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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered




hmm...
      #5111 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:07 AM

i was wrong about how far west of its convection lili is, but at least not about it being there. think the 60mph winds are a little generous. important change in the advisory was forward speed.. slowed to 17mph. it was going 23 this morning. i'm starting to lose my doubts about it's survival.. but still think the NHC track is too strong and too far north.
isidork (like the rename choice) is still doing what it does best.. nothing. ive been hearing its going this way, or starting to go that way.. all day. after i kept predicting it to move offshore last night and it just sat on its little piece of yucatan real estate in defiance.. ive decided not to make any assumptions until i see it really move. by this i mean twenty miles in one direction. that would be something at this point. will not be surprised if i wake up tomorrow and find that it has failed to do so. think the NHC track is too fast and intensity is too low.. as i think the storm will regenerate very quickly once offshore. if isidore isnt offshore by tomorrow afternoon the louisiana landfall is off, it will definitely go further east.
kyle, the much neglected fish spinner.. is if nothing else going to have a very interesting track. in about five days its westward steering flow will weaken, and it will probably do another loop while the ridge rebuilds. it is worth noting that long range modeling has ridging in the western atlantic generally holding.. so we could be still talking about kyle next week.
elsewhere.. have the nagging suspicion that something else will try to develop from the cape verdes. also still keeping an eye east of the bahamas as convection there is in a weaker shearing environment.
HF 0409z24september


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wxman007
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Re: My Two Cents Worth!
      #5112 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:08 AM

In a word?

Yes.

However, if Izzy doesn't get back over water soon, it might not matter...



--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Anonymous
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Re: My Two Cents Worth!
      #5113 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:16 AM

yeah i agree with u it needs to do something soon at least move an not sit in one spot. what do u think the chances are if the storm doesnt move in the next 12 hours or so that it will die. i dont really know what to expect if that were to happen????

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Floridacane
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: My question
      #5114 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:20 AM

Hey Pensacola, get your school clothes ready for the am, and set your alarm clock.

--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori


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bsnyder
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 18
Re:
      #5115 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:27 AM

Just got home from the game and I see nothing much has changed with Izzy.....but how 'bout them Bucs?

Derrick Brooks - he's the man!


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scottsvb
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Posts: 1184
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Re: My Two Cents Worth!
      #5116 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:31 AM

ALRIGHT CURRENTLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ISADORE HAS BEEN MOVING 50' OR A NE MOTION AS THE CONVECTION IS SLOWLY INCREASING ON THE W AND SW SIDE OF THE LLC.
I HAVENT REALLY POSTED ANY PERDICTIONS IN WHERE THIS WILL END UP OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS CAUSE I WANTED TO SEE WHERE HIS SW TURN WILL GO AND HOW LONG HE WILL BE THERE. IT DID HAPPEN ALITTLE QUICKER THEN WHAT THE MODELS WERE FORCASTING BUT GENERALLY THEY ALL DID SEE A SW TURN.
ILL KEEP THIS REAL BRIEF SINCE MOST OF YA ARE IN BED WHICH I SHOULD BE NOW,.ANYWAYS MY LAST POST 36HRS BACK SAID HE WILL WEAKEN AND COULD MOVE NNE IN TIME THEN BACK MORE TO THE NE BUT I DIDNT SAY FORSURE THIS WOULD HAPPEN AS I EXPECTED HIM TO REMAIN WELL S OF THE TROUGH. DUE TO THOUGH THE EARLY TURN AND STAYING EAST THE FL AREA SHOULD HAVE A GREATER CONCERN. I AGREE WITH FELLOW JASON ON A NNE MOTION WITH SOME WOBBLES TO THE LEFT OR RIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, A GENERAL TURN TO THE NE N OF 28' WILL PUT AREAS OF WAY NORTH OF TAMPA TO AS FAR WEST AS NEW ORLEANS IN THE WATCH AREA, THIS DOESNT MEAN THOUGH THIS WHOLE AREA WILL HAVEN HURRICANE WATCHES UP , JUST THAT THEY SHOULD MONITURE THE SYSTEM,. NOW AS OF WHERE HE COMES OFF THE COAST AND DIRECTION WILL DETERMINE WATCHES PROBABLY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT OR WEDS MORNING. CURRENTLY A TROUGH TO ITS N AND RIDGE BUILDING TO THE EAST WILL CAUSE A S AND SSW FLOW TO MOVE HIM N OR NNE. LATER A BEND TO THE RIGHT WILL BE AS HE RUNS ALONG THE TROUGH AND INTO THE SE US. CURRENT EXACT LANDFALL ISNT KNOWN YET BUT I SAY FROM MOBILE TO CEDAR KEY, BUT I WONT KNOW FORSURE LIKE ANYONE UNTIL 24HRS BEFORE LANDFALL. FROM NOW TILL 12PM TUESDAY WHERE HE ENTERS THE GULF COULD SHOW THE DIRECTION HE WILL GO. THATS IT FOR NOW, SCOTTSVB


