hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged:
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
|
|
People i dont even think the big band of florida is out of the woods yet. This system been tricking us ever since it made landfall in south flordia.
|
SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
|
|
Why did they do a Hurricane watch for such a small area? You'd think it would extend all the way to like Destin, FL or something.
--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
|
richisurfs
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
|
|
I have to say that I sure hope Pensacola is out of the woods because they don't need yet another hit just like we don't down here. In all honesty though, as long as that thing is out in the gulf I would not let your guard down. Even though the models are in fairly close agreement nothing is written in stone and anything is still possible. I don't trust those things and I would still be keeping an eye on it if I were you. It is better to err on the side of being cautious.
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
Quote:
Why did they do a Hurricane watch for such a small area? You'd think it would extend all the way to like Destin, FL or something.
I suspect they did that because of evacuation difficulties with the NO area.
From the 11am discussion:
"THE NEW FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ALONG THE COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT."
--RC
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
the se part of louisiana sticks out into the gulf some. the watches were issued based on hurricane force winds possibly reaching the area in 36 hrs or so... early monday as the storm gets closer. models are fairly well clustered, with the consensus track being near to just east of new orleans.... they say in the disco that watches will probably stretch further up the coast as the hurricane gets closer.
HF 1510z27august
|
KornR
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 8
Loc: High Springs, Fl.
|
|
We live in North Florida, near to Lake City. We are still watching this storm closely. It's true that is not doing what's been predicted, and I don't know if I completely trust the models, even though all of them have it headed straight for NO. NO doesn't need anything like this. It would be decimated. I don't want it here either, but NO and Pensacola areas especially can't take a Cat4.
--------------------
"Honey, was that the cat that just flew past the window?"
|
Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
Given some of the recent trends this morning, the following is a repeated post from the previous thread:
A reminder that is not a chat room and that one-line posts are discouraged. Also, do some homework before you ask a question. The answers to some of the questions being asked are readily available at the site - there is even a link at the bottom left to the . The Rules for the site are available in the banner at the top of the page - read them! Here is an excerpt:
Before you post: Before posting, please ask yourself the following question: "Am I making a post which is informative, or interesting or adds to thoughtful discussion on any level? If is a reply, does it offer any significant advice or help contribute to the conversation in any fashion?" If you can answer "yes" to this, then please post. If you cannot, then refrain from posting.
Low Content Posts: Please do not make single line posts containing no content (ie, "Thanks!" "Great Post" "Cool!", "I agree", or something else completely void of meaning). Or general cheerleading, for example, if you think someone did a good job and have nothing else to add send them a PM, it works better for this. We appreciate the thanks, but otherwise posts like these just litter up the forums. Remember, is not a Chat Room - it is a Niche topic-oriented site, so please attempt to stay 'on topic' by placing your posts in the proper Forum. Main page articles are usually focused on one particular topic, the other forums are open to use as well and are moderated less strictly.
Deparment of Redundancy Department: If a poster continually makes the same post, or nearly the same post repeatedly on the same point, it will likely be put in the graveyard and the poster be put on timed poster probation.
Respect the Mods: The moderators are here to keep the forum function of the site safe, sane, and secure. Please do not harass or intentionally annoy the mods. If they ask you to do something, please do it. If you do not like the mods or the moderation here, then feel free to not post here. If you have an issue with a mod, email cfhc@flhurricane.com or pm an Administrator
Harass and Sass: If somebody is harassing you on the forums then discuss it with them over PM or email before contacting a mod about it. Someone who simply disagrees with you does not constitute harassment. Please do not post others' personal information (phone number, addresses, emails, etc.). Try to stay out of other peoples' personal lives as well. Keep in mind there's a good distinction between the Internet and real life.
The site is going to get rather busy for the next 4 or 5 days. You can help with the bandwidth issue (and help to keep the site from crashing) by reducing the number of un-necessary one liners.
Thanks,
ED
|
pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
|
|
Hurricane watches will be shifted east on the next full advisory..the reason for the watches in LA is due to evacuation time and that the center could reach this area in 36 hours (or at least effects)..remember most of this area juts way into the gulf, and thus would be impacted first no matter where a north GOM landfall takes place..as for Pensacola..no it is not out of the woods!!! don't think that..this track forecast is nearly identical to ..and models are starting to shift east..remember a Mobile Bay landfall is just about the worst case for Pensacola..especially surge..don't look at the line, look at the cone..play it safe
--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
|
SC Bill
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 24
Loc: South Carolina
|
|
I am confused, which is not unusual. The 11:00 discussion says in part "THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD
CAUSE TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HR ", and goes on to say later in the discussion: "THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...CALLING FOR
LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN 48-60 HR."
