question is... are they going to issue hurricane warnings for miami giving that its due east and still going north? Any insight here will be very helpful to me guys. I know you can't stop mother nature but this one has really bad timing for me right now
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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Jekyhe904
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 22
Loc: Jacksonville, Florida
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Long range radar is no good for a developing tropical system in finding a center and deciding movement especially when it is daylight and Vis is available
umm... actually radar is great for it, because you can see the inner core.. which is concealed by a higher cloud shield in many cases. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Aug 24 2005 10:00 PM)
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
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Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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The Mets here in Orlando are "watching for a notherly turn". Is this hype or caution?
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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here is the latest vortex message. This center fix is 5 min north and 12 min west of the last one, which indicates a more WNW movement if this is indeed the same feature that they fixed on last time
000
URNT12 KNHC 242205
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/21:49:10Z
B. 25 deg 54 min N
077 deg 17 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 55 kt
E. 135 deg 009 nm
F. 200 deg 048 kt
G. 137 deg 008 nm
H. EXTRAP 1001 mb
I. 23 C/ 210 m
J. 24 C/ 244 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0312A OB 14
MAX FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 21:46:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
BANDING FROM SE TO W
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
The Mets here in Orlando are "watching for a notherly turn". Is this hype or caution?
Probably Caution, if it does err to the east we'll be in the NE quadrant of the storm and especially if it slows down over the peninsula. We are in the cone of error, that is not hype.
I tend to expect the track, maybe just a little further north and maybe not so far out into the Gulf.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Interesting to see 55 kt estimated surface winds on that vortex message, though that seems overdone compared to the flight-level winds observed so far and the central pressure.
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DennisHerman
Registered User
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Posts: 5
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I ask because it will seriously effect my prep tonight. I am the "IT guy" in Miami but live in Broward. Thanks!
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Quote:
Interesting to see 55 kt estimated surface winds on that vortex message, though that seems overdone compared to the flight-level winds observed so far and the central pressure.
Its obviously started to strengthen. If this holds true, then I think they will bring it up to 50 knots at 8 pm because of the obvious discrepencies with the flight level and the estimated surface winds.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
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Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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The general motion has been NW dont see a W/NW track yet
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml
Anyone notice the "hook" on the area around the center? It appears it is trying to tighten or wrap around...any thoughts? Definitely looking more westerly motion now....8pm Advisory or Recon will clear this up...
My problem with these weak storms is when to make the call to put up shutters. It appears this will be one those last minute prep. events. hmm. I think the last Broward County landfall was during the 1950s or 1940s maybe 1947 Cat. 4?
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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 71
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Definitely see that hook in the most recent radar images. It almost looks like a w-sw hook.
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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That experimental Radar is much better than the older version...you can see farther..IMO.
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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
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sometimes take a step back and look at the big picture, close up images can be deceiving.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE BECAME TROPICAL STORM
AT 24/1200 UTC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AT
24/1800 UTC WAS NEAR 25.2N 77.0W OR ABOUT 30 MILES/50 KM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...AND ABOUT
200 MILES/320 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF FLORIDA. IT WAS MOVING NORTHEAST 17 KT . THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE LATEST .....
I guess Not everything your read is right also.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Same problem here Justin. A weak storm for now, but what about tomorrow? Shutters are still on hold and it is almost dark. So, up early to check out the situation in the morning. No one seems to have done any preps. and the stores/gas stations aren't even busy. I hope it doesn't intensify quickly, because if it does, many people will be caught off guard.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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