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Invest 97L has dropped to 30% chance of development over the next 5 days. Watching as it rapidly moves west over the Atlantic.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 330 (Nicholas) , Major: 345 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1399 (Michael) Major: 1399 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: It's moving NE...
      #5212 - Tue Sep 24 2002 06:33 PM

That, plus the 2 mb pressure drop gives signs that things are getting together....we should begin to see convection firing near the center soon (which we need...to track this thing on IR at night).

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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RickinMobile
Unregistered




izzyinmobile
      #5213 - Tue Sep 24 2002 06:50 PM

I'm BAAACK...
suprised at how slow it is moving. guess what?....plenty of time to get his act together. plenty. not sure, though, if a slow movement north doesn't throw everything in an uproar as far as models go...

still looking for a cat 4-5 at landfall...nothing detracts me from that...

anyone notice how LARGE this system is?....taking up the entire gulf of mexico....appears to me to be moving quite slowly though...the forecasters had predicted much faster movement...if izzy moves like this for 24 more hours...then consider.....isn't that enough time for it to "get over" it's effects from land?...sure...plus...it will throw out the models considering a more westerly landfall in Louisiana...

if it lingers enough...look out Florida..

prediction....ho hum...
cat 4-5 Mobile, Alabama...or nearenoughthereofto give me a headache...

Lilly comes in about 4 days later...same spot..

you heard it from me first....


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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: izzyinmobile
      #5214 - Tue Sep 24 2002 06:56 PM

Okaaaaaaaaaaay RickinMobile ! They just flashed across the screen that Mobile Co. Public Schools are cancelled for tomorrow. Do you work for the schoolboard by any chance ?? Alright, I'll concede to the fact that, yes, Mobile will get some bad weather outta this but another direct hit here much less a cat 4 or 5 is OUT OF THE QUESTION. (I hope !)

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: izzyinmobile
      #5215 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:00 PM

I guess i'll stick with Jason's prediction of cat one or near cat2 storm haha. sorry rick. Jason, how sure are u that this storm will get to hurricane force. I guess its anyones guess but i would like your opinion or anyone else who has a comment?

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Rickinmobile
Unregistered




Opal
      #5216 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:03 PM

Opal was a cat 5...due to hit us in 12 hours...you can imagine how excited I was...I was freaking...filled the bathtubs with water..ran around like a chicken with my head cut off....almost in panick mode...cause I had been through a 3...but this was a 5!...

guess what...it veered right..hit Pensacola...and since we were on the wimp side of the storm...we got 40-60 mph winds...TOPS...

I say this for two reasons...who knows?...NOONE..I only say Mobile cause I live here...PERIOD>....though I have a wierd feeling....

but...Joe Bastardi indicated this one would tighten up at landfall...so a 2 would tighten to a 3...etc....because it would hit at a 90 degree angle...and other reasons...PLUS..the darned thing is so large...Opal was a minnie me...compared to this....

I just have no doubt it will blossom back and every 2x4, flashlight, and battery will be gone by tomorrow night...

it is raining hard here and has been ......very tropical...oughta soften up the ground so that all these beautiful oak trees we have get ruined...pushed over....do I want this storm.?...no...no one does...but someday...someone on this coast is gonna get the big one...

could be NOW....


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Rick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Wisconsin
Re: izzyinmobile
      #5217 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:03 PM

Talk about "wishcasting"!!!!!!????? Sheesh, you guys!!!

What I see is the convection in the entire ne quad being ripped away. Sure, it can close up with the remaining energy, but it has to rebuild from scratch, now.


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capesanblasfl
Unregistered




question for Jason
      #5218 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:22 PM

Hi Jason, have a question for you or anyone else that cares to answer.
I got a call today and the delivery truck is scheduled to deliver my furniture to Cape San Blas on Thursday morning! Yuck! They will not reschedule it knowing the threat of hurricane Izzy. (truck is coming out of state), so we are heading out of Atl tomorrow to be there in time. What kind of mess am I coming into? I saw on TWC that they shifted the forecast a little east. This is making me a little worried. I have a feeling I am going to get down there and have to go through this and still not meet the furniture truck.
This will be my 1st hurricane. How well does Gulf county handle the large amounts of rainfall? Any areas that tend to flood quickly? What mandates an evacuation in the Cape San Blas area?
Thanks for any help,
Marcie


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: question for Jason
      #5219 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:25 PM

Frankly, If I were you, I'd tell them to reschedule, or CANCEL the order. I just wouldn't be putting new furnature into a place that is likely to be damaged at about the same time as the delivery is supposed to occur.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: question for Jason
      #5220 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:31 PM

You'll be fairly wet and miserable, but there shouldn't be too much of a flooding problem, if a significant eastward shift of the track doesn't occur (which, realistically, doesn't look that likely....but it is something to monitor)...just get the tarps out and watch for standing water and you should be OK.

