JG
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
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Holy smokes!
Look at this vortex message:
URNT12 KNHC 261451
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/14:34:20Z
B. 25 deg 03 min N
082 deg 13 min W
C. 700 mb 2875 m
D. 45 kt
E. 318 deg 031 nm
F. 014 deg 081 kt
G. 306 deg 013 nm
H. 971 mb
I. 10 C/ 3046 m
J. 17 C/ 2871 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. OPEN N
M. C9
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1012A OB 05
MAX FL WIND 81 KT NW QUAD 14:30:50 Z
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Confirms what the radar observations show: a little south of west at about 5mph...also the northern eyewall is eroding...the lowlevel atmosphere north of the system is unusualy dry and the strom is unable to build any real convection north and northeast of the center...no rapid intensification probable in this scenario...I think it will drift west for another day before we see too much movement north, unless intensification rapidly occurs and I think that is out of the question now, for all the reason's HF stated a short while ago.
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doug
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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maybe,. maybe not 971 is quite a drop.... will take a little while for the winds to catch up but that's quite a surpising drop... wonder if its correct????
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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Hi. My mind is just coming back to working order. Long Night in Miami.. amazing storm. Reading along here and wanted to add that I respect this storm tremendously and it's desire to go west and not pull north and really do believe that after looking at the water vapor loops and models that this storm will follow the western side of the forecast track. When a storm follows the pattern this storm has.. turning west around Miami vs going through the Keys on an angle it is more likely it keeps going west longer. Andrew and Betsy being examples and they both went to LA.. not the Panhandle.
Will see as the day unfolds but the one thing I do think will be a given is a little longer in the Gulf and it will turn into a Major Storm.
Guess this is the last we will see.
Any news on the family of five missing in the Gulf/Florida Bay who left Marathon early yesterday and haven't been heard from since?
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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MoparMitch
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 28
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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What a difference a few miles can make. My dad lives in Boca Raton, and I have a sister that lives Coral Springs. My dad told me that it was more of a wind event for him, with only a few showers. My sister had a lot more rain and more intense rain, although nothing compared to locations further south.
So now we look to the panhandle (again) and then inland. It has been a wet summer here in metro atlanta, and did not help. I had seeded my lawn just in time for to wash most of it away. So I tried again, and now . Do you think somebody is trying to tell me something???
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bn765
Weather Hobbyist
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TWC just confirmed the vortex message.... the pressure is down to 971mb
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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radar loop now showing a definite West motion during the past 30 minutes or so... see if it continues
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kbyx.shtml
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Posts: 184
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Saw that also...that's a big drop in a short amount of time...she's certainly full of surprises.
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FloydRTurbo
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 19
Loc: Des Moines, IA
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It looks to me on Key West radar that the eyewall, while it may have eroded to the north after exiting ino the GOM, it starting to wrap around from the SE to the NE around the COC, closing inside of the previous ragged north edge of the eyewall. I don't think this would qualify as an eyewall replacement, but it looks like a tighter reformation of the previous signature eye which was much larger. I also noticed something on the visible sat this morning that made it look like this could be happening. Am I seeing this correctly?
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Winds are up to 80kt as well. Note that the previous pressure of 981 was largely estimated by buoy data and continuity, so it may have been just a touch high. New advisory packing coming out shortly; the updated info is on the main page.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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Have to say ... North Dade mostly had a wind event. Big trees down, branches.. medium size palm trees... what you would expect from a Cat 1. Power out (though I have thankfully, luckily got it back) and STREETLIGHTS mostly out ..some broken. South Dade had more of a water event. No flooding here. Very little water if any even in driveways that usually gather water after rainstorms. South Dade has water damage.. and wind.
Was a beautiful, long eye... calm wind. Strong weather was on second half.. violent weather but by then the storm was stronger.
Enjoying reading what you all posted last night.. Bobbi
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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palmetto
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Looks to me to be just north of due west, looking at the Key West radar. (This from the very scientific method of slowing the animation down and using my mouse pointer as reference.) Am I just seeing things?
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
Ron, the FLA tracking map doesn't show a path hugging the coast:
http://www.wfla.com
Is it somewhere else on the site?
Ed, the map on their website is the official track. At 8 AM this morning, their on-air MET, Steve Jervie, showed their model simulation of that hugged the coast. If I remember, their model had the storm running up the FL east coast too a couple of days ago so take it with a grain of salt. Their Viper model last year did correctly predict s abrupt turn to the right into Punta Gorda though.
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RJB
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Officially up to 100mph (Cat 2) now, according to the Tampa NBC met.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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a wobble perhaps, it wobbled back west... still looks west to me, but .... I'm not quite ready to use the "N" word just yet... however, eventually is going to happen... big question is when and where
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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Quote:
Looks to me to be just north of due west, looking at the Key West radar. (This from the very scientific method of slowing the animation down and using my mouse pointer as reference.) Am I just seeing things?
IMO you are seeing things you may see a band going around but the center has no north movement in it all all at this time.But the south movement has ended like they forcasted it too early today.
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Extreme slow mover through the Gulf at this time of year. God only knows how long it'll take to move N and how strong it'll be by the time it hits land...
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4636
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I've created a new Forecast Lounge topic for discussion about possibilities with 's second landfal
You can find it here
I included a few comparison maps there with past storms as an example.
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Quote:
Looks to me to be just north of due west, looking at the Key West radar. (This from the very scientific method of slowing the animation down and using my mouse pointer as reference.) Am I just seeing things?
Looks W and steady again.The and ETA have gone further W on there last runs.I like to see if the does the same.The has her turning N at 82.2' I think it's going to be a little while longer.As Clark said today is the day that will determine where she is going
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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New Advisory
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