Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins on June 1st, 2022. Normal Tropical Weather Outlooks Resume May 15th.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 132 (Nicholas) , Major: 147 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1201 (Michael) Major: 1201 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | >> (show all)
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5071 - Mon Sep 23 2002 08:35 PM

Tropical Storm Isidore spent most of the day completing a cyclonic wobble over the Yucatan but in the past couple of hours he hints at a northeast movement. The overall cloud structure has changed from an east-west orientation to a north-south orientation - which tells me that an eventual movement to the north may slowly get underway. The convective core is long gone and should the cyclone finally get back into the Gulf - and I think that it will - it will take awhile for that core to rebuild. Remember, over water the storm develops the CDO as it grows in intensity. Low pressure doesn't mean instant success - it just means that the system has a better chance of success in the rebuilding process. Isidore may only grow to a shadow of his former self, especially if he starts to speed up, but Cat II certainly seems reasonable. Fast moving tropical cyclones seldom intensify much.

Where will Isidore go? Who knows! Probably further east than originally projected - the atmosphere has changed a bit since Izzy first made landfall. Speaking of projections, the landfall certainly wasn't (except for a crazy looking GFDL run which we all ignored). My point is that the models are not the gospel - they certainly missed the southward movement - use them cautiously and listen closely to your local met office or your local broadcast met that you trust (unsolicited plug for Greg and Jason ) Why hasn't Isidore moved? Easy - zero steering currents. The total circulation envelope of the cyclone is so huge that the only current currents (ah, what a double!) are the cyclones' circulation itself. If it's own upper air pattern alters enough it will likely start an eventual movement to the north - if not, well tropical cyclones do meet their demise over land.

Tropical Storm Lili - finally! Actually I've had this system at tropical storm strength since about 2pm yesterday afternoon. NHC may have been a little too cautious with this system. Satellite imagery said 'TS', and since a TD was already underway, you can't always wait on an aircraft report - but enough of that. From a meteorological perspective Lili looks like she has gotten her act together. What scares me is that my 72 hour position and the NHC 72hr position match - exactly! St Lucia is next in her sights (one of my favorite Caribbean islands - worth going to if you get a chance).

Where will Lili go? So far, this one is a lot easier than Isidore. Clips Haiti - crosses Cuba - pay attention in south Florida. If it moves further west, then Jamaica could get hit again - they sure don't need that - crosses western Cuba - pay attention in southwest Florida. Expect Lili to reach hurricane strength within 24 hours, and nothing much to weaken it until it hits Cuba. Right now it looks like Puerto Rico is okay, but that does not mean to ignore it. This is a bit of a stretch (timewise), but probably a Sunday event for Florida - more track details later on in the Storm Forum. Keep in mind that Kyle is part of the steering problem. As he slowly intensifies and drifts southwestward, his circulation is helping to reinforce the ridge to his southwest - not much, but a little.



If you live along the Gulf coast or the Southeast coast, keep your eyes on this dynamic duo.

Cancun, Mexico Radar

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City Weather Audio Broadcast Network - Live Audio from Jim Williams and Barometer Bob , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.

- [ Ed Dunham ]

Edited by MikeC (Mon Sep 23 2002 11:04 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
mp3reed
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 16
Loc: Abilene, Texas USA
Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5072 - Mon Sep 23 2002 08:42 PM

Very thorough SITREP.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5073 - Mon Sep 23 2002 08:59 PM

I really am having a hard time locating the circulation center of Lili. Dvorak loops and IR loops show strong convection but i have trouble seeing the low level turning. Seems to me she is getting lifted NW. This could, of course be that she is a small closed ow now. Anyone know the exact location. Izzy getting off Yucatan soon, should follow the prescribed track. GFDL has a scary scenario for cuba and Florida as well as Haiti. One rule of thumb i stick to usually. WHere the storm is shown in the models to go, is where it won't. So I feel safe here in East Central Florida....until further notice. Fare thee well on the Northern Gulf Coast!!! God be with you!! Cheers!! Steve H.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5074 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:01 PM

My estimate is about 310-330 motion right now....looks like it is really beginning a move...