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Londovir
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Posts: 112
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Re: My Two Cents Worth!
      #5117 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:37 AM

Local weathermen on our channels down here (Channel 28 for one) pretty much just signed off on BOTH Izzy and Lili. Said, and I quote, "0, zip, zilch risk to Florida from Isidore." As for Lili, basically said minimal Cat 1, Haiti or DR, recurve up and away to the NE. Incredible. And you wonder why no one takes these storms as seriously as they should....

Jay

--------------------
Londovir


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Anonymous
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Re: My Two Cents Worth!
      #5118 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:43 AM

maybe i will have school tomorrow but maybe wednesday an thursday an friday will be different. NHC says watches could be issued an im guessin pensacola will be in or near it so maybe i'll stay home an prepare.

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
The 00z AVN...
      #5119 - Tue Sep 24 2002 01:07 AM

Looking at the 1st 48 hrs of it while waiting on the rest...

MUCH slower...at hour 48 (7 pm CDT Wednesday nite) still well offshore south of N.O. Strengthening too...No sign of any west vector beyond about 24 hrs...almost due north and slower...anxiously awaitng the later periods to see if there is a east job towards the 48-72 hr time frame.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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wxman007
Meteorologist


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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: The 00z AVN...
      #5120 - Tue Sep 24 2002 01:15 AM

Well...maybe not that much....

Hour 54 accelerates it...with landfall just after 60hrs (12z Thur...7 AM local) just east of Houma, LA...with no sign of an eastward jog...interesting..i figured there would be one....



--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Frank P
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Jason
      #5121 - Tue Sep 24 2002 01:34 AM

Sorry I missed your IM as I went and got a couple hours of shut eye... Looking at the latest IR I think I could detect the center at 20.9N adn 89.2W... which would indicate a slow northernly drift... but I also could be hallunicating as well...

Have you been able to detect any movement or am I just delusional?


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Frank P
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NHC confirmed the northerly motion
      #5122 - Tue Sep 24 2002 01:50 AM

Well at least I had the latitude right on the money at 20.9.... this is the most it has moved in a long time...... finally....

Hey, I also posted early yesterday that the system would be off the pensula by early tues morning and that looks like a possiblity... now if it hits just west of NO... then I'll be on a roll... yahoo

You can also see the leading edge of the outer rain bands starting to move north towards the MS/LA coast


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5123 - Tue Sep 24 2002 03:16 AM

IZZY GOING SOUTH AGAIN GOOD BY IZZY HE IS NOT COMING BACK ITS BEEN THAT KIND OF YEAR GOOD NIGHT AND SEE WHEN NEXT STORM MOVES IN

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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5124 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:05 AM

Looks like Izzy is back over water now, should make for an interesting morning. Take a look at the 645uc IR frame of Kyle. That has to be one of the prettiest shots I've seen of a storm in a long time. Very pretty bands. Looks like kyle really has his act together. Should be VERY pretty once that last piece of kyle's pie gets filled in. Lets not forget my friend Lili. I been going on about her now for 3 days. Could be a hurricane tonight maybe? If she hits the Florida before Izzy or if Izzy doesn't at all I will be offering combo meals of crow.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




4am update out...
      #5125 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:47 AM