I don't see a need for evacs around our area at this point unless something SERIOUSLY changes...could happen, but unlikely.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Re: question for Jason
      #5221 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:34 PM

I personally do not see the NE movement that everyone is talking about. I see the clouds being blown off to the NE but the actual center looks to be pretty much stationary. They are calling for some rain here in the Houston area but I don't think it will happen.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




The Cape and Florida...
      #5222 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:37 PM

You gotta remember that Florida SOIl is some of the sandiest stuff around. It drains better than almost anywhere else. It drains so well sometimes, it even forms its own sinkholes

Anyway, we're about to get hit with another decent band. Winds have been 15-25 all day, I estimate about 2" of rain, and it hasn't stopped since morning.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml

Steve (the unlogged in variety!!)


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caneman
Unregistered




Re: question for Jason
      #5223 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:44 PM

Guys, Am I missing something here? It sure doesn't look impressive to me and pretty doubtful it will even re-gain Cane status. Looks to be a Giant rainmaker from LA. to Fla. and points North.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
where are we...?
      #5224 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:44 PM

isidore: hasnt changed much today. inner core is bare, convection is all in bands 200 miles away. no significant changes until CDO starts to redevelop, and i cant predict when that will happen. it SHOULD happen at some point, but the later it does, the weaker the storm. notice NHC official intensity at landfall keeps getting lower and lower.
track philosophy.. still staying with southeast louisiana. not going away from that until it's obviously headed northeast. it has jogged that way a couple of times but headed generally north.
lili: too much hype already. i keep hearing east coast of florida and such. still not entirely sure it is going to hold together.. in spite of its intensification the system is elongated per recon reports, and still getting sheared fairly heavily. the orientation of the shear is changing.. so in all sensible logic the storm should begin to finally organize.. but still uncertain. NHC track is finally shifting to the south in the short term.. but i'm south in the long term. think jamaica a more likely target than haiti. the bastardi idea that this doesnt come up, but cuts off near the florida straits.. is what im going to go with. i sort of saw it crossing the caribbean and coming up behind isidore, but looks like the post isidore ampification should stay north and just stall it or something. lots of land interaction possible, making an intensity forecast is useless.
kyle: should slowly keep working south and west. it's cut off behind a mean ridge, and when that ridge is strong it will be driven along the periphery. by the way NHC has been too low with intensity, this system is a hurricane as we speak. of course, in a year of 954mb tropical storms i dont expect them to come that close.
nothing else in the basin threatening. mrf in the long range has some western caribbean suggestions, but still waiting for more verification on the synoptic pattern, and any potential spark system that would be needed there.
HF 2346z24september


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Rick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Wisconsin
Re: question for Jason
      #5225 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:50 PM

The remains of Izzy will not see cat2 again. The CDO will be hard to recover. Just my humble opinion.

The floor is open for gloom and doom rebuttals.


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: The Cape and Florida...
      #5226 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:53 PM

Steve, same up the coast. We getting hit with a blob of rain from the south, that combined for about an hour with another band off the ocean. It's steady now, but we got over an inch just in that one hour. Flood watch, flash flood warning, ect. We may get a break for about 1-2 hours in a little bit, then next batch starts up. Raining almost all afternoon, no end in sight,yet. Driveway's pretty full, but the ground is handling the water OK. Winds 15-20 mph. Just the start of a looooong week of this stuff. Drought? Can't even remember what the word means...........

Joe in JAX


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Rick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Wisconsin
Re: The GFDL models
      #5227 - Tue Sep 24 2002 08:02 PM

It really ticks me off that the GFDL models show different results depending on which storm you spotlight. That tells me that they are running old or outdated data on some models. What else could cause the discrepancy? Pbbbfffttt!

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Yo Jo...
      #5228 - Tue Sep 24 2002 08:07 PM

One thing we'll all remember Isidore for is the sphere of effect it has. Never before have I seen a storm that simultaneously affected Jacksonville to Lake Charles. That's literally 700 miles and pretty hard to believe. I figured Galveston to Tally, but I was about 150 miles too far west with the influence. Still, this is a pretty incredible. And when you consider that even Miami and the Bahamas have a bit of feed coming in, that's unheard of - not to mention Mexico, Belize and Guatemala and even an extension out into the East Pac that may develop on it's own, WOW.

Tropical storms are sometimes far weirder than hurricanes.

Steve


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: The GFDL models
      #5229 - Tue Sep 24 2002 08:13 PM

Don't get me started on the GFDL. When everything else points to Lili turning north, it runs her into Central America, then on the next run it hit N FL.That model is seriously tweaked, and part of the Axis of Evil.

I have noticed while there is no convection around the center of Izzy, he is trying to pull up a band from SE. He might end up close enough to it to regain Cat1 by this time tomorrow. Anyway, the further he pulls away from the Yucatan, the more likely he tighten up a bit. With all this energy I can't see him being a dry storm when he hits.

Joe in JAX


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alan
Unregistered




Re: where are we...?
      #5231 - Tue Sep 24 2002 08:14 PM

Ok, here's a question.

The same trough that is supposed to turn Isidore due north for the next two days is supposed to be so far south as to turn Lili shortly thereafter.
If this trough is going to be moving through and past Florida before Saturday, why wouldn't the trough push Isidore even further east?
I mean, is Isidore going to bust through the trough as it moves past her?


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5232 - Tue Sep 24 2002 08:22 PM

neal frank said at 5pm on the world news this thing could grow fast to a cat 3 before land fall dont be shocked

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