Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Tropical Weather Outlooks resume tomorrow, but the Atalntic Hurricane season officially starts on June 1st.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 245 (Nicholas) , Major: 261 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1315 (Michael) Major: 1315 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | >> (show all)
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5071 - Mon Sep 23 2002 08:35 PM

Tropical Storm Isidore spent most of the day completing a cyclonic wobble over the Yucatan but in the past couple of hours he hints at a northeast movement. The overall cloud structure has changed from an east-west orientation to a north-south orientation - which tells me that an eventual movement to the north may slowly get underway. The convective core is long gone and should the cyclone finally get back into the Gulf - and I think that it will - it will take awhile for that core to rebuild. Remember, over water the storm develops the CDO as it grows in intensity. Low pressure doesn't mean instant success - it just means that the system has a better chance of success in the rebuilding process. Isidore may only grow to a shadow of his former self, especially if he starts to speed up, but Cat II certainly seems reasonable. Fast moving tropical cyclones seldom intensify much.

Where will Isidore go? Who knows! Probably further east than originally projected - the atmosphere has changed a bit since Izzy first made landfall. Speaking of projections, the landfall certainly wasn't (except for a crazy looking GFDL run which we all ignored). My point is that the models are not the gospel - they certainly missed the southward movement - use them cautiously and listen closely to your local met office or your local broadcast met that you trust (unsolicited plug for Greg and Jason ) Why hasn't Isidore moved? Easy - zero steering currents. The total circulation envelope of the cyclone is so huge that the only current currents (ah, what a double!) are the cyclones' circulation itself. If it's own upper air pattern alters enough it will likely start an eventual movement to the north - if not, well tropical cyclones do meet their demise over land.

Tropical Storm Lili - finally! Actually I've had this system at tropical storm strength since about 2pm yesterday afternoon. NHC may have been a little too cautious with this system. Satellite imagery said 'TS', and since a TD was already underway, you can't always wait on an aircraft report - but enough of that. From a meteorological perspective Lili looks like she has gotten her act together. What scares me is that my 72 hour position and the NHC 72hr position match - exactly! St Lucia is next in her sights (one of my favorite Caribbean islands - worth going to if you get a chance).

Where will Lili go? So far, this one is a lot easier than Isidore. Clips Haiti - crosses Cuba - pay attention in south Florida. If it moves further west, then Jamaica could get hit again - they sure don't need that - crosses western Cuba - pay attention in southwest Florida. Expect Lili to reach hurricane strength within 24 hours, and nothing much to weaken it until it hits Cuba. Right now it looks like Puerto Rico is okay, but that does not mean to ignore it. This is a bit of a stretch (timewise), but probably a Sunday event for Florida - more track details later on in the Storm Forum. Keep in mind that Kyle is part of the steering problem. As he slowly intensifies and drifts southwestward, his circulation is helping to reinforce the ridge to his southwest - not much, but a little.



If you live along the Gulf coast or the Southeast coast, keep your eyes on this dynamic duo.

Cancun, Mexico Radar

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City Weather Audio Broadcast Network - Live Audio from Jim Williams and Barometer Bob , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.

- [ Ed Dunham ]

Edited by MikeC (Mon Sep 23 2002 11:04 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
mp3reed
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 16
Loc: Abilene, Texas USA
Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5072 - Mon Sep 23 2002 08:42 PM

Very thorough SITREP.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5073 - Mon Sep 23 2002 08:59 PM

I really am having a hard time locating the circulation center of Lili. Dvorak loops and IR loops show strong convection but i have trouble seeing the low level turning. Seems to me she is getting lifted NW. This could, of course be that she is a small closed ow now. Anyone know the exact location. Izzy getting off Yucatan soon, should follow the prescribed track. GFDL has a scary scenario for cuba and Florida as well as Haiti. One rule of thumb i stick to usually. WHere the storm is shown in the models to go, is where it won't. So I feel safe here in East Central Florida....until further notice. Fare thee well on the Northern Gulf Coast!!! God be with you!! Cheers!! Steve H.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5074 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:01 PM

My estimate is about 310-330 motion right now....looks like it is really beginning a move...

