Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Not to talk something completely unimportant to but I was watching and I could have sworn if I could picture what FtLaudBob would look like and act like - his twin was on tonight talking about how "awesome" the storm was.....I am not cracking a joke on you but, I had to chuckle and look up to see if there was a name under him - like Bob....:)
Hope everyone has a safe/dry evening!
Katie
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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I decided to look at old tracks to see if there was a historical precedent for ... I only found nice colored maps on the page for 1995 and after (and the Unysis maps were impossible to decipher), so that's what I used. Here's what I found regarding southern motion in the GOM (in case anyone cares... keep in mind I was just quickly looking at these plots, so I may have missed something):
2002-TS Edouard crossed FL at a higher lat than , but in the same WSW direction. It seemed to dissipate in the GOM... I wonder why? I'd say we can hope for the same with , but too late...
2002-TS Hanna went south on Sept. 12th
1999-TS Harvey went south before crossing FL in left to right on Sept. 20th
Where can I get readable graphics for years before 1995.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I think because the did such a decent job with and Emily we sorta expected it for every storm.... well is proving we're not as smart as we think we might be.... there will be a lot of anxious people throughout the gulf coast states for the next two to three days....
Very true! We got spoiled, I think. I do remember numerous storms that the and global models said would go to a specific location, but that the hurricane had its own idea.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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From Steve Gregory's Wunderblog...
Quote:
A high level, G-IV surveillance mission is planned for this evening, and it will do a major data sampling near and around the periphery of the storm to collect more accurate atmospheric data surrounding the storm that will be used to initialize tonight's 00Z run of the models. This normally results in an improved forecast in what is normally a data sparse region. This will be a major decision point for s to how far west they may or may not adjust the forecast track for .
Steve Gregory Wunderblog
You all in AL. and points west hold onto your hats.
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Jara
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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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Dr. D,
Try the historical maps on Weather Undergound site. Scroll down the page to find the section on Atlantic Hurricane history. Site also has excellent tropical analysis by Jeff Masters and Steve Gregory, but skip the comments sections. More chat room, wishcasting and other clutter on the blog .
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Thanks... I thought I remembered them having historical, but I didn't scroll down enough.... I will amend my ramblings in a bit.
Ok, so, using wunderground... from 1994 and earlier (but I stopped in 1970)... Wow, not many in the recent history.. none from 85-94!
1985 Hurr. Bob went a little south in the GOM before crossing FL left to right.
1983 Hurr Barry... this is the best one... did almost exactly what did, but a little higher lat... ended up in Mexico.
1977 Hurr Babe... closer to LA, but also went south.. ended up in central LA.
1972 Unnamed ST Storm... went south across FL right to left and died in GOM
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Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Fri Aug 26 2005 09:07 PM)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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What is the name of the really old weather guy in N.O. that they always pull out of mothballs to forcast hurricanes? I can remember during Georges he nailed that forcast. I also remember that he refused to use anything but a drawing for his maps...damn, what is his name?
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Steve Gregory Wunderblog
You all in AL. and points west hold onto your hats.
Thanks - but are you implying that those of us in the Florida Panhandle are off the hook? I don't think it's safe to say that by ANY means!
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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hats and other things as well for sure... just wondering to myself just how far this is going to go west... read on anther forum that Joe Bastardi was forecasting Cat 5 for NO.... can someone confirm that was indeed his forecast.... that's hard to believe ...
at 7:52 pm I have at ~24.7n 83.5w.... still looks wsw (per IR) or just south of due west (per radar)..
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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You might also want to try this page...
NOAA Historical Interactive Hurricane Track Page
You can plot historical storms within a certain distance of a certain lat/lon pair.
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Jason Kelley
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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Call it a gut feeling or whatever. I don't think she gets west of Pensacola. I think she meanders enough before she starts north that the NE curve will catch her and put her between Pensacola and PC. Any mets care to weigh in. Jason?? Clark??
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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I really don't think anyone is safe, way too much uncertainly with the forecast... guarantee the is pulling out all the tricks to get the best forecast they can... so much is riding on this attm...
heck, I would be worring if I was in the Yucatan... 
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged:
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
I decided to look at old tracks to see if there was a historical precedent for ... I only found nice colored maps on the page for 1995 and after (and the Unysis maps were impossible to decipher), so that's what I used. Here's what I found regarding southern motion in the GOM (in case anyone cares... keep in mind I was just quickly looking at these plots, so I may have missed something):
2002-TS Edouard crossed FL at a higher lat than , but in the same WSW direction. It seemed to dissipate in the GOM... I wonder why? I'd say we can hope for the same with , but too late...
2002-TS Hanna went south on Sept. 12th
1999-TS Harvey went south before crossing FL in left to right on Sept. 20th
Where can I get readable graphics for years before 1995.
Edouard 2002
Hanna 2002
Harvey 1999
We have the overall tracks and U.S. close up zoom for all tracks since 1851. Working to release some of this content tonight or early tomorrow...
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
What is the name of the really old weather guy in N.O. that they always pull out of mothballs to forcast hurricanes? I can remember during Georges he nailed that forcast. I also remember that he refused to use anything but a drawing for his maps...damn, what is his name?
Nash Roberts, WWL-TV
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Jason Kelley
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Eye is forming. You can see it here, on the infared:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Quote:
What is the name of the really old weather guy in N.O. that they always pull out of mothballs to forcast hurricanes? I can remember during Georges he nailed that forcast. I also remember that he refused to use anything but a drawing for his maps...damn, what is his name?
Nash Roberts? Whoops... sorry Jason, you beat me!
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Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Fri Aug 26 2005 09:08 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Call it a gut feeling or whatever. I don't think she gets west of Pensacola. I think she meanders enough before she starts north that the NE curve will catch her and put her between Pensacola and PC. Any mets care to weigh in. Jason?? Clark??
Bite your tongue! *I* am midway between Pensacola and PC!!!
Having said that... you may very well be right. Looking at the sat. and wv loops it looks like that's a line just NW of - feeder band, or whatever... that has been growing steadily over the last several hours, in addition to the "trough" to the storm's west. the line north of the storm may get sucked in and cause a northward component? I dunno, but it seems feasible to my thinking.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Quote:
Quote:
Call it a gut feeling or whatever. I don't think she gets west of Pensacola. I think she meanders enough before she starts north that the NE curve will catch her and put her between Pensacola and PC. Any mets care to weigh in. Jason?? Clark??
Bite your tongue! *I* am midway between Pensacola and PC!!!
Having said that... you may very well be right. Looking at the sat. and wv loops it looks like that's a line just NW of - feeder band, or whatever... that has been growing steadily over the last several hours, in addition to the "trough" to the storm's west. the line north of the storm may get sucked in and cause a northward component? I dunno, but it seems feasible to my thinking.
Hugh, I'm in Tallahassee, so I ain't wishcasting. I'd really like Jason or Clark to give their opinion on this.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
What is the name of the really old weather guy in N.O. that they always pull out of mothballs to forcast hurricanes? I can remember during Georges he nailed that forcast. I also remember that he refused to use anything but a drawing for his maps...damn, what is his name?
Nash Roberts. He's not really that old.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Hugh, I'm in Tallahassee, so I ain't wishcasting. I'd really like Jason or Clark to give their opinion on this.
Me too, as for getting their opinion. It's really anybody's guess right now. I would not be shocked if it hit Cuba - seriously. But it likely that it is boucing around, trying to find a weakness in the ridge, but being blocked.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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