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5075 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:10 PM

Jason are u talking about Izzy? It needs to move pretty soon if it wants to do any more then just die.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5076 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:26 PM

Looking at the latest infra & Wv loops it appears that Lili is moving north, and so is Izzy. What do you think that will do for the forcast of Lili? East Coast maybe??

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Latest model runs... OH JOY
      #5077 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:33 PM

Models has shifted eastward.... as Jason predicted...

Basically all four models from the NHC have Izzy off the mouth of the MS river in 48 hours.... And guess what, some are predicting a MS coast impact "CAN YOU IMAGINE THAT" and from a Cat 1

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/02092400

on a related note, I am selling the Biloxi back bay bridge this weekend... any and all offers will be considered...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Latest model runs... OH JOY
      #5078 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:36 PM

are there any graphics for the new model runs?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Latest model runs... OH JOY
      #5079 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:41 PM

I cant get the loops to work can someone tell me if izzy is starting or is gonna start making a definitve move to the north or wherever.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5080 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:41 PM

isidore.. not moving much as far as i can tell. i'd still call it quasi stationary. isidore didnt pick the greatest place in the world to stall, for its own sake. another few hours without movement and the center may try to reform. of course there is still plenty to this thing at the mid levels right now and that would be a difficult process.
lili.. youre having a hard time tracking it because the center is outrunning the convection, has been since late this morning. i'd put the center around 63.5w right now. it's trying its damndest to commit suicide. maybe another center will form back under the convection.. as seemed to happen yesterday. i'm still not sold on its survival.
HF 0142z24september


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Latest model runs... OH JOY
      #5081 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:43 PM

They show Lili getting tangled up with Haiti/DR and starting to slow.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5082 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:45 PM

I just got through watching the IR loop and I couldn't detect any real movement...

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: Latest model runs... OH JOY
      #5083 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:45 PM

Frank
I will give you a $.99 Checkers Chicken Sandwich and all the notes to my Mass Media Research Test next Tuesday (dealing with Quantitative and Qualitative research) and one of my (5) 2 liters of Moubtain Dew from my Izzy supplies for that bridge..

let me know! good bridges are hard to come by!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Latest model runs... OH JOY
      #5084 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:48 PM

Justin,

I'm not sure how recent these plots are, or whether they reflect the data everyone's talking about, but it's there for you to check out:

Izzy Model Plots

Jay

--------------------
Londovir


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Latest model runs... OH JOY
      #5085 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:49 PM

Sold to the highest bidder...... one large bay bridge.... hey, I'll throw in some models runs with it just to sweeten the deal..

Troy, just give me the chicken sandwich and Mountain Dew... you can keep the notes... My college days are over......



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5086 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:52 PM

IZZY LOOKS TO BE TRYING TO FEED HIM SELF COULD BE VERY CLOSE TO THE GULF I THINK IT WONT TAKE MUCH WHEN HE DOES TO TAKE OFF AND COULD GET STRONG FAST

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: Latest model runs... OH JOY
      #5087 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:52 PM

Frank,
Sounds like a deal. Keep the model runs though.
Now a model on a trampoline, thats a different story!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: Latest model runs... OH JOY
      #5088 - Mon Sep 23 2002 10:09 PM

HF
a few hours ago I would have agreed with you on Lili. But, I think either a) the LLC has slowed and finally allowed the upper circulation to catch up or b) a new LLC has formed under the mass of convection and upper circ.

On the lasted up close loop i cant make out the circulation at
63.5. What looks like the complete syatem at about 61.5 or so seems to have impressive outflow. Of course recon will paint a more precise picture. When is recon heading there? anyone now?

Troy


Edited by troy2 (Mon Sep 23 2002 10:13 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rickinmobile
Unregistered




back in the bath before sunrise
      #5089 - Mon Sep 23 2002 10:19 PM

cat 3-4 at landfall....

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: back in the bath before sunrise
      #5090 - Mon Sep 23 2002 10:22 PM

rick when is izzy gonna come back over water? an what about us folks in pensacola what do u have to say?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 4 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: ****
Topic views: 112555

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center