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Archives 2000s >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: My thoughts this morning...
      #5131 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:28 AM

Agree Rick with one exception... Izzy does not have the high pressure aloft right now it had when it cranked to a Cat 3.... this may come about with time, which will certainly enhance development... also agree that unless this thing starts moving faster than 15 mph... anything less is certainly slow enough for strengthening to continue...

Edited by Frank P (Tue Sep 24 2002 07:29 AM)


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: My thoughts this morning...
      #5132 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:33 AM

Agree Frank, This storm still has decent structure, and should crank pretty quickly. Pressure low, SST high and an anticyclone still aloft. Thing is, it will be strengthening as it makes landfall whcih you don't want. This is not moving because of a crushing front, but the flow as heights are building to the east. This could crank up by tonight, then have all day tomorrow to intensify and tighten up. Cheers!! Steve H.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
one more thing
      #5133 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:35 AM

very little convection around the center right now... On the GOES IR zoom, it does appear that some is trying to from on the nw and se quadrants... but it is minimal at best right now... something to watch throughout the day... all the deep convection is well removed NNE of the center heading for the LA/MS/AL coast

should be an interesting day no doubt....... gotta love it


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Rick in Mobile
Unregistered




Opal, and others
      #5134 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:36 AM

as the CDO re-develops, so TOO will the anticyclonic high above. sure looks like a nice tropical storm...cat 1 at landfall. give me a break...that's only 25-40 mph increase or so...and the ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO....

i can't think of a single storm with this kind of potential that DIDN'T strengthen considerably.

I am staying with my prediction of a cat 4-5 at landfall. Too many reasons it will develop, and not enough reasons to believe it won't...

FORWARD SPEED THE KEY...but that, of course, isn't telling anyone anything they don't already know.

anyone know if a stall is possible.?.....the way this thing has behaved....the last thing I am looking at is the computer models...just take a look at the whole picture, like Joe B does....



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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
That's it for me..........
      #5135 - Tue Sep 24 2002 08:08 AM

I think this trough could pull him more East. I'm going to work today and then I'm going to BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES! This is scary.

SirCane in Pensacola



--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Re: That's it for me..........
      #5136 - Tue Sep 24 2002 08:14 AM

I was just looking at the latest loop of Izzy and it sure looks like he has stalled again. The first few frames show him moving off of land at a pretty good clip but then the last few frames he looks like he just stopped. This front coming through saved us here in Texas but if Izzy has stalled than he will likely push further east than expected. Here is a "wishcast".....wouldn't it be cool if Izzy stalled and missed the trough and then somehow decided to take a mad dash for Mexico? I know, there is NO way that would happen, but that is why it is called "wishcasting".

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Mike
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: Port St. John, Fla
Lili info
      #5137 - Tue Sep 24 2002 08:15 AM

From the NWS in Melbourne: EXTENDED...GFS MODEL PREVIOUSLY INDICATED THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR SUN. BUT AS EXPECTED IT IS PULLING BACK ON THIS
FORECAST. STILL A BIT TOO EARLY FOR A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
MODEL FORECASTS LILI TO TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
AHEAD OF THIS WEAKENING TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT EACH RUN
BRINGS IT CLOSER AND CLOSER TO FL.

From the NWS in Miami: EXTENDED...ISIDORE WILL FINALLY (I HOPE) BE HISTORY BY THIS TIME.
THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAY TEMPORARILY BUILD SOUTHWEST
INTO OUR AREA AND WE MAY SEE A MUCH DRIER WEATHER PATTERN OVER EAST
COAST SECTIONS THU AND FRI. BUT WAIT...LILI MAY HAVE A SURPRISE IN
STORE FOR US AS THE NEW GUIDANCE HAVE THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY.
WE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIB NEXT FEW DAYS.


If Izzy holds true and Lili does what the models think then FEMA could be very busy come this weekend.

It will be very interesting to see all three storms interreact.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Shawn
      #5138 - Tue Sep 24 2002 08:25 AM

I agree that for the last 30 minutes of the IR loop the center does not appear to be moving as much as it was.... however to me the entire system still looks to be creeping northward or so ...

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tom5r
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
Re: Lili info
      #5139 - Tue Sep 24 2002 08:32 AM

Mike,
What a concept...a crossfire hurricane, Jumping Jack Flash.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Opal, and others
      #5140 - Tue Sep 24 2002 09:05 AM

The main difference I see in Isidore from the other systems is a difference in stages. All of the rapidly strengthening systems you mentioned were young and tight. To look at Isidore is to look at a middle age man. He is somewhat big and flabby. A youngster will grow stronger a whole lot faster then a flabby middle age guy. Not exactly the same when it comes to storms; but it is going to take a lot longer time for a storm like Izzy to pull together and tighten everything around the central core then a newer growing system. Yes, the energy and pressure is there. I just think that the flow and inertia of the all the flows will make it a longer road harder road for our middle age storm to tighten up the flab. Hence, no more then cat 1 minimal Cat 2 if this forecast path pans out. If Izzy idles and stalls, then stronger is definately possible if not probable, IMHO.