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5075 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:10 PM

Jason are u talking about Izzy? It needs to move pretty soon if it wants to do any more then just die.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5076 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:26 PM

Looking at the latest infra & Wv loops it appears that Lili is moving north, and so is Izzy. What do you think that will do for the forcast of Lili? East Coast maybe??

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Latest model runs... OH JOY
      #5077 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:33 PM

Models has shifted eastward.... as Jason predicted...

Basically all four models from the NHC have Izzy off the mouth of the MS river in 48 hours.... And guess what, some are predicting a MS coast impact "CAN YOU IMAGINE THAT" and from a Cat 1

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/02092400

on a related note, I am selling the Biloxi back bay bridge this weekend... any and all offers will be considered...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Latest model runs... OH JOY
      #5078 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:36 PM

are there any graphics for the new model runs?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Latest model runs... OH JOY
      #5079 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:41 PM

I cant get the loops to work can someone tell me if izzy is starting or is gonna start making a definitve move to the north or wherever.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5080 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:41 PM

isidore.. not moving much as far as i can tell. i'd still call it quasi stationary. isidore didnt pick the greatest place in the world to stall, for its own sake. another few hours without movement and the center may try to reform. of course there is still plenty to this thing at the mid levels right now and that would be a difficult process.
lili.. youre having a hard time tracking it because the center is outrunning the convection, has been since late this morning. i'd put the center around 63.5w right now. it's trying its damndest to commit suicide. maybe another center will form back under the convection.. as seemed to happen yesterday. i'm still not sold on its survival.
HF 0142z24september


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Latest model runs... OH JOY
      #5081 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:43 PM

They show Lili getting tangled up with Haiti/DR and starting to slow.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5082 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:45 PM

I just got through watching the IR loop and I couldn't detect any real movement...

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: Latest model runs... OH JOY
      #5083 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:45 PM

Frank
I will give you a $.99 Checkers Chicken Sandwich and all the notes to my Mass Media Research Test next Tuesday (dealing with Quantitative and Qualitative research) and one of my (5) 2 liters of Moubtain Dew from my Izzy supplies for that bridge..

let me know! good bridges are hard to come by!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Latest model runs... OH JOY
      #5084 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:48 PM

Justin,

I'm not sure how recent these plots are, or whether they reflect the data everyone's talking about, but it's there for you to check out:

Izzy Model Plots

Jay

--------------------
Londovir


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Latest model runs... OH JOY
      #5085 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:49 PM

Sold to the highest bidder...... one large bay bridge.... hey, I'll throw in some models runs with it just to sweeten the deal..

Troy, just give me the chicken sandwich and Mountain Dew... you can keep the notes... My college days are over......



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5086 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:52 PM

IZZY LOOKS TO BE TRYING TO FEED HIM SELF COULD BE VERY CLOSE TO THE GULF I THINK IT WONT TAKE MUCH WHEN HE DOES TO TAKE OFF AND COULD GET STRONG FAST

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: Latest model runs... OH JOY
      #5087 - Mon Sep 23 2002 09:52 PM

Frank,
Sounds like a deal. Keep the model runs though.
Now a model on a trampoline, thats a different story!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: Latest model runs... OH JOY
      #5088 - Mon Sep 23 2002 10:09 PM

HF
a few hours ago I would have agreed with you on Lili. But, I think either a) the LLC has slowed and finally allowed the upper circulation to catch up or b) a new LLC has formed under the mass of convection and upper circ.

On the lasted up close loop i cant make out the circulation at
63.5. What looks like the complete syatem at about 61.5 or so seems to have impressive outflow. Of course recon will paint a more precise picture. When is recon heading there? anyone now?