Does this not seem contradictory, or at least signal a lack of confidence in the forecast track?? I mean, if the turn is going to take place sometime in the next 72 hours, how can landfall be in 48-60 hours at a point that required the turn?
NHC has been amazingly "on" this year, and this is probably just some "averaging" issue I don't understand, but I would appreciate a clue as to how these two statements can both be true.
Thanks!
|
SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
|
|
I think the has been as confused as we are. I would not be surprised if their track is shifted a little to the East this afternoon.
Noone should be focusing on the line. Right now, 's TS force winds extend 150 miles from the Center and Hurricane force winds extend 40 miles. If the thing hits the AL/MS line Pensacola gets a LOT of rain and some very gusty winds. If it hits Mobile Bay we are screwed. Can't focus on the line because these Hurricanes are hard to predict. Remember and both hit East of the 's line.
--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
|
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
|
|
No. Until this hurricane has either gone inland to Texas or has shriveled up to a thunderstorm, you should be aware of the location of this storm and be prepared for rain, and breezes. But, do not start evacuations until the local emergency management tells you to.(I am not being funny or sarcastic) The gulf has sprung surprises on a lot of people before. Ask the people in Port Charlotte Florida.
--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
No. Until this hurricane has either gone inland to Texas or has shriveled up to a thunderstorm, you should be aware of the location of this storm and be prepared for rain, and breezes. But, do not start evacuations until the local emergency management tells you to.(I am not being funny or sarcastic) The gulf has sprung surprises on a lot of people before. Ask the people in Port Charlotte Florida.
If you feel like you're not safe, I would recommend making evacuation plans now - local EM people MAY not have time to issue evac orders. That happened with and with a storm (forget the name) that hit Biloxi fairly recently, too. I still expect the forecast track to change at least three times in the next three days.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
|
|
Here is a link to NOAA Weather Radio KHB43 out of New Orleans.
http://www.nola.com/weather/radio/?/weather/radio/content.ssf/weather
--------------------
"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
|
Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
|
|
WV really looks like it's trying to turn. It might be an artifact of the , however.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
If you look at the GOM version of this... it kind of gives a feel for the overall potential motion, which now seems more east of the forecast... Am I wishcasting, or actually seeing something?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill
|
susieq
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 49
Loc: Panhandle
|
|
Is some kind of shear thing happening here? In the last couple of frames it looks like there are north/south lines in the northern part of the storm. Any ideas?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
--------------------
Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
If you look at the GOM version of this... it kind of gives a feel for the overall potential motion, which now seems more east of the forecast... Am I wishcasting, or actually seeing something?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
I've been staring at that loop til I was blue in the gills. First, it has not updated for me - I keep refreshing but the latest imaging is 14:45, which is rather old now. Second, I think you're seeing the same thing I am - a very gradual, but very distinct... turn. Potentially promising for points west of N.O. Potentially devastating for points east. Too early to tell if it is going to continue.
Updated to reply to susieq: It's dry air I think (the 15:15 image loaded for me finally).
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sat Aug 27 2005 04:09 PM)
|
Trekman
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 32
Loc: Fort Walton Beach FL
|
|
It looked to me (a stark amateur) that the highest cloud tops had left the eye and had extended west, with some seeming to go towards the north. I dont feel so foolish having only taken down one set of window boards after .
--------------------
Went though: Erin ('95), Opal ('95), Danny ('97), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Dennis ('05)
Emergency Administration and Management program at Northwest Florida State College
|
susieq
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 49
Loc: Panhandle
|
|
This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
--------------------
Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan
|
MissouriHurricane2008
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 14
Loc: Missouri, USA
|
|
 Katrinas track takes it right in to the New Orleans area, that is not a good sign, with a huge lake on one side and Mississippi River on the other. Throw storm surge and 20 inches of rain on top of that we could have a disaster. Prepare Now
|
Darron&Amber
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 2
Loc: Louisiana
|
|
My husband has been living in SE Louisiana for 35 years, and this Hurricane got him worried.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
