Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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North/West/Northeast.......... geesh....... move dangit
Actually after reviewing the latest IR loop my best guess is that the center actually looked like it reformed just off to the northeast of where it was, giving the impression of a NE wobble... then again it might have been a wobble to the NE... hard to say... need a couple more loops to confirm what direction this royal pain in the XXX is really going...
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caneman
Unregistered
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Going to the game here shortly. My prediction: Bucs 31and the Lambs 17. Another prediction - Izzie will go in just east of LA.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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12Z is further east in LA than it has been since Friday 12Z. Trending eastward over time. I think my original MS landfall may be pretty good from almost a week out, though it was luck and based on my bullseye for 2002.
ISIDORE IS LIKELY IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING A LOOP...AS THE STORM
HAS NUDGED NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 HR. THERE IS NO CHANGE
TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AS DEVELOPING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST AND DEVELOPING RIDGING
TO THE EAST SHOULD STEER THE STORM NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWARD. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST AND
IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW
FORECASTING ISIDORE TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST AT 72 HR
AND THE MOVING IT ONSHORE IN ABOUT 60 HR. AS NOTED 6 HR AGO...
THE IS LIKELY TOO FAST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS MUCH FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPEEDWISE WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS DOWN THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE...AND THE TRACK MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED EASTWARD IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Steve,
I had the exact paragraph on my clipboard to paste! Looks like, AL,MS, FL panhandle need to keep watching closely.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Everyone from Houston to Destin/Fort Walton needs to pay attention. Chances are someone's taking a Category 3 hit, and plenty of the rest of us will be seeing TS conditions because Isidore should blowup into a fairly large storm.
In other LA news, Gov. Foster has declared a State of Emergency (whatever that means).
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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meto
Weather Guru
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Posts: 140
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isidore is moving slowly to the n.e. lili will become a hurricane soon.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I think Foster is making a preemptive strike in order to get federal aid in case some of his sugar cane gets blown down in Iberia Parish.
Saints - Best NFL team in Louisiana 3-0
Mr Jimmy
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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ahh.. 5pm. isidore came ashore about 24 hours ago. hasnt had enough sightseeing time in the yucatan i guess. when reports start coming in from down there about the flooding this slow mover has caused.. not going to be pretty.
i'm going to call isidore's movement today 'quasi stationary'. it hasnt moved a degree in any direction since this morning and thats still enough for me. every time the storm wobbles somebody claims it to be the new direction, but i'm not buying. think it will drift northwest or north overnight and be back offshore some time tomorrow. hard to say how quickly it will spin back up. the low level cyclonic envelope is massive.. covers the nw caribbean and just about the entire gulf. aloft one notices the rather large anticyclone. some people this morning saying 'izzy's a goner!' gave me a pretty good laugh.. their observations were about as nonsensical as saying Andrew was going to weaken to a depression crossing south florida. anyhow.. dont see isidore getting a steady north movement until it is deepening again.. think the track is much too fast. earliest this thing will be up on the northern gulf coast is friday. coincedentally i do think movement will be northeast at the time of landfall... somewhere in the central gulf coast. think the people calling it back to florida need to consider the ridging that has built over there.. the storm would have to wait til the weekend to come back there.. and with lili maybe running up around the same time you dont have a place to put em both. cant have two hurricanes.. thats got my crying buckets for florida. awww...
lili.. bill earlier you asked what i was thinking when i said the center was running ahead again. look at the convective bulge on the southwest side of the storm, notice the low level clouds banded around underneath. that would be the center. the curvature in the high clouds is still NE of there.. lili isnt stacked. thats why ive said it wont really intensify until it slows down, improves its structure.
kyle isnt moving much. it's blazing along at light speed compared to izzy, but still not moving much.
other areas.. nothing imminent. seeing another storm in the next few days wouldnt surprise me though.
marco... polo. polo.. is actually an eastpac name.. would be funny if they put them on same-year name lists.
HF 2131z23september
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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The entire MS Coast - Hancock, Harrison and Jackson Counties are now under a flood watch. Most of SE and SC Louisiana are too.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/LIX/
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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i think that anyone from maybe central LA over to abot Fort Walton Beach needa watch out maybe strong cat 2 or 3 my guess for landfall is near rick in mobile. seems like a reasonable idea right now.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Well thanks a lot Steve... "Let me say thing about dat"... as Buddy D. so eloquently puts it. My original forecast was Fl Panhandle (pensacola) but over time I have shifted it more towards the west (hey, if the models can change their minds ever 6 hours, I can change mine once.....) Earlier in the season I stated that NO was due for a big hit this year, so what an opportune time to go with that prediction....