Troy


Edited by troy2 (Mon Sep 23 2002 10:13 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rickinmobile
Unregistered




back in the bath before sunrise
      #5089 - Mon Sep 23 2002 10:19 PM

cat 3-4 at landfall....

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: back in the bath before sunrise
      #5090 - Mon Sep 23 2002 10:22 PM

rick when is izzy gonna come back over water? an what about us folks in pensacola what do u have to say?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5091 - Mon Sep 23 2002 10:25 PM

COULD HAPPEN THIS STORM IS SO BIG WHEN WILL IT START THE MOVE IF IT STAYS STILL ALL NIGHT HE WILL DIE HE BEST GET MOVING

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rick in mobile
Unregistered




already moving, unless I am seeing things...
      #5092 - Mon Sep 23 2002 10:32 PM

Isidore has moved to the northeast..just as shown....slightly...no longer gonna sit there...starting it's move. I will hang here for another three hours, but IZZY is fixin to get it going. Only drawback is the forward speed...if it gets to going too fast...the upper anti-cyclonic ridge will not keep up...and it could end up a cat 2 or so...however, if the northern movement is rather slow...say 12 mph or so...then it could explode...plenty of time and gulf of mexico to make it happen. In fact..when considering the POTENTIAL...all things are there for this storm to re-intensify...
I will post after two more 1/2 hour loops...and see if the shift to the nw is real. if it is...get ready...

IT'S PARTY TIME!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
DopplerGal
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 5
Loc: S. E. Alabama
Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5093 - Mon Sep 23 2002 10:38 PM

Was just wondering, historically speaking.........how does Izzy compare to other hurricanes from a size perspective. Not intensity, but wind radius?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Floridacane
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: already moving, unless I am seeing things...
      #5094 - Mon Sep 23 2002 10:39 PM

It looks like a more north north-west movement to me, but VERY slow.
I'm perplexed by Izzy, he has been very fun to watch, as are all hurricanes. Lili still looks due west in this water vapor image. Here's the latest water vapor, anyone care to guess on the next advisories...?

--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Floridacane
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: already moving, unless I am seeing things...
      #5095 - Mon Sep 23 2002 10:41 PM

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
Sorry, here's the water vapor image I forgot to paste on last post

--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5096 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:06 PM

well i tried to get in the chat room at hurricane hollow and it didnt load in. i used my user name and email, but when i clicked on nothing happens. Anyone else have this trouble? scottsvb

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Floridacane
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5097 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:09 PM

Scott, I also had trouble. It locked up on me twice. 3rd time was a charm, but there are so many people in there it's very difficult to keep up with everyone typing so darn fast.

--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Houstontracker
Unregistered




Re: already moving, unless I am seeing things...
      #5098 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:14 PM

I have to disagree with the TPC's 10pm position. I could be wrong, but I think they are too far east. Take a look at

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

and go to the Thermal Infrared Floater #1 GOES8. The blue shaded clouds seem to be rotating around a point near 20.4n/89.8w. this is where I believe the center is moving slowly wnw. If you slow the loop down, this become a little more evident.

If the center is where the TPC put it 10pm, then why are the clouds moving north on the west side of their center?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: already moving, unless I am seeing things...
      #5099 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:27 PM

HoustonTracker
I see what you are saying. I think it may be a woble more to the west. that being said, that wobble puts it that much closer to being back over water.

Cool link. I had that page bookmarked but lost it somehow. Glad you posted it

I had posted just before the new news item appeared a question re: what the chances are of a storm over land and close to the water as Izzy is trying to reform its center back over the water.
anyone have any thoughts on that??


