Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Good call Kevin and a reason why people shouldn't use long-range radar to plot motion of a storm. There was a brouhaha over this on another website yesterday where the guy (vested NW FL interest) kept talking about the "turn had begun" I kept reminding them all not to watch long range or the IR at night, but if they were going to do that, consider the vortex fixes because those are the only true measurements not taken from certain angles or with certain optical biases. So what do we have now? We've got a storm at 24.22 which is nearly as low as it has been all day (had bee up to 24.55 for a while earlier) and a continued trend around 270+/-. The 's New Orleans East to Waveland track crosses 25N at 87W. They're probably going to hit it fairly close. We'll have to see what comes out in another hour or so as for track updates and such. Model guidance @ 12Z (GFS/GFDL) swung from their MS 06Z runs back into Louisiana. The low level models run off of that should reflect similar solutions as they are updated. There's a shot the 18Z's move further east while the 00Z's may swing back west.
But if you're on the Gulf Coast, don't be complacent. Deal with the potential risk for what it is. Just because you're in Mobile, Pensacola, Seaside, Houma, New Iberia or whatever, understand your threat and your tolerance for inconvenience and decide accordingly. I'm next to positive that I'm going to try to ride things out here with my dog who has taken slightly ill. My kids and wife will be out. I have places to go if necessary and a bike to ride to get there should auto curfews go into effect at some point.
As for Louisiana, they're doing the right thing. They didn't want to panic everyone considering we don't have the time required to implement the contra-flow plans via the phased in systems they use because we're too close to landfall. Several of the low lying areas called for mandatories early today and many of the parishes have also called for voluntaries. The contra-flow isn't just on the I-10 east through MS, it also utilizes the I-55, I-10 west to Houston and the I-59. All tolls are canceled and they're allowing as many people as possible to still go about their planning and business before they kick into high gear.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
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Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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If continue to move at 7 MPH I think this trough is going to have time to take her to the east more then expected. How fast does a trough moves?
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belfast-jj
Registered User
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Hi i'm new round here - just wonder if anyone had links to live internet News Stations ?
jj.....
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
I Lines for gas, ice, and propane are expanding as we speak. We have made the decision to stay
Since evac plans have been on my mind, I'm curious why you would consider evacuation since you live in Baton Rouge. Wouldn't Baton Rouge be one of the places that people from NO would be evacuating to, since it is so many miles from the coast (I am guessing around 50mi?).
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Has anyone noticed on that Jim Cantore's last two reports at 2 & 3 pm have been on tape? I wonder if he's heading towards NoLa or what?
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Coastal cities aren't the only places that will feel the effects from this...I'm 75-80 miles from either coast in Fl...we had evacs here last yr for mobile homes & low lying areas...we lost 15% of structures here & many more sustained some type of damage...10 miles west of me was severe damage from ...along the lines of 75% damage...either total loss or varying degree of structural damage...inland areas also have greater chance of tornado damage as well.
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KimmieL
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 26
Loc: Baton Rouge, La
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We made the decision to stay based on our past experience and what our local gov. is telling us. Know several people in BR who are leaving town. For Andrew we had hurricane force winds and had no power for over a week. Same thing for Betsy when she came through. We may be inland, but we do still experience the wind and we are under an inland hurricane watch at this time.
Kimmie
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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NHC Track Vs. Recon Data..
Dave
NHC Track Vs. Recon
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
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Anyone else see a slight rotation in the storms lingering off the coast of South Carolina?
Savannah Radar
Edited by zacros (Sat Aug 27 2005 07:39 PM)
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
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Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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It looks like is making a slightly north turn know very slowley it might be a begin of a major track shift.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
It looks like is making a slightly north turn know very slowley it might be a begin of a major track shift.
Every single time I have seen it look like it was making a slight turn north in the last several hours, it has then smoothed out back to the west. It's still 6-12 hours away from the turn in the forecast, I think.
Having said that, the water vapor continues to make me think that the turn is going to begin sooner than that if it has not already begun.
ETA:
Forget the wobbles for a few minutes. Just LOOK at the latest VIS imagery. IS becoming MUCH LARGER based upon my untrained eyeballs. It's clear that even if the motion does not have a northward component (yet), the is EXPANDING northward in a fairly dramatic fashion. The trend of non-weakening that I said I figured would last for several more hours may be over already.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sat Aug 27 2005 07:48 PM)
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jr928
Weather Guru
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Posts: 101
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huh? water vapor shows nothing to turn this hurricane for another 12 hours min. my guess, 4pm cst advisory stays the course or further west land and then quick east turn. just my two cents, but vapor sure shows staying the course.
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
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Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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One's this baby turns north i dont think it going to head back west more of a N/E track.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
huh? water vapor shows nothing to turn this hurricane for another 12 hours min. my guess, 4pm cst advisory stays the course or further west land and then quick east turn. just my two cents, but vapor sure shows staying the course.
You're not looking at the same WV I am, then. I don't see anything to make the storm turn north necessarily - I see the storm expanding northward more than it's moving westward.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Recon just reported a reading of 119 knot winds ... that's 137 mph...
Edited by Big Red Machine (Sat Aug 27 2005 07:51 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Recon just reported a reading of 119 knot winds ... that's 137 mph...
I don't see the recon report at - what was the pressure?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I added a few radio/tv links on the main page article for those looking for them.
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
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Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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That trough north of is going to turn the hurricane more to the N/NE but my question is when is this going to happend. It might happend sooner than expected that trough extend's real far south just passing texas right know so it all depends on the forward speed of the hurricane on how fast it moves. If the trough beats it then we have a different ball game that would cause a more treat to Florida than Louisiana.
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jr928
Weather Guru
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Posts: 101
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can't say that I disagree hugh. I would say my very untrained eye is seeing the stronger storm tightening again and since it grew during eye wall repl it look more northward. but I'm an idiot when it comes to real weather so bear with me
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
That trough north of is going to turn the hurricane more to the N/NE but my question is when is this going to happend. It might happend sooner than expected that trough extend's real far south just passing texas right know so it all depends on the forward speed of the hurricane on how fast it moves. If the trough beats it then we have a different ball game that would cause a more treat to Florida than Louisiana.
I've always been of the understanding - based upon what I've heard from meterologists on TV - that you could tell which way a storm was going to turn (sometimes) by the elongation of the cloud pattern. If there is any truth to this and if it applies to (nothing much ELSE has seemed to apply) - Pensacola is in trouble.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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