New Orleans it is.... has to .... Saints are 3-0, would you expect otherwise... Oh, and on a final note for Kevin.......... Go Rams.... Bucks will be down by two games to the Saints and Panthers ..... gee are they mathematically eliminated from the playoffs already.... hehe.... just kidding Kevin
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Mobile gets its disproportunate share of storms, which really isn't that fair for the rest of us. You'll be on the east side. Minimum you'll see is TS conditions unless the storm comes in 50 miles west of here.
Funny thing is, I don't have my adrenaline pumping yet and somehow, someway don't feel too scared about a Cat 3 possibly on my doorstep. I don't know, call it a weird feeling probably induced by a desire for a free day off.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Rick in Mobile
Unregistered
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be back in the water getting his go juice in about 4-8 hours...
Hurricane tonight...late....
cat 2 tomorrow
cat 3 tomorrow night...
cat 4 day later..once nicely out in open water...
heading north...then slightly northeast...I guess I don't have to post where anymore...ha!
sure hope I am not right....just finished mowing the yard...everything looks so green and plush and nice....
pine trees will snap like twigs in a cat 3. they go round and round...get more erratic as the incessant wind blows...and suddenly you hear a loud snap!.....then no more tree where you saw it whipping around....
course, in a cat 5 storm....the oaks and houses do that....
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I'm still going with central-eastern GOMEX for a landfall. Isidore may actually carve right along the ridge...that would bring him in just west of Pensacola. Still sticking with my predictions.
For all folks in Central Florida, we won't see direct impact from Isidore, but some indirect impacts can't be ruled out. Lili may be the real deal for us right now...I can see the ridge breaking down while Lili is south of western/central Cuba with a N turn. Two storms effecting Florida in just a couple of days? Could happen.
Kevin
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
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Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
Looking at this latest image, I believe he's taken more of that northern direction the is talking about. Anyone else see that. My eyes are absolutely gone! 
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I see what you are seeing in the slight N or even NE movement, but the bottom line is that the center is "wobbling" around somewhat. It does appear will have to shift the forecast further E with time, heck, even Beven admitted that.
Lili looks like she's breaking the speed limit right now, she'd better slow down or else the "hurricane cops" will give her a ticket. Still looks like a slow-down to 15-18 knots by 36 hours. That would be ideal for intensification. No one ever said she would develop rapidly in this area. If she survives E. Caribbean, we could explosive development. Cuba, Haiti, Jamaica, and Florida (down the road) need to keep their eyes on this.
Alternative MNF prediction (plan B):
Bucs 752,000
Rams -752,000 
Kevin
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Geez, doesn't anybody work on Monday's anymore?
After being out in the sun all day, and it was a sweet day here in NE Fla., my eyes can't seem to focus on a NE drift by Izzy, so I'll take everyone's word that he's really doing it. Give the credit, there going to stick by this forecast to the end.
I really kind of feal sorry for the Yucatan; in reality I don't think they got any warning that a Cat3 was going to be a direct hit on them, and then sit for 30-40 hours right on top of them. Wonder what the people were being told before it hit? Hopefully they saw Izzy out there and took it seriously.
OK, here's my guess. Since the whole gulf is under his influence, if, and I've been saying this for days, so I'll repeat myself for my own amusement:
if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if
he decides to come off the Yucatan, and it needs to be soon, I don't think there will very much NW movement, if any at all.
N, NNE, MAYBE a little NE. Remember, some of us may have even said he won't get past 90W. He's not there yet. 
Landfall prediction:NO to Rickinmobile, Weak Cat2 at most.
Lili, first and foremost, is Florida's babe to watch now. We'll be the first to let the rest of you know either where it hits us, or if she decides to go visit Jamaca/Cuba who would just be thrilled to see another hurricane so soon. 
Kyle is lost. Will somebody find his mother so he'll go home, please?
Jacksonville Jags: At least we will be the second best team in the state after tonight!
Joe in JAX
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Well, it looks like we got lucky again here in Texas. Because of Izzy stalling out over the Yucatan it gave the trough enough time to be able to pick it up and a position east of where it was suppose to. We should be in for some pretty nice days now.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Go read Joe B.'s 5:00 update on Isidore. For all fans of storms, you should do. He does an analysis of whatt happens with a landfalling storm and how the pressure attempts to stabilize.
Steve
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meto
Weather Guru
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Posts: 140
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look at around 21.2 88.7 going slowly ne
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