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Floridacane
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: already moving, unless I am seeing things...
      #5100 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:28 PM

I just might have to agree with you. Good loop image. I don't think anyone at the NHC has any hair left on their heads following this storm, which I think I'll rename him, Isidork... I'm tired, gimme a break

--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kimmie at home
Unregistered




Re: already moving, unless I am seeing things...
      #5101 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:28 PM

Houston, I noticed the same thing. Looks like it is moving north, northwest. I wonder what we will find in the morning? I doubt Izzy is done!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
My Two Cents Worth!
      #5102 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:39 PM

Take a look at the link below. It looks to me like Izzy is trying to take a dip SW. Tell me what you see.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: already moving, unless I am seeing things...
      #5103 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:42 PM

Troy2:
Well I guess that it has happened before, but I don't really have a good answer. This storm has such a large circulation envelope that I just can't imagine how it could spin up a secondary center. You can often see secondary centers in weak developing storms, but thats with storms which are over water.
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: My Two Cents Worth!
      #5104 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:44 PM

sure looks that way, at first.

I think its the convection rotating around the center and the last frame shows it on the SW side of that center.
Wondering what Izzy will do when its back over water. Still a nice circulation and a wide one at that.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: My Two Cents Worth!
      #5105 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:48 PM

NHC said hurricane watches may be needed tomorrow can someone please tell me were they might issue it from. I am guessin Houma to maybe Destin

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
My question
      #5106 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:48 PM

thanks Ed. I didn think it would reform just because of how pronounced the center was.

well its bedtime...Exam at 8am.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: My question
      #5107 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:51 PM

Hurricane Watches where can someone please give me a guess maybe no school tomorrow in Pensacola???

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: My Two Cents Worth!
      #5108 - Mon Sep 23 2002 11:51 PM

It will strongly depend on the 00Z and 12Z AVn runs, and if there is any further eastward drift in the track...I like Houma, but if the AVN continues to drift east, then the watch may extend to Apalachicola.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Lili Lifting Up?
      #5109 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:03 AM

Just looked at the IR loop for Lili and it looks like Lili is hauling some good speed towards the NW, say maybe 300 by my guess. Almost beginning to think PR might be in trouble, like the BAMD model was thinking on the latest run. If so, Kyle could have something to say about that too.

Starting to look interesting. If I could indulge my complete and total lack of weather knowledge -- looking at the water vapor loops, looks like there is a huge wave of dry air sweeping down from NY to TX. Could this, if it pushes off the coast, be enough of an event to skirt Lili off and away to the NE if they met? I know Kyle is still an unknown in this, but I'm just wondering if that could affect Lili like that....

Jay

--------------------
Londovir


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: My Two Cents Worth!
      #5110 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:06 AM

thanks jason i enjoy reading your post an all itsinfo i am really learning alot. do u think there may be a continued eastward drift in the models? seems like a dumb question sorry just wondering

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered




hmm...
      #5111 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:07 AM

i was wrong about how far west of its convection lili is, but at least not about it being there. think the 60mph winds are a little generous. important change in the advisory was forward speed.. slowed to 17mph. it was going 23 this morning. i'm starting to lose my doubts about it's survival.. but still think the NHC track is too strong and too far north.
isidork (like the rename choice) is still doing what it does best.. nothing. ive been hearing its going this way, or starting to go that way.. all day. after i kept predicting it to move offshore last night and it just sat on its little piece of yucatan real estate in defiance.. ive decided not to make any assumptions until i see it really move. by this i mean twenty miles in one direction. that would be something at this point. will not be surprised if i wake up tomorrow and find that it has failed to do so. think the NHC track is too fast and intensity is too low.. as i think the storm will regenerate very quickly once offshore. if isidore isnt offshore by tomorrow afternoon the louisiana landfall is off, it will definitely go further east.
kyle, the much neglected fish spinner.. is if nothing else going to have a very interesting track. in about five days its westward steering flow will weaken, and it will probably do another loop while the ridge rebuilds. it is worth noting that long range modeling has ridging in the western atlantic generally holding.. so we could be still talking about kyle next week.
elsewhere.. have the nagging suspicion that something else will try to develop from the cape verdes. also still keeping an eye east of the bahamas as convection there is in a weaker shearing environment.
HF 0409z24september


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: My Two Cents Worth!
      #5112 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:08 AM

In a word?