Isidore is moving NW and should make landfall in approximately 48 hours. This tells me that today and tomorrow will likely be the worst weather on the Gulf. 48 hours puts it just south of Terrebonne Parish as a Cat 1. Pressure is 985. I see two factors that will determine if he can get better organized: 1) eventual forward speed; 2) whether or not an anti-cyclonic/upper high develops overtop of Isidore. Lyons made one good point yesterday and that was that Iz had become a broad cyclone and lost some of it's upper support as it just sat and spun. Outer bands are now on the Coast of LA south of N.O. There is some fringe rain rotating west near Pensacola. I don't see this as a major event at this point. Hopefully we'll get a day off Wed. or Thurs. It's pretty breezy here which doesn't happen on a September night unless there is a cold front or tropical influence, so the march is on. I'd be surprised if she makes it to Cat 2, but both Joe B. and the NHC are hinting as much. Rainfall might be 6-12" along the coast - if that. Because the sphere of influence is so big, effects likely will be felt between Talahassee/St. George to maybe even Galveston but more likely Lake Charles. Rarely will you see a TS or H raining over that much of the Gulf unless it's moving generally east or generally west near the coastline. Could be an interesting day!

Time to go BACK to sleep.

Steve


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
2 Systems
      #5126 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:22 AM

Looks like Izzy is coming back out over the water and going to head towards La. Should be a hurricane at landfall, the question now is how powerful? Watches/Warnings should be going up today. Lili still moving W, but expected to turn more WNW or NW bringing it toward Haiti as a hurricane. Watches/Warnings for that area later today too. Question after that is does it turn east of Florida or keep coming? Bucs won last night, but still 2nd best team in state, DOLPHINS 3-0.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Question
      #5127 - Tue Sep 24 2002 06:22 AM

Where do you all expect the watches to go up for Izzy?

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
I'll stay with what I said yesterday.
      #5128 - Tue Sep 24 2002 06:50 AM

Assuming Izzy is going to pick up forward speed. I can't see much above high Cat 1 for this system. Marginal Cat 2 seems to require a slower forward speed then forecast, IMHO. Izzy's lower level structure just got to disrupted to pull it together faster. Based on past gulf systems, I would say it is even possible that Izzy stays at TS level. The upper circulation is so large now, I don't know if the lower levels can constrict fast enough. However, if Izzy goes at a slower forward speed then forecast, all of this is off. I think NHC's current track makes sense; but if Izzy doesn't get to full forward speed. there could be a Cat 2 at the Al/MS border in a few days.

--------------------
Jim


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RickiinMobile
Unregistered




looks like izzy is getting frizzy
      #5129 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:13 AM

He'll need to tighten up....and will. remember that the SST's are warm and deep, and the hurricane shape is intact, top to bottom...it all depends on forward speed..7 mph...is a nice enough speed to get it going...and 50 mph is fast enough for the engine to regenerate. THINK ABOUT IT...if this had newly formed....we would all be predicting a much stronger storm...right?....so why not now?

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
My thoughts this morning...
      #5130 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:16 AM

Looking at the latest IR loop the system appears to be moving off to the NW or NNW.... I'd estimate the center to be at approximately 21.7N and 89.9W. And with a moving system I think the worthless models should start performing better as to the track.... So I am reasonably sure this system should not give us any BIG surprises as far as tracking, if anything maybe a slight jog to the east as it approaches the coast...

The big question I have is intensity... this is a very large system... SSTs are prime and I would not be surprised to see Izzy get to a Cat 2 with 110 mph winds... I remember how Opal exploded into a major storm while approaching the coast when it was just south of Biloxi, which was not projected by any forecast... but it weaked somewhat when it went inland in FL.... This is also a scenario to consider, however, I don't think Izzy will weaken as it approaches the coast, and may continue to strengthen right until land fall... Best guess right now is the center would be 50 miles either side of New Orleans.. but since it is such a big system the entire northern gulf coast will feel some of its effects....

Hey, at least I got 6 hours of sleep last night.... now tonight maybe a different story as all eyes will be focused on intensity.... minimal hurricane or not, at least he is finally moving off the YP...


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