Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE
INCREASED TO 100 KT... MAKING A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.
THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT
KATRINA HAS GROWN IN SIZE... WHICH PERHAPS EXPLAINS WHY THE MAXIMUM
WINDS HAVE NOT YET CAUGHT UP TO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE INITIAL
AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY
I guess satellites can be deceiving because the water vapor shows a tighter circulation to me.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 165 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
So IF were to take a straight line for the mouth of the MS River.
435 miles divided by 7mph=62 hours til landfall. That's still looking like Monday Noon.
For the Eye to reach land! Wind and rain will precede the Eye by many hours
Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 27 2005 05:29 AM)
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Margie
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I had insomnia, called my brother who was on night shift, and stayed up to read the 5am discussion.
Was surprised to see that 945mb reading. So just as soon as the eyewall was closed, this thing started to take off.
The discussion had good reasoning for going to Cat 3 and with 945mb it is hard to imagine the winds not catching up.
Do you think there was an during the recent intensification, or is it just that the eye is clearing out now that the eyewall is closed, and that is why it appears larger?
Movement seems straight W now. No big wobbles like before so maybe intensification is done for now.
Next recon ought to report prior to the 11am and then the 3 hour fixes will have started. So if this thing keeps cooking I guess we'll be seeing something very impressive by then. It is hard to know how far to guess on intensity because anything seems possible. I guess I could say that when I wake up tomorrow and looked at the 11am (and at this point I don't know how I'm going to be able to get up much earlier than that!), would I even be surprised to see maybe 925mb? That seems outlandish, but with this thing finally in position to intensify as much as it is capable of, who knows.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
So IF were to take a straight line for the mouth of the MS River.
435 miles divided by 7mph=62 hours til landfall. That's still looking like Monday Noon.
For the Eye to reach land! Wind and rain will precede the Eye by many hours
Do you think it's going to move on a straight line in that direction starting now?  I think Monday evening/Tuesday morning is more likely but it could pick up speed - forward speed that is.
Edit:: latest water vapor shows some moisture forming well NW of but well east of the "feeder band" to 's west. it's been sporadic but if it ever becomes consistent it might be a sign of the trough digging in to push northward?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sat Aug 27 2005 05:41 AM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I
Next recon ought to report prior to the 11am and then the 3 hour fixes will have started. So if this thing keeps cooking I guess we'll be seeing something very impressive by then. It is hard to know how far to guess on intensity because anything seems possible. I guess I could say that when I wake up tomorrow and looked at the 11am (and at this point I don't know how I'm going to be able to get up much earlier than that!), would I even be surprised to see maybe 925mb? That seems outlandish, but with this thing finally in position to intensify as much as it is capable of, who knows.
That sounds reasonable to me. Going back to bed, I mean! LOL
IF the current trend continues - a big if - could be approaching cat 4 within 12 hours I fear. Next recon, I expect pressure to be 925-930 and continuing to drop.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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No that was purely hypothetical.
I just checked the GOM buoys all the way to Corpus Christi, TX. They are All showing a non-diurnal drop in pressure. Beginning at around 02Z last night.
Now these are surface pressures, and have nothing to do with the steering currents. Where's a MET?
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Hugh
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
No that was purely hypothetical.
I just checked the GOM buoys all the way to Corpus Christi, TX. They are All showing a non-diurnal drop in pressure. Beginning at around 02Z last night.
Now these are surface pressures, and have nothing to do with the steering currents. Where's a MET?
How much is the pressure dropping out that far? I suspect the METs are catching some Zs in preparation for a heck of a weekend.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Buoy 42002. At 25.17 N 94.42 W
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/images/Maps/WestGulf.jpg
Is showing a 4.3mb pressure drop. compared to 24 and 48 hours ago at the same time.
It's 548nm at 277degrees from the 5 AM EDT Position.
I saw a 106kt wind speed in the last hour...This is Not looking good!
And I think I see a 940mb? reading in one of the dropsonde reports.
Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 27 2005 06:18 AM)
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danielw
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New Vortex. 0932Z
That 940mb reading was correct!
Closed wall at 10 nm diameter.
Max Flt Lvl Wind 104kt NE Quad (earlier at 0708Z)
Note**SMALL HAIL SE EYEWALL (Usually a Bad Sign, Seen In -'05)
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Steve H1
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Still looks she's headed for NO according to the models. Question is will the ridge break down? she seems to have slowed her forward motion this morning. Will she begin the north turn today or meander a bit. Waiting for 12Z model runs to check out any changes, if any. In the meantime, 90L is getting better organized and is at a lower latitude then 97L. Check out the wave about to exit Africa. This will be our next invest. Cheers!!