Yes.

However, if Izzy doesn't get back over water soon, it might not matter...



--------------------
Jason Kelley


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: My Two Cents Worth!
      #5113 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:16 AM

yeah i agree with u it needs to do something soon at least move an not sit in one spot. what do u think the chances are if the storm doesnt move in the next 12 hours or so that it will die. i dont really know what to expect if that were to happen????

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Floridacane
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: My question
      #5114 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:20 AM

Hey Pensacola, get your school clothes ready for the am, and set your alarm clock.

--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
bsnyder
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
Re:
      #5115 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:27 AM

Just got home from the game and I see nothing much has changed with Izzy.....but how 'bout them Bucs?

Derrick Brooks - he's the man!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1182
Loc: fl
Re: My Two Cents Worth!
      #5116 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:31 AM

ALRIGHT CURRENTLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ISADORE HAS BEEN MOVING 50' OR A NE MOTION AS THE CONVECTION IS SLOWLY INCREASING ON THE W AND SW SIDE OF THE LLC.
I HAVENT REALLY POSTED ANY PERDICTIONS IN WHERE THIS WILL END UP OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS CAUSE I WANTED TO SEE WHERE HIS SW TURN WILL GO AND HOW LONG HE WILL BE THERE. IT DID HAPPEN ALITTLE QUICKER THEN WHAT THE MODELS WERE FORCASTING BUT GENERALLY THEY ALL DID SEE A SW TURN.
ILL KEEP THIS REAL BRIEF SINCE MOST OF YA ARE IN BED WHICH I SHOULD BE NOW,.ANYWAYS MY LAST POST 36HRS BACK SAID HE WILL WEAKEN AND COULD MOVE NNE IN TIME THEN BACK MORE TO THE NE BUT I DIDNT SAY FORSURE THIS WOULD HAPPEN AS I EXPECTED HIM TO REMAIN WELL S OF THE TROUGH. DUE TO THOUGH THE EARLY TURN AND STAYING EAST THE FL AREA SHOULD HAVE A GREATER CONCERN. I AGREE WITH FELLOW JASON ON A NNE MOTION WITH SOME WOBBLES TO THE LEFT OR RIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, A GENERAL TURN TO THE NE N OF 28' WILL PUT AREAS OF WAY NORTH OF TAMPA TO AS FAR WEST AS NEW ORLEANS IN THE WATCH AREA, THIS DOESNT MEAN THOUGH THIS WHOLE AREA WILL HAVEN HURRICANE WATCHES UP , JUST THAT THEY SHOULD MONITURE THE SYSTEM,. NOW AS OF WHERE HE COMES OFF THE COAST AND DIRECTION WILL DETERMINE WATCHES PROBABLY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT OR WEDS MORNING. CURRENTLY A TROUGH TO ITS N AND RIDGE BUILDING TO THE EAST WILL CAUSE A S AND SSW FLOW TO MOVE HIM N OR NNE. LATER A BEND TO THE RIGHT WILL BE AS HE RUNS ALONG THE TROUGH AND INTO THE SE US. CURRENT EXACT LANDFALL ISNT KNOWN YET BUT I SAY FROM MOBILE TO CEDAR KEY, BUT I WONT KNOW FORSURE LIKE ANYONE UNTIL 24HRS BEFORE LANDFALL. FROM NOW TILL 12PM TUESDAY WHERE HE ENTERS THE GULF COULD SHOW THE DIRECTION HE WILL GO. THATS IT FOR NOW, SCOTTSVB


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: My Two Cents Worth!
      #5117 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:37 AM

Local weathermen on our channels down here (Channel 28 for one) pretty much just signed off on BOTH Izzy and Lili. Said, and I quote, "0, zip, zilch risk to Florida from Isidore." As for Lili, basically said minimal Cat 1, Haiti or DR, recurve up and away to the NE. Incredible. And you wonder why no one takes these storms as seriously as they should....

