Colleen A.
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Well, Bob...you stay safe and tuned in to the TV. At this point, nothing she does would surprise me. The weird thing is that NWS Tampa says the further south it makes landfall, the worse off Tampa will have it, too. So.
JB saying it's probably a hurricane already and turning to the SW, the longer it stays over water the worse for Miami and since it would be over warmer waters, things could get ugly for the Gulf coast.
I have to say I agree...and you could almost see an eye forming. Or it could just be my eyes doing loop de loops.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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meto
Weather Guru
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look at that feeder band reaching all the way thru gulf. up to panhandle. infared satt. photos showing a small tight eye.
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Rick on boat in Mobile
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you wonder why an "official' has to confirm what we are all seeing.
this could easily pass south of Miami.........it will be interesting to see what the new models and tracks will show.....the current one on the site is a cartoon....
updates should show a larger uncertainty...because who the heck knows?????
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Ronn
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Katrina has definitely slowed down and has remained nearly stationary over the past 30-45 minutes. It looks like the system is finally working out the dry air, because the northern quadrant is beginning to fill in, as seen on radar. This will definitely be a hurricane by landfall, but not a major--at least at the first landfall.
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twizted sizter
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That's what I was getting at in my previous post Rick...always uncertainy with these things but is too close now & the coast is already getting weather from her.
While I definitly don't want my beloved state to take it on the chin anywhere a major shift south right now would not be good in my eyes.
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disneyfanfl
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Loc: Jacksonville, FL
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Feel free to move this post if it's out of place.
Currently our local mets are forecasting nor'easter-like conditions (20mph winds, periods of heavy rain) for Sunday and Monday for Jacksonville, but this is based on the current track showing hit #2 south of Tallahassee. If some of the models prove to be correct that it hits east of that (towards the big bend) and crosses over Jacksonville, just how much worse would it be for us? Would be then be expecting 40mph or more winds? Just curious since it's a possibility at this time.
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Colleen A.
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I'll make this short and simple: I think we will have Hurricane at 11am. I am seriously thinking that the further south this goes, the worse it will get and it will catch a lot of people off guard.
And yes...the further south it goes, the worse off you in So. Florida will have it. Then, where does it go? Hm.
FYI: FNC just had their met on and he said that if she stays offshore longer than anticipated, it could make landfall as a Cat 2.
Hope the people in the Keys are paying attention. If they are going to evacuate, they'd better do it soon.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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The Force 2005
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Loc: Philadelphia
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I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that will start to head towards the SW and possibly around the tip of FLA due to weak steering currents aloft. This scenario would really be bad for the West Coast of FLA.
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OcalaKT
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Just where would they evacuate the people in the Keys to? They would be moving right into the path of the storm wouldn't they? I wouldn't want to be that Emergency Manager.
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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here we have a possible serious situation today for south Florida...and the will wait their "3" hour period to update things....it's ridiculous....at this point...they should be making adjustments hourly.......to help people get prepared...
this thing, if it stalls...could get nasty.....probably a little too close to shore...but still....
I am a bit irritated at the lack of information......from "official" sources......
am I being a little unreasonable about this?....
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twizted sizter
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Exactly what my last 2 posts said...evac is a nightmare down there anyway & their window is closing.
They're pros so surely their EOC is staying a step ahead.
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Colleen A.
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It all depends on how strong she is and when and where she makes her 2nd landfall. If she makes it farther west than Apalachicola, you'll get rain. If she makes it near Tallahassee, you'll get more rain. You'll also be on the worse side of the hurricane, so the closer the hurricane is to you, the worse your weather will be.
Stay tuned to your local mets...I think the best one you have up there is the one who surfs - Tim Deegan? (I used to live there and watched him all the time) He'll keep you updated on what to expect, how to prepare, etc. He's very detailed.
The only thing you can do now is to make sure you have your hurricane kit ready and pay attention to local weather. Hope that helps! 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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As a storm goes on final approach, they generally go to 2-hourly updates. Given that we haven't had recon data out there and the Doppler radar-based winds aren't able to give us pressure estimates and such, they haven't had a lot to go off of other than radar and satellite presentation -- which hasn't improved rapidly enough to necessitate anything other than 3hrly advisories. I would not be surprised if they go to 2hrly reports starting at 11a, though, given that recon is on its way.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I don't think it is time to raise the panic flag. It definately appears that the forward motion has slowed and it has become better organized. Neither item is unexpected. Hopefully we can get some good recon soon. I doubt this system gets any further south then the Dade/Broward border even if it does start heading south. The only fly is going to be what speed this system moves. The faster the better. If she slows to a crawl and won't make landfall until after tomorrow morning, it is an all bets are off situation.
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Jim
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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When the waits, then I feel people will get trapped by the storm of no where to turn to evacuate. Could be disatorous.
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NewWatcher
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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clark whats your take on this thing, is it going south and then around and ne or are we gonna wait for more info at 11 and recon to make a determination?
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Cpt.Napalm
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Loc: Eglin AFB, FL
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Would Lake Okechobee have any effect on the storm and maintaining strength as it travels over the peninsula? It seems like a fairly large warm body of water would help keep the strength up. Or is it not deep enough to have enough volume to generate any real heat? At this point though it seems like there is quite a bit more movement to the south so the lake might not even be an issue.
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Colleen A.
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Yes, I hope they are. Good point on where they would evacuate to, also. There's no WAY I'd want to be an EOC Manager down there right now. But you have to admit...a lot of people don't leave the Keys at all for hurricanes. They usually are lucky just to get the tourists out.
Also...I wouldn't want to be Jeb Bush right now, either. He probably can't WAIT until 2006. Unfortunately, he has this hurricane season ahead of him and one more to go. I'm surprised he isn't bald yet. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Texas
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I'm looking at the Nexrad radar out of Miami with the storm graphics and associated wind strengths turned on...
Miami Nexrad
Looking at the list of storms, I have seen the strongest winds go from 46 knots about half an hour ago ... to 61 knots just a few minutes ago. I don't know if these are gusts ... but I do think these are surface reports (please let me know if I'm wrong!)
61 knots according to Speed Conversion Online is 70.2 mph whereas 46 knots is 52.94.
That recon will be just in time...
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Clark
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People who needed to evacuate should have done so already. A storm 70 miles offshore is no time to make evacuations. Tropical storm and hurricane warnings were issued well in advance of the storm -- during the watch is when you make preparations, and when the warning is issued is when you get going, not when the storm is on your doorstep. They predicted a hurricane to make landfall, and it's quite possible we see a minimal hurricane at landfall. It's coming in near the predicted path that has been shown for two days now at about the intensity shown -- this should not be a surprise. Saying the is dropping the ball at this point and putting lives in jeopardy is quite frankly not the case...and quite the contrary is true. If this were a rapidly developing situation, which it is not as of yet, you'd see appropriate actions taken.
As for the storm, I expect this WSW jog to be just that -- a jog -- and a more westerly course to resume later today. It will be moving very slow and somewhat erratically, so a small loop or a stair-step motion is quite possible during the day.
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