Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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National Weather Service loop:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kbyx.shtml
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Hola from Atlanta again.....
Obviously the NWS office is taking this storm VERY, VERY seriously as they have already issued the following special weather statement at 11 am this morning...
EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 7 INCHES ...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO GRIFFIN TO
ATHENS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND PEOPLE LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE LIVING ALONG PEACHTREE CREEK...NANCY
CREEK...PROCTOR CREEK...BIG CREEK...SOPE CREEK...AND SUWANEE
CREEK...SHOULD BEGIN PREPARATIONS TO SECURE PROPERTY FROM FLOODING
AND MAKE TENTATIVE PLANS TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND.
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND THEREFORE ANY
SHIFT OF THE TRACK FROM THE FORECAST WILL EITHER DECREASE OR
INCREASE THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF RAIN AND WHERE IT WILL FALL.
and with a story in today's AJC about how if Atlanta gets only .20 more rain and we've set a yearly record, we could be in for a major flood event just like with Cindy and .
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
Edited by Jeffmidtown (Fri Aug 26 2005 04:28 PM)
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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God could you imagine a Cat 4 storm moving N to N/E at 6-7mph and the rain it would drop in one place?
Maybe its just me but i do not see much of anything that is going to move this storm N very fast...
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
I believe that at this point it is still moving almost due West, but it seems to be dropping to the south every now and then. I wonder if this is because it is trying to reform it's eye. Any thought?
I thought said movement is still 265; still S of W. In the previous 12 hours of the 225/230 deg SW movement, the heavy convective band to the S had been dropping S in what seemed like stairstep movements. So this may be an element of the forward motion.
However with intensifying and with the heavy convection bands still trying to wrap around and form a more uniform shape, doesn't it seem likely that we'll see some erratic jogs? Every time I have seen the jogs on the ones I've watched so far this summer, it is related to intensification.
I am interested to understand more about the jogs that occur in this way. Is it somehow related to the inertia of the heavy convection that is forming as intensification occurs? I wondered about this last night with . It seemed sometimes that the lopsided band had an inertia and a pull on the center of the storm, such that the movement of the eye temporarily curved around the convection, causing a jog to the S.
It is almost certain that in general it is going W and then a turn to the N, so I am thinking don't read too much into every jog as far as direction.
Before I went to sleep last night (I stayed up for the 3am advis), I thought that once got out over water the bands would be on the S and SE (which they are) but expected them to wrap around to the N and W faster than what I am currently seeing on radar, especially since sat image shows outflow is good.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Fri Aug 26 2005 04:42 PM)
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MadDog
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 51
Loc: DeBary, Florida
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Rainfall totals so far for this storm in the Keys is 8 - 10 inches. I wonder if they were prepared for this deluge?
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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SPECULATION FORECAST..............................................You know,, this storm has even confused me on the track and the best model outside the has been the ETA. I say this cause I remember when this was just named a TS way down near Abaco and points south that the ETA came out and said it was going to move wsw like the but the had a error in it jogging this NW at first to north of Palm Beach before the wsw turn. ETA hasnt been consistant though in the fact it wants to jump on the rest of the models and turn this with the rest. Again with the 12Z it does but at first it keeps it wsw for 24hours then comes to a drift west then a sharper turn N on Sunday then NE to where my landfall is between Cross City and Cedar Key Monday morning.
I havnt seen most of the 12Z runs yet. I looked at the poor and I mean poor by it not having a good record on Tropical Systems. It does well in midlatitude systems though, thats why the NWS likes to use it. Anyways the has been the little brother..always tags along with him 12-24hrs later.It has landfall between NO. and Pens,Fl. IM throwing out anything west of Panama City, Fl and Ill give ya my reasons now. Once again, this is just speculation and Ill probably get this wrong. I dont like doing this but I like to give a 3 day forecast. My confidence in this forecast goes again most models and you can take the logic in it but of course dont rely on it,
As I see it, we have a strong ridge thats weakning over LA and Miss. That along with a inverted weak trough over the NW carribean has pulled sw-wsw over the last 24 hours as most predicted. Thing was how strong the ridge was. Stronger the ridge and shape of it n-s pulled it down more. Also weak trough heading now into the se with dry air into central florida. This may carve her more sw then expected over the next 12-24hours. I expect the ridge over the La area to migrate west and weaken as a trough over the western great lakes and Ohio valley move over the Mississippi valley by Saturday. The main mechanism I see is a ridge entering the NW U.S. at this time moving NE. With a ridge building NE it will cause more of a trough over the central and eventually eastern US. This is being supported by a 2nd pulse dropping fast out of Wyoming into the plains currently this will be the drive to push N and NE Sunday into Monday. I expect the trough to dig into the Tennessee valley on Saturday and SE US on Sunday. The current ridge will be be over SE TX by then with a weak ridge over the Bahamas. A weakness will then be formed between the 2 pushing anything N in the eastern gulf. Now I expect the trough to slow but continue SE across GA and Ala by Monday morning making anything in the northen and eastern gulf to turn NE.
