TAZMAN
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 48
Loc: Clermont, Fl
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Quote:
A few pages back someone was asking about the right front quadrant...the following is from the Hurricane Local Statement for Southwest Florida.
...TORNADO IMPACTS... LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... INCREASING THE THREAT FOR QUICKLY DEVELOPING TORNADOES.
I asked........ but it was in reference to the motion of the storm or N - E - S - W as being the "right front quadrant:
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Channel 9 out of Orlando just announced that the winds have been bumped up to 65mph...this update came from .
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Well radar is also showing a potential dry slow working into the center... hopefully that will keep the storm down in strength.
It's wobbling so expect to see some varation on the 270 degree track, but it'll probably even out to about 270. (though I think it may peek a little south of due west when it's all said and done)
at what point would the interaction with florida inhibit growth? or is the water too warm and shear to low to have land interaction do much more than slow it down (until the center crosses over....
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I stand by my statement that an eye is developing; but not quite there. A true eye is a center of circulation clear of precipitation and most clouds. IR would show an eye covered by high clouds. Radar presentation is still extremely ragged and filling in from time to time.
She will be hurricane within the next few hours, though.
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Jim
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>It appears that the southwest turn predicted by the is not verifying....
I disagree and think it's pretty evident on radar that the system is at least moving WSW over the sum length of the MIA radar loop (usually +/- 50 minutes or so). Not that this implies anything, but it certainly appears to be taking a little dive to me.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Here is a link to a close up of .
http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/global/Region/g4/2xpxIRSatellite.html
Looks like the and the outflow to the North and to the Southwest is getting it's act togehter rather rapidily. I would assume that by the 2PM update we will have Hurricane .
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ROB H
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Clearwater, FL.
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ukmet, , , all all have seem to be in agreement now on turning
north in the gulf and running parallel to the west coast and exiting in the lower big
bend area. is similar to at landflall but track is to the right. has not
been updated. I think 5:00 advisory will have track adjusted to the right.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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That's probably pretty good news Rob H especially since majors don't usualy go in between Cedar Key and St. George (can't think of any historical storms that have, though there probably are one or two over the last 150 years). Obviously there are tidal issues up that way that will need to be contended with, but it's not the same type of situation as if a major was bearing down on Destin, Ft. Walton, Pensacola or Panama City.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Since no one has mentioned him so far, I will. JB has stated that there where be a ridge building out west and that will force up and along the East Coast by New Jersey by next week, If you look at the plot to 144hrs, then JB would be correct in his prediction. He believes the trough/front will merge with and really intensify off the East Coast by next week. We shall see.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Loc:
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I don't think you'll see any major shift of the track at 5pm. Some members are still to the left of the landfall position, including the , with the and CONU very close to the official track. As with the past three advisories, I imagine the track forecast will largely be an extension of the previous one. Recall that the doesn't use the very much and the hardly at all in making track forecasts.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
ukmet, , , all all have seem to be in agreement now on turning
north in the gulf and running parallel to the west coast and exiting in the lower big
bend area. is similar to at landflall but track is to the right. has not
been updated. I think 5:00 advisory will have track adjusted to the right.
Not what I'm seeing about which tracks have update. Take a look: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif
What's your source?
I'm seeing has also updated, and is still showing a jog around FL. Really wierd that one of the most reliable models continues to be an outlier, and also seems to be one of the most consistant about where is going.
BTW, TCGenisis at and PSU haven't brought all their models to the latest it seems - some are up to 12 hours old.
--RC
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Looks to be moving due west to me
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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1PM REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AND COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The population is much less, but the surge potential is much, much higher. Cedar Key was devestated by an cyclone in the mid-80s, while the whole coastline was ravaged by this year despite the storm making landfall 150-200 miles further west. It likely won't be a major -- probably high end 1 -- but that's still going to do a lot of damage, particularly given that this is a heavily wooded area without a very strong infrastructure (the power grid in Tallahassee, for instance, is unreliable during strong weather at best). Less population & monetary damage, but the overall impact to the coastline will be far greater, based off of experience.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Looks to be moving due west to me
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml
If you watch the center of rotation, it looks to me like it is heading just south of due west. Hard to tell.
An hour ago it still looked due west to me.
(sorry about the short post mods  )
-- thanks for thinking of us! 
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Thu Aug 25 2005 05:14 PM)
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MARK32366
Registered User
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Posts: 1
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The dry air doesen't seem to be bothering it much. With winds up to 65 I still believe we will have a 75 mph hurricane this evening. After landfall I'm just not sure how slow this system will be moveing durring the night but if landfall is around 10pm tonight then I se Katerina reaching th gulf Friday afternoon. The areas along the west coast need to watch what happens. I live in Fort Myers and forecasts still predict 5-10 inches of rain but if this storm makes it into the gulf as I think it will the heavy rain should be over here by noon saturday.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Schools finally closing in Palm Beach County with the storm only 40 miles away(Boca Raton). CRAZY! Winds and rains definitely picking up. Pressure down to 29.72" here with almost an inch of rain and winds to 20 m.p.h. At Delray Beach a report of a possible missing surfer. Storm looks due west towards the Broward/Palm Beach line putting me in the front right quadrant.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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That 'SW' movement may be just one of a series of jogs. I do not see anything that would contradict forcasted path heading West. I am surprised that the UKMET model is biased to the right on both coasts; it's showing a landfall in PB County and has it looping to central Fl from the GOM.
I am also wondering why the has not discontinued the hurricane warning north of St.Lucie inlet,
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Quote:
The population is much less, but the surge potential is much, much higher. Cedar Key was devestated by an cyclone in the mid-80s, while the whole coastline was ravaged by this year despite the storm making landfall 150-200 miles further west. It likely won't be a major -- probably high end 1 -- but that's still going to do a lot of damage, particularly given that this is a heavily wooded area without a very strong infrastructure (the power grid in Tallahassee, for instance, is unreliable during strong weather at best). Less population & monetary damage, but the overall impact to the coastline will be far greater, based off of experience.
Clark any inkling on what we might be in store for here in Tally??
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I have just finished looking at about 8 different loops. Although it appeared to be going almost due west for a while, I am seeing jogs to the sw just like you are, Steve. It's almost "stair-stepping" at this point. This morning it looked like it was going to make landfall near WPB (at least to my eyes), now it is further south near Ft. Lauderdale.
Also....NWS in Tampa is very concerned about . The latest disco urged people in West Central and South central Florida to not let their guard down.
I have a question: if this is only 45 miles due east from Ft. Lauderdale traveling at 6mph heading due west, why (according to ) would it be making landfall around midnite or 1:00am? If it's 1:00pm now, wouldn't they be expecting landfall around 7-8pm tonight?
I'll admit...I was never really good at math...so please feel free to correct me if I am wrong!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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