--------------------
Jim


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Opal, and others
      #5141 - Tue Sep 24 2002 09:11 AM

However, look at the convection building to the SW of this system (Izzy) that seems like it will wrap more tightly toward the east, then north of the system. Give him about 6 hours and this will have the look of not a middle aged man, but one with a hot new crr and a hot new babe (mid-life crisis). Watch out for Izzy! He is serious!! CHeers!! Steve H.

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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Lili info
      #5142 - Tue Sep 24 2002 09:22 AM

Well folks, round 4 has started. Izzy at least made it off the coast.

All the blasted models coninue to shift ever slightly to the east. I'll stick with my NO to rickinmobile landfall. He doesn't need to play any more games, because here in FL we have women problems coming from the east. The 0Z GFDL showed JAX getting hit in 120 hrs. I feel much safer now. The 6Z shows Izzy going from 13kts to 37kts just as he makes landfall. Nuff' said.

It's been raining all morning here in Jax. Predicted to continue for at least several more days, maybe a slight break, and then????

Joe in Jax



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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered




houma
      #5143 - Tue Sep 24 2002 09:32 AM

thats where im sending izzy. intensity is up in the air, dependent on how quickly a CDO reforms. we get that in 6 hours, big hurricane comes ashore. 24 hours and probably just a very weak one. landfall late thursday.
lili's latest recon got 69kt flight level winds. looks to be more aligned this morning.. guess it will be a hurricane in another 24.
kyle is ambling along. a little stronger.
disturbance near 19/40 is drifting along still, shear overhead but a little convection still going. not going to do much developing as is, but will watch it until it goes away.
anything forming off the east coast will have to do so in a hurry.
gray skies, specks of rain, easterly breeze with gusts. this reminds me of the morning Opal was coming. but this isnt an Opal just yet.
HF 1334z24september


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Just lookin....
      #5144 - Tue Sep 24 2002 10:21 AM

The center of circ of Izzy is just east of 90 W...most of the models have it west of 90 west (about 91 to 93W) right now...so watch for either a westerly jog or a slight eastward track shift.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 359
Loc: Southeast, FL
Kyle
      #5145 - Tue Sep 24 2002 10:44 AM

intersting note from joe bastardi he saids kyle is gonna come down sw then stall a bit then try to come sw even more next week???? he pointed an arrow into the southern bahamas on his meto map disco.

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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Re: Just lookin....
      #5146 - Tue Sep 24 2002 10:47 AM

Jason, did you notice the minor change in NHC track at 11:00? Moved track through center GOM about 50 miles east, but impact point exactly the same as 0500 hr forecast?

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Just lookin....
      #5147 - Tue Sep 24 2002 10:48 AM

Latest GOES vis indicates that Izzy is at 22.0N and 89.96W (my estimated position).... System still moving slowly off to the NNW.... center is a little bit easier to find than earlier this morning.... As Jason stated, this is a little east of where most of the models forecasted the system to be at this time, also I think it is off (but not as much) as to its projected latitude position for this time, maybe 1 degree lag...
main thing is that it is still moving... this might all add up to a little more shift to the east...maybe


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Just lookin....
      #5148 - Tue Sep 24 2002 10:51 AM

One thing I did notice was Tampa showing up in strike probabilities after a long absence, indicating some kind of an eastward bias. Not that Tampa is very likely. Only minor. But read between the lines. I think they are just being conservative and holding off to see if there is going to be enough westward motion. If not soon, I would expect the track to start shifting right with the next advisory.

--------------------
Jim


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
For the record...
      #5149 - Tue Sep 24 2002 10:53 AM

Check out the early morning visibles. It looks much better than it does on IR. Let's see if it gets cranking. Bastardi continues with his idea that the storm will semi-stall today as it is influenced by the Yucatan Peninsula and is calling for landfall Thursday Night in Louisiana. Several of the models have maintained this track and it's likely to hold. I still think landfall in MS, but it's not going to Big Bend, Tampa or Lake City. FUGETABAHDIT.

Iz is for one of us between 87-91W.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: For the record...
      #5150 - Tue Sep 24 2002 11:04 AM

11AM NHC advisory puts the center of Isidore at 22.1N, 90.0W....but looking at the latest visible satellite image (13:45 UTC), it is obvious that the center is still south of that point. Placing the cursor over the clearly defined center on the zoomed-in image gives a reading of 21.8N, 89.95W...not a huge difference, but I don't think this storm is yet moving along as fast as the latest advisory would have us believe.

Lou


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