Jay

--------------------
Londovir


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: My Two Cents Worth!
      #5118 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:43 AM

maybe i will have school tomorrow but maybe wednesday an thursday an friday will be different. NHC says watches could be issued an im guessin pensacola will be in or near it so maybe i'll stay home an prepare.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
The 00z AVN...
      #5119 - Tue Sep 24 2002 01:07 AM

Looking at the 1st 48 hrs of it while waiting on the rest...

MUCH slower...at hour 48 (7 pm CDT Wednesday nite) still well offshore south of N.O. Strengthening too...No sign of any west vector beyond about 24 hrs...almost due north and slower...anxiously awaitng the later periods to see if there is a east job towards the 48-72 hr time frame.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: The 00z AVN...
      #5120 - Tue Sep 24 2002 01:15 AM

Well...maybe not that much....

Hour 54 accelerates it...with landfall just after 60hrs (12z Thur...7 AM local) just east of Houma, LA...with no sign of an eastward jog...interesting..i figured there would be one....



--------------------
Jason Kelley


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Jason
      #5121 - Tue Sep 24 2002 01:34 AM

Sorry I missed your IM as I went and got a couple hours of shut eye... Looking at the latest IR I think I could detect the center at 20.9N adn 89.2W... which would indicate a slow northernly drift... but I also could be hallunicating as well...

Have you been able to detect any movement or am I just delusional?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
NHC confirmed the northerly motion
      #5122 - Tue Sep 24 2002 01:50 AM

Well at least I had the latitude right on the money at 20.9.... this is the most it has moved in a long time...... finally....

Hey, I also posted early yesterday that the system would be off the pensula by early tues morning and that looks like a possiblity... now if it hits just west of NO... then I'll be on a roll... yahoo

You can also see the leading edge of the outer rain bands starting to move north towards the MS/LA coast


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5123 - Tue Sep 24 2002 03:16 AM

IZZY GOING SOUTH AGAIN GOOD BY IZZY HE IS NOT COMING BACK ITS BEEN THAT KIND OF YEAR GOOD NIGHT AND SEE WHEN NEXT STORM MOVES IN

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5124 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:05 AM

Looks like Izzy is back over water now, should make for an interesting morning. Take a look at the 645uc IR frame of Kyle. That has to be one of the prettiest shots I've seen of a storm in a long time. Very pretty bands. Looks like kyle really has his act together. Should be VERY pretty once that last piece of kyle's pie gets filled in. Lets not forget my friend Lili. I been going on about her now for 3 days. Could be a hurricane tonight maybe? If she hits the Florida before Izzy or if Izzy doesn't at all I will be offering combo meals of crow.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




4am update out...
      #5125 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:47 AM

Isidore is moving NW and should make landfall in approximately 48 hours. This tells me that today and tomorrow will likely be the worst weather on the Gulf. 48 hours puts it just south of Terrebonne Parish as a Cat 1. Pressure is 985. I see two factors that will determine if he can get better organized: 1) eventual forward speed; 2) whether or not an anti-cyclonic/upper high develops overtop of Isidore. Lyons made one good point yesterday and that was that Iz had become a broad cyclone and lost some of it's upper support as it just sat and spun. Outer bands are now on the Coast of LA south of N.O. There is some fringe rain rotating west near Pensacola. I don't see this as a major event at this point. Hopefully we'll get a day off Wed. or Thurs. It's pretty breezy here which doesn't happen on a September night unless there is a cold front or tropical influence, so the march is on. I'd be surprised if she makes it to Cat 2, but both Joe B. and the NHC are hinting as much. Rainfall might be 6-12" along the coast - if that. Because the sphere of influence is so big, effects likely will be felt between Talahassee/St. George to maybe even Galveston but more likely Lake Charles. Rarely will you see a TS or H raining over that much of the Gulf unless it's moving generally east or generally west near the coastline. Could be an interesting day!

Time to go BACK to sleep.