Overall with that being said above,,expect to move wsw with a slowdown later tomorrow. I then expect a wobble or 2 in a N, NE direction before a slow NNW motion Saturday night and a turn to the N and NNE during the day on Sunday. By Sunday night she will be up near 27-28N and near 85 W and will move NE late sunday night into monday making landfall Monday near Cross City -Cedar Key. Strengthning to a Cat 3 or higher isnt out of the question ,,infact I said way before it was near florida that she would be a Cat 3 in the gulf. Right now I think she can peak out at 130-135mph. Nearing landfall I think she will be down some due to shear along the SE U.S. possibly 115-120mph. Anyways this is just speculation and using maybe not the BEST of my abilities at forecasting but trying to find out a solution to this storm.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Rainfall totals so far for this storm in the Keys is 8 - 10 inches. I wonder if they were prepared for this deluge?
Last night I was wondering when the more westward movement was going to start occuring. I figured that if it kept on 225 deg, around morning would have been sitting just to the NW of Key West. What an unpleasant surprise that would have been to many residents who went to bed hearing it was going to go due W of Ft. Lauderdale and exit at Naples, to wake up to the convection bands of a Cat 1 hurricane. As it was, it didn't go quite that close (not due to a change in dir though, but due to the fact that it slowed down), although it came to NW of Key West and is now moving to the W of that. Early early this morning, when it was just coming offshore, the outer bands had a curve that matched the curve of the keys, and just sat there spinning over them. It is a little strange. The flood predictions for FL mainland also seemed to be a little out of sync. They were for further north, and all last night the rain bands camped over Homestead and points N, and you could see the rain totals there go over 12" as the evening progressed, and see the 10" and 12" areas expand. The general warnings were correct for a heavy rain event on S FL, but as far as the specific areas that were most affected, I guess that one was hard to call in advance.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Fri Aug 26 2005 05:10 PM)
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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The models seem compelling that will eventually turn north. But since she appears to be making constant SW jogs- would it be possible that she can also slow down and could that trough force her to prematurely turn NE instead of N?
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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The radar seems consistent now that any further slide to the south is halting.
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doug
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
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This goes with the question I asked earlier. Does any one think that this might have a chance of turning North early and coming across the state? She is going to have to be going west for a while before she turns North to go up to the panahandle. Just don't know. I do not know where to find all of the pressure maps with the ridges to try and speculate. I have not learned THAT much yet. Any insight........
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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Reaper
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 45
Loc: Lake Placid, Fla
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It's gonna stink if she gets out past radar range.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Okay, I'll admit that my eyes are tired...but it appears to me that if is moving, it's not moving very fast. It appeared on the Key West radar that earlier the NW quadrant of the eye was open; last loops look like it has closed again.
A few more hours of loops shall give us a better idea of where she will eventually end up...I hope.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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This thing is strating to scare me a bit. All that warm water ahead of it and 100mph ALREADY. Models all shifting to somewhere between N.O. and Panama City. Not good.  Is it even worth living here anymore? We are getting pretty used to it.
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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No news reports on how much rain cuba has gotten but the outer bands have been sitting over cuba for like FOREVER...
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ZooKeeper
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 24
Loc: Live in Chiefland & work in Ce...
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I'm going to be praying to the Gods that you're wrong on this one even though it seems well thought out. I live 20 miles from Cedar Key down the Suwannee and only about 17 acres of my 40 is dry. If this baby comes thru there the low lying areas along the river are going to see some serious flooding. Also, this area was only brushed by some of the storms last year and had some major problems (flooding, power outages, tree damage, etc.).
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Posts: 184
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Was wondering when & if you were going to say this...wondered about such a scenario since yesterday a.m. & although landfall was close to offical the track was further south...too many reports of unprepared & the stakes are even higher now that she's in the gulf. If you look at the 1st dozen of the SWFMD animated runs BAMM had at 1st latched onto a similiar course as is on now although they have the north turn much further east than the panhandle or big bend area.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
The radar seems consistent now that any further slide to the south is halting.
No, but movement is very slow now to the SW.
Not zoomed in, it looks like no movement at all.
Go to Key West radar loop...zoom in very tight on the eye area. Stop the motion and compare the general location of the center in the first and last frames, and you will see a small but definite SW movement as predicted.
Looks like that convection is starting to wrap around.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Fri Aug 26 2005 05:16 PM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Best guess is that this will not recross the peninsula! Stay with that, as that is what the data indicates. The models run statistical analysis of the data and that is what they tell us...What Scott suggested above however, based on his visual analysis, is still in the so called cone of uncertainty.
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doug
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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
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Its down to 25.0N Some radars I looked at it looked as if it might have dipped just below but its back up.
URNT12 KNHC 261614
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/15:56:50Z
B. 25 deg 00 min N
082 deg 27 min W
C. 700 mb 2870 m
D. 55 kt
E. 49 deg 035 nm
F. 136 deg 074 kt
G. 53 deg 019 nm
H. 971 mb
I. 13 C/ 3051 m
J. 18 C/ 3057 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1012A OB 11
MAX FL WIND 83 KT SE QUAD 14:40:40 Z
EYEWALL RAGGED
Closed Eye and I look what the pilot said...... This is about a half hour old.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Yeah I'm wondering if that drier air to the NNW of the storm is impacting the NW side?
Well the 17:02Z vortex msg lowers the pressure from 971mb to 969mb, temp gradient between the eye and eyewall has increased from 5 to 7 deg, max flt winds incr from 83kt to 87 kt in SE quad...however eye has gone eliptical (as can be seen on radar) and pilot's comments: EYE WALL OPEN AT 10,000FT IN NW, CLOSED AT SURFACE.
The latest wv sat image does show a little drying out on the W side.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Fri Aug 26 2005 05:59 PM)
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