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Archives 2000s >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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Anonymous
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Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5091 - Mon Sep 23 2002 10:25 PM

COULD HAPPEN THIS STORM IS SO BIG WHEN WILL IT START THE MOVE IF IT STAYS STILL ALL NIGHT HE WILL DIE HE BEST GET MOVING

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rick in mobile
Unregistered




already moving, unless I am seeing things...
      #5092 - Mon Sep 23 2002 10:32 PM

Isidore has moved to the northeast..just as shown....slightly...no longer gonna sit there...starting it's move. I will hang here for another three hours, but IZZY is fixin to get it going. Only drawback is the forward speed...if it gets to going too fast...the upper anti-cyclonic ridge will not keep up...and it could end up a cat 2 or so...however, if the northern movement is rather slow...say 12 mph or so...then it could explode...plenty of time and gulf of mexico to make it happen. In fact..when considering the POTENTIAL...all things are there for this storm to re-intensify...
I will post after two more 1/2 hour loops...and see if the shift to the nw is real. if it is...get ready...

IT'S PARTY TIME!


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DopplerGal
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 5
Loc: S. E. Alabama
Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5093 - Mon Sep 23 2002 10:38 PM

Was just wondering, historically speaking.........how does Izzy compare to other hurricanes from a size perspective. Not intensity, but wind radius?

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Floridacane
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: already moving, unless I am seeing things...
      #5094 - Mon Sep 23 2002 10:39 PM

It looks like a more north north-west movement to me, but VERY slow.
I'm perplexed by Izzy, he has been very fun to watch, as are all hurricanes. Lili still looks due west in this water vapor image. Here's the latest water vapor, anyone care to guess on the next advisories...?

--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori


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Floridacane
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: already moving, unless I am seeing things...
      #5095 - Mon Sep 23 2002 10:41 PM

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
Sorry, here's the water vapor image I forgot to paste on last post

--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori


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Anonymous
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Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5096 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:06 PM

well i tried to get in the chat room at hurricane hollow and it didnt load in. i used my user name and email, but when i clicked on nothing happens. Anyone else have this trouble? scottsvb

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Floridacane
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5097 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:09 PM

Scott, I also had trouble. It locked up on me twice. 3rd time was a charm, but there are so many people in there it's very difficult to keep up with everyone typing so darn fast.

--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori


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Houstontracker
Unregistered




Re: already moving, unless I am seeing things...
      #5098 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:14 PM

I have to disagree with the TPC's 10pm position. I could be wrong, but I think they are too far east. Take a look at

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

and go to the Thermal Infrared Floater #1 GOES8. The blue shaded clouds seem to be rotating around a point near 20.4n/89.8w. this is where I believe the center is moving slowly wnw. If you slow the loop down, this become a little more evident.

If the center is where the TPC put it 10pm, then why are the clouds moving north on the west side of their center?


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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: already moving, unless I am seeing things...
      #5099 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:27 PM

HoustonTracker
I see what you are saying. I think it may be a woble more to the west. that being said, that wobble puts it that much closer to being back over water.

Cool link. I had that page bookmarked but lost it somehow. Glad you posted it

I had posted just before the new news item appeared a question re: what the chances are of a storm over land and close to the water as Izzy is trying to reform its center back over the water.
anyone have any thoughts on that??


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Floridacane
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: already moving, unless I am seeing things...
      #5100 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:28 PM

I just might have to agree with you. Good loop image. I don't think anyone at the NHC has any hair left on their heads following this storm, which I think I'll rename him, Isidork... I'm tired, gimme a break

--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori


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Kimmie at home
Unregistered




Re: already moving, unless I am seeing things...
      #5101 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:28 PM

Houston, I noticed the same thing. Looks like it is moving north, northwest. I wonder what we will find in the morning? I doubt Izzy is done!

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ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
My Two Cents Worth!
      #5102 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:39 PM

Take a look at the link below. It looks to me like Izzy is trying to take a dip SW. Tell me what you see.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: already moving, unless I am seeing things...
      #5103 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:42 PM

Troy2:
Well I guess that it has happened before, but I don't really have a good answer. This storm has such a large circulation envelope that I just can't imagine how it could spin up a secondary center. You can often see secondary centers in weak developing storms, but thats with storms which are over water.
ED


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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: My Two Cents Worth!
      #5104 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:44 PM

sure looks that way, at first.

I think its the convection rotating around the center and the last frame shows it on the SW side of that center.
Wondering what Izzy will do when its back over water. Still a nice circulation and a wide one at that.


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: My Two Cents Worth!
      #5105 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:48 PM

NHC said hurricane watches may be needed tomorrow can someone please tell me were they might issue it from. I am guessin Houma to maybe Destin

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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
My question
      #5106 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:48 PM

thanks Ed. I didn think it would reform just because of how pronounced the center was.

well its bedtime...Exam at 8am.


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: My question
      #5107 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:51 PM

Hurricane Watches where can someone please give me a guess maybe no school tomorrow in Pensacola???

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: My Two Cents Worth!
      #5108 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:51 PM

It will strongly depend on the 00Z and 12Z AVn runs, and if there is any further eastward drift in the track...I like Houma, but if the AVN continues to drift east, then the watch may extend to Apalachicola.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Lili Lifting Up?
      #5109 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:03 AM

Just looked at the IR loop for Lili and it looks like Lili is hauling some good speed towards the NW, say maybe 300 by my guess. Almost beginning to think PR might be in trouble, like the BAMD model was thinking on the latest run. If so, Kyle could have something to say about that too.

Starting to look interesting. If I could indulge my complete and total lack of weather knowledge -- looking at the water vapor loops, looks like there is a huge wave of dry air sweeping down from NY to TX. Could this, if it pushes off the coast, be enough of an event to skirt Lili off and away to the NE if they met? I know Kyle is still an unknown in this, but I'm just wondering if that could affect Lili like that....

Jay

--------------------
Londovir


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: My Two Cents Worth!
      #5110 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:06 AM

thanks jason i enjoy reading your post an all itsinfo i am really learning alot. do u think there may be a continued eastward drift in the models? seems like a dumb question sorry just wondering

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