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Clark
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Quick Update
      #50572 - Sat Aug 27 2005 01:38 AM

This is only a quick update to last night's forecast. Given the continued westward motion and the apparent reluctance of the storm to slow down and feel the weakness in the ridge, the forecast landfall position must be shifted considerably further westward. Projected landfall is now within 75mi of either side of the MS/AL border -- HF's initial call -- Sunday night into Monday morning as a category 4 hurricane. The potential is there for the storm, as it passes over the loop current, to briefly reach strong category 4 intensity, though I expect some weakening before landfall. Even still, this is not comforting news to residents in the projected landfall area due to wind mpacts, to the east (Mobile Bay) due to surge, and to the west (New Orleans/Lake Ponchatrain) also due to surge.

The reasoning behind the previous forecast is sound beyond the first day or two; it is the motion during that time that appears to lead the storm further to the west than initially predicted. This comes as quite the surprise to most all forecasters, including the NHC, and proves how much we still don't know about tropical cyclones and their environments.


A full update will be provided, if necessary, tomorrow night or early Sunday morning.

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