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Terra
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Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Tiny jog to the south in a couple of the last frames of the IR... I know jogs don't indicate motion, but as south as has wanted to go, it's worth thinking about. I was not surprised to see the slighly westward shift to the track... however, it was not as large as I was hoping for, probably because motion was due west from 2am-5am. Again, the longer the west motion, the later the turn, the more west the track will shift. As things stand right now, I expect NO to turn into total chaos. The annoying part is I really don't want to evacuate, but pressure from family will encourage this behavior. If things are going to change, they better do so quickly to prevent people in NO (my mom included) from going psycho.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Tiny jog to the south in a couple of the last frames of the IR... I know jogs don't indicate motion, but as south as has wanted to go, it's worth thinking about. I was not surprised to see the slighly westward shift to the track... however, it was not as large as I was hoping for, probably because motion was due west from 2am-5am. Again, the longer the west motion, the later the turn, the more west the track will shift. As things stand right now, I expect NO to turn into total chaos. The annoying part is I really don't want to evacuate, but pressure from family will encourage this behavior. If things are going to change, they better do so quickly to prevent people in NO (my mom included) from going psycho.
If people in N.O. don't LEAVE now... they won't be able to get out in time, I'm afraid. The time for going psycho if you live there was about 12 hours ago. By the time makes her move - if that's where it decides to go - it will be too late to do anything but pray really hard, I'm afraid.
Having said that, it's too early to say that will even effect N.O.
Update: Just looked at the model runs - some of which have been updated. They are now tightening around or just to the east of New Orleans. It just seems to be getting worse for the Louisiana delta.
Also see a tiny northward jog in the last two or three images on the WV loop, before that it was a south jog so that is a wash. The eye has filled in, probably the result of EWR, so when it comes back will likely strengthen. Weather channel is saying 940 pressure but the recon I just read says 942 - but is labelled "Preliminary!"
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sat Aug 27 2005 07:46 AM)
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VG
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Tampa Bay, FL
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#98 Published Friday August 26, 2005 at 7:00 am EDT
http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
(off topic material removed)
At the 5:00 am EDT advisory Hurricane has become a CAT 3 115 mph hurricane. She is now easing onto a west heading or 265 deg.
I will elaborate in greater detail later this morning but I still do not buy the continued westward TPC track and a landfall on New Orleans.
I am shifting my landfall window back a little eastward and widening it a bit too to between Mobile, AL and Fort Walton Beach, FL with a bulls eye on Gulf Breeze, FL. Once again I never chase model changes, live by the model die by the model.
I still think the easier forecast of the two is intensity. With very warm Gulf Of Mexico water temperature including the loop current ahead and as very little wind shear is forecasted, could easily reach a strong CAT 4 before landfall. But she could weaken back to a CAT 3 after leaving the loop current and also due to increased wind shear, prior to landfall, much like CAT 4 Opal did in 1995.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 27 2005 10:22 AM)
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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I agree i dont see a cat 4 at landfall.All things point to this getting up to a 4 then right before landfall the air getting sucked out of her by shear.I hope its enough to bring her down to a 2 but i dont see her being a 4 at landfall due to speed and the shear that is suppose to be present.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I am shifting my landfall window back a little eastward and widening it a bit too to between Mobile, AL and Fort Walton Beach, FL with a bulls eye on Gulf Breeze, FL. Once again I never chase model changes, live by the model die by the model.
I still think the easier forecast of the two is intensity. With very warm Gulf Of Mexico water temperature including the loop current ahead and as very little wind shear is forecasted, could easily reach a strong CAT 4 before landfall. But she could weaken back to a CAT 3 after leaving the loop current and also due to increased wind shear, prior to landfall, much like CAT 4 Opal did in 1995.
Do you just hate me or something? :P
What is your reasoning for punishng me thusly? (I live north of FWB).
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Do you just hate me or something? :P
What is your reasoning for punishng me thusly? (I live north of FWB).
ETA to Ralph: Where do you see landfall happening? If it turned toward me, I think weakening is inevitable due to shear and the fact that every storm has weakened.
Edited by MikeC (Sat Aug 27 2005 08:31 AM)
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TDW
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Mobile, AL
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It seems that most of the recent Northen GOM storms have made a slight jog NE just before landfall. That's saved us here in Mobile, but may hurt us this tme.
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"It's time to see the world
It's time to kiss a girl
It's time to cross the wild meridian"
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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If it were me in N.O.,I would leave.They say N.O. is the city that never should have been built.I had her as a cat 1,can't even imagin how bad it will be as a 4.Good luck to all.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Quote:
Do you just hate me or something? :P
What is your reasoning for punishng me thusly? (I live north of FWB).
Personally i see this going back to mobile area and only a 3 when it gets to shore and a low 3 due to shear but again i just think that by looking at the models and trends and also the shear that is to be present and history with storms that like to lose it right beofre landfall there.
Have a good day off for the day.
Edited by MikeC (Sat Aug 27 2005 08:36 AM)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Per the IR floater she hit the first forecast point head on... gut wretching thing looking at the forecast points on this loop down the road....esp for NO... I'll be 57 miles east of its projected landfall point..... It that were guaranteed in writing I would ride it out... but just the potential for a deviation to the east is not an acceptable risk for me attm for a storm with its projected intensity... still plenty of time... to prepare, worry, monitor, evacuate, and pray....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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