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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 21 (Milton) , Major: 21 (Milton) Florida - Any: 21 (Milton) Major: 21 (Milton)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


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Re: West Coast prep? [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #49141 - Wed Aug 24 2005 04:20 PM

Apparently recon did find an eye forming. From the NHC regarding entry L in the recon reports:

"If the eye is not at least 50% surrounded by a wall cloud, this item and Item M will be reported as 'NA' (Not Applicable)."


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


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elongation westerly [Re: naples]
      #49142 - Wed Aug 24 2005 04:21 PM

looking at the system as a whole, you can expect a more westerly component, if the shape of the entire system is a clue to it's direction, which is usually the case, isn't it?

look for a sharper turn west that one might have realized...

the further south...the bigger the danger to all residents that might be affected in the GOM


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Steve H1
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Re: West Coast prep? [Re: naples]
      #49143 - Wed Aug 24 2005 04:23 PM

I don't get it!!! The cloud tops have warmed considerably during the past 6 hours. How is the pressure falling? Those -70/-80 tops are gone. Looks like possibly multiple centers. She is not that impressive to me right now, and she APPEARS to be booking to the NW. Maybe just a big gullywasher for the SE Florida coast?? This will get sorted out I hope at 5pm. Unless this begins to re-fire she ain't gonna make a strong TS before landfall. Praise God!!

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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: West Coast prep? [Re: naples]
      #49144 - Wed Aug 24 2005 04:24 PM

12Z GFDL Katrina runs are on the FSU site. Don't buy into it but it shows the system slowing down, intensifying, then crossing the southern tip of Florida into the Gulf. Not a pretty scenario. Believe we'll have a much better handle on the system once the models have digested the data sets from the Hurricane Hunter Recon and NOAA Gulfstream flights.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs

Edited by CoalCracker (Wed Aug 24 2005 04:28 PM)


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Thunderbird12
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intensity forecast [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #49145 - Wed Aug 24 2005 04:25 PM

In addition to the track forecast, it'll be interesting to see the intensity forecast on the next update. The 12Z GFDL really explodes the system starting tomorrow, but its track is slower and further south than most of the models I have seen (with the exception of the MM5) and it actually passes Katrina over the Keys, so the center never really has to deal with land in that model solution until it hits the FL Gulf Coast at 120 hours. The SHIPS is more conservative but still brings it up to hurricane strength at 36 hours before the forecast landfall.

While the center of the system is now well-embedded in the overall convection, there appears to be some dry air that it needs to work out of its system before having an opportunity to rapidly intensify.


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Susan in Jupiter, FL
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Re: West Coast prep? [Re: MikeC]
      #49146 - Wed Aug 24 2005 04:25 PM

Someone earlier had mentioned their prediction of it landing 20-50 miles more north than NHC prediction. Anybody have any more ideas on that?

--------------------
Susan in Jupiter, FL Survived:
Andrew, Irene, Charley, Francis,
Ivan, Jeanne, Katrina, Wilma


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Fletch
Weather Guru


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Re: West Coast prep? [Re: CoalCracker]
      #49147 - Wed Aug 24 2005 04:25 PM

For those in S Florida

Broward County has closed public schools for Thursday and Friday

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


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Re: West Coast prep? [Re: MikeC]
      #49148 - Wed Aug 24 2005 04:27 PM

If the new position is at 25.8/77.1, the storm would have to make a hard left turn due west right now to come ashore at 26.1/80.1 where they had it going in at as of 11 a.m.

Needs .3 N but 3.0 W to make the landfall at 26.1/80.1(based on 11 a.m.).

I guess the track will be moving north for sure.


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ralphfl
Weather Master


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Re: West Coast prep? [Re: Fletch]
      #49149 - Wed Aug 24 2005 04:28 PM

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200512.marine.html


5PM is coming out


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ralphfl
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Re: West Coast prep? [Re: ralphfl]
      #49150 - Wed Aug 24 2005 04:30 PM

Tropical storm center located near 25.6n 77.2w at 24/2100z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 325 degrees at 8 kt


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susieq
Weather Watcher


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Re: West Coast prep? [Re: ralphfl]
      #49151 - Wed Aug 24 2005 04:31 PM

Looks like Appalachicola has the bullseye once it enters the gulf.

--------------------
Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan


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ralphfl
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Re: West Coast prep? [Re: ralphfl]
      #49152 - Wed Aug 24 2005 04:33 PM

NW at 9 means it is going faster and will move up the time it hits land.

Also they have it faster out in the gulf not much track change;


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trinibaje
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Re: West Coast prep? [Re: susieq]
      #49153 - Wed Aug 24 2005 04:33 PM

Quote:

Looks like Appalachicola has the bullseye once it enters the gulf.




what are the chances hurricane warnings going up for miami dade county tonight or tomorrow before 8?

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Re: West Coast prep? [Re: ralphfl]
      #49154 - Wed Aug 24 2005 04:34 PM

While the doomsday scenario of the 12Z GFDL is unlikely, it does seem to indicate that conditions will be favorable for significant strengthening if the system can spend a sufficient amount of time over water. The scenario where the system gets hung up near or over the peninsula would be bad news as far as heavy rain is concerned, but would potentially save someone from having to deal with a landfalling major hurricane at some point.

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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


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Re: West Coast prep? [Re: Steve H1]
      #49155 - Wed Aug 24 2005 04:35 PM

Agree with you there Steve last few frames , lost the high top clouds, be interesting to see what NHC does with 5:00 PM track.

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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Re: West Coast prep? [Re: susieq]
      #49156 - Wed Aug 24 2005 04:35 PM

i am now under a TS watch

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: West Coast prep? [Re: ralphfl]
      #49157 - Wed Aug 24 2005 04:36 PM

TROPICAL STORM Katrina ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005
... KATRINA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR FLORIDA...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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ralphfl
Weather Master


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Re: West Coast prep? [Re: Old Sailor]
      #49158 - Wed Aug 24 2005 04:36 PM

old sailor its been out 10 misn now Tropical storm center located near 25.6n 77.2w at 24/2100z
position accurate within 30 nm

little change in track across the state.


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


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Here is your answer [Re: trinibaje]
      #49159 - Wed Aug 24 2005 04:40 PM

A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for portions of the Hurricane Watch area later this evening.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


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Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: Here is your answer [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #49160 - Wed Aug 24 2005 04:41 PM

Thank you this is really helpful information, because my building closes down during a warning and I am the middle of a huge project!

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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