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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Ryan
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Ed Dunham's Post [Re: Clark]
      #49508 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:02 AM

i can't seem to reply in Ed's "Katrina Stalls" Topic so i am going to reply in here. He states that she should exit the FL/GA border line and possibly become a TS again..would it still be called Katrina and where wud it go after that happens..if anyon has models for this im interested. Thanks

Ryan

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


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Loc: St. Cloud, FL
Forum Rule Review [Re: Ryan]
      #49511 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:11 AM

From the Site Usage Rules:

"Low Content Posts: Please do not make single line posts containing no
content (ie, "cool" "hello", "I agree", or something else completely void of
meaning). Or general cheerleading, for example, if you think someone did a
good job and have nothing else to add send them a PM, it works better for
this. Otherwise posts like these just litter up the forums. Remember, CFHC
is not a Chat Room - it is a Niche topic-oriented site, so please attempt to
stay 'on topic' by placing your posts in the proper Forum."

The attempt here is to avoid the use of one-line posts. CFHC is not a Chat
Room, it is a site for Forum-oriented dialogue, so please use it that way.
Reviewing many of the posts over the past two days, most of the one-liners
add nothing to the exchange of information. A lot of them ask questions that
have already been answered elsewhere - sometimes more than once. Before you
ask a question, take the time to review some of the other Forums - odds are
that it already has been answered. Use the PM feature to thank someone for
their input. Personal information does not belong on this site - it just
clutters it. Keep in mind that there is another Forum for asking questions
of a more general weather nature - please use it when appropriate. When you
post a one-liner like "I think that its moving WSW" and you don't include
anything else - like WHY you think this - its going to get deleted by the
Moderators. Sometimes we let this stuff go, but when we start to receive a
bunch of complaints from other site users - we attempt to resolve the
problem. Please help us by following the site rules - it makes the job of
site moderation a lot easier ... and it provides for a more enjoyable
experience for all of the site users. Thanks for your help on this.


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged:
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: still a ts [Re: TAZMAN]
      #49513 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:14 AM

Quote:

"Bad" quadrant is front right corner.... as it is moving right?




TZAMAN: AS a general rule, yes it appears so. In the case of Katrina, most of the activity is on the entire East side of the storm, but is beginning to wrap around the top.

This link will show you the detail of the windfields forecast by the NHC (now incorporated into our maps)
Windfield Details

This link takes you to a close up of the 11am forecast path for Katrina. Note the shape of the wind fields though out the forecast period, which follow this general pattern:
Zoom of landfall forecast (this image does not auto-update)


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TAZMAN
Weather Watcher


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Loc: Clermont, Fl
Re: still a ts [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #49515 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:20 AM

Sketto.... is that what the shape of the "circle" is representing ? The indented south western side to be the weakest in what you had linked?

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teesda
Registered User


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Re: still a ts [Re: TAZMAN]
      #49517 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:24 AM

I have been interested in hurricanes for a long, long time. My knowledge level is not nearly as advanced as the frequent posters on this board.

I would like to thank each one of you for posting such wonderful links and providing well thought out information.


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: still a ts [Re: TAZMAN]
      #49518 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:26 AM

Quote:

Sketto.... is that what the shape of the "circle" is representing ? The indented south western side to be the weakest in what you had linked?




The rings represent the "extent" of the winds in any given quadrant. In the example provided using the current data for Katrina, you see that there are currently NO Tropical Storm Force winds on the West side of this storm. Looking forward 12 hours in the forecast you see that the NHC indicates that the Tropical Storm force winds will wrap around the system entirely as well as the development of a category 1 hurricane wind field (yellow).

We created these maps due to the public always focusing on the forecast line instead of the true area affected.

It appears you are reading these maps correctly.


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ralphfl
Weather Master


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Posts: 435
Re: still a ts [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #49519 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:30 AM

May i ask what are the darker green and larger circle? that is not TS winds then what is it? and also they dont have it having any TS winds as it cross's the state till it gets back out into the gulf?

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susieq
Weather Watcher


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Loc: Panhandle
Re: still a ts [Re: ralphfl]
      #49521 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:37 AM

What factor will keep Katrina from the Pensacola area? Is high pressure expected here?

--------------------
Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan


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LI Phil
User


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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: still a ts [Re: ralphfl]
      #49522 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:37 AM

Quote:

May i ask what are the darker green and larger circle? that is not TS winds then what is it? and also they dont have it having any TS winds as it cross's the state till it gets back out into the gulf?




if you actually read the map key, the darker green represents TD winds

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Juanky
Registered User


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Pressure drop? [Re: MikeC]
      #49523 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:41 AM

NBC6 news mentioned that the pressure may have dropped to 990mb which would be a considerable drop. It was mentioned in the latest discussion. Can anyone verify this?

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ralphfl
Weather Master


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Posts: 435
Re: still a ts [Re: LI Phil]
      #49524 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:42 AM

Ok thanks time to clean off lens on glasses as i did not see it up there in the corner.Anyway i hope the gdfl does not pan out as the keys are still in the cone and yet i have not seen any ivac right? any guess on when watchs and warnings will come up on the west coast and where?

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: still a ts [Re: LI Phil]
      #49525 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:43 AM

radar presentation hints of another WSW wobble.... this could make a big impact relative to who gets the most damage if it indeed reaches Cat 1 or 2 strength.... can only wait to see if this is indeed a trend or just another wobble...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Pressure drop? [Re: Juanky]
      #49526 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:43 AM

They are going off of a recon report at about 11:05am that stated that the pressure had fallen to 990mb, so it is indeed correct. Flight level winds have kicked up as well and it is possible that Katrina's surface winds are slightly higher than estimated -- 65 to 70mph.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


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Loc: Tucson, AZ
A little confused [Re: LI Phil]
      #49527 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:44 AM

ok from:
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/1421Z
H. 990 MB
MAX FL WIND 60 KTS S QUAD 1426Z

So, did they timestamp the Vortex data message wrong
or the flight wind measurements?
and the pressure is 990 according to this recon report. hmmm any thoughts on what happened?

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: A little confused [Re: Bloodstar]
      #49528 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:47 AM

The time of the center fix was at 1421z, but they went down to the southern side of the storm thereafter and found higher winds there. The actual vortex message was not transmitted until 1505Z -- 11:05am -- thus allowing for a period where higher winds could be found after the initial center estimate.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: A little confused [Re: Clark]
      #49529 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:48 AM

Looks to me like we have an eye folks.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml


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ralphfl
Weather Master


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Posts: 435
Re: A little confused [Re: Bloodstar]
      #49530 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:49 AM

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml

On the last frame looks like a eye correct?


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: A little confused [Re: FlaRebel]
      #49531 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:52 AM

absolutely, I was getting ready to post the same... center now clear of convection and very discernable on radar... very impressive to say the least... sure looks like a hurricane on radar... if not, not very far from being one.. still creaping towards Fort L....

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ralphfl
Weather Master


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Re: A little confused [Re: Frank P]
      #49532 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:55 AM

Still looks like the west side is still not getting any convection to hold yet but does look alot better then the 11am update.I would say its close to hutticane maybe 70mph.

Edited by ralphfl (Thu Aug 25 2005 11:56 AM)


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susieq
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 49
Loc: Panhandle
Re: A little confused [Re: ralphfl]
      #49533 - Thu Aug 25 2005 11:55 AM

What factor will keep Katrina from the Pensacola area? Is high pressure expected here?

--------------------
Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan


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