Steve


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
2 Systems
      #5126 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:22 AM

Looks like Izzy is coming back out over the water and going to head towards La. Should be a hurricane at landfall, the question now is how powerful? Watches/Warnings should be going up today. Lili still moving W, but expected to turn more WNW or NW bringing it toward Haiti as a hurricane. Watches/Warnings for that area later today too. Question after that is does it turn east of Florida or keep coming? Bucs won last night, but still 2nd best team in state, DOLPHINS 3-0.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Question
      #5127 - Tue Sep 24 2002 06:22 AM

Where do you all expect the watches to go up for Izzy?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
I'll stay with what I said yesterday.
      #5128 - Tue Sep 24 2002 06:50 AM

Assuming Izzy is going to pick up forward speed. I can't see much above high Cat 1 for this system. Marginal Cat 2 seems to require a slower forward speed then forecast, IMHO. Izzy's lower level structure just got to disrupted to pull it together faster. Based on past gulf systems, I would say it is even possible that Izzy stays at TS level. The upper circulation is so large now, I don't know if the lower levels can constrict fast enough. However, if Izzy goes at a slower forward speed then forecast, all of this is off. I think NHC's current track makes sense; but if Izzy doesn't get to full forward speed. there could be a Cat 2 at the Al/MS border in a few days.

--------------------
Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
RickiinMobile
Unregistered




looks like izzy is getting frizzy
      #5129 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:13 AM

He'll need to tighten up....and will. remember that the SST's are warm and deep, and the hurricane shape is intact, top to bottom...it all depends on forward speed..7 mph...is a nice enough speed to get it going...and 50 mph is fast enough for the engine to regenerate. THINK ABOUT IT...if this had newly formed....we would all be predicting a much stronger storm...right?....so why not now?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
My thoughts this morning...
      #5130 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:16 AM

Looking at the latest IR loop the system appears to be moving off to the NW or NNW.... I'd estimate the center to be at approximately 21.7N and 89.9W. And with a moving system I think the worthless models should start performing better as to the track.... So I am reasonably sure this system should not give us any BIG surprises as far as tracking, if anything maybe a slight jog to the east as it approaches the coast...

The big question I have is intensity... this is a very large system... SSTs are prime and I would not be surprised to see Izzy get to a Cat 2 with 110 mph winds... I remember how Opal exploded into a major storm while approaching the coast when it was just south of Biloxi, which was not projected by any forecast... but it weaked somewhat when it went inland in FL.... This is also a scenario to consider, however, I don't think Izzy will weaken as it approaches the coast, and may continue to strengthen right until land fall... Best guess right now is the center would be 50 miles either side of New Orleans.. but since it is such a big system the entire northern gulf coast will feel some of its effects....

Hey, at least I got 6 hours of sleep last night.... now tonight maybe a different story as all eyes will be focused on intensity.... minimal hurricane or not, at least he is finally moving off the YP...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: My thoughts this morning...
      #5131 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:28 AM

Agree Rick with one exception... Izzy does not have the high pressure aloft right now it had when it cranked to a Cat 3.... this may come about with time, which will certainly enhance development... also agree that unless this thing starts moving faster than 15 mph... anything less is certainly slow enough for strengthening to continue...

Edited by Frank P (Tue Sep 24 2002 07:29 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: My thoughts this morning...
      #5132 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:33 AM

Agree Frank, This storm still has decent structure, and should crank pretty quickly. Pressure low, SST high and an anticyclone still aloft. Thing is, it will be strengthening as it makes landfall whcih you don't want. This is not moving because of a crushing front, but the flow as heights are building to the east. This could crank up by tonight, then have all day tomorrow to intensify and tighten up. Cheers!! Steve H.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
one more thing
      #5133 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:35 AM

very little convection around the center right now... On the GOES IR zoom, it does appear that some is trying to from on the nw and se quadrants... but it is minimal at best right now... something to watch throughout the day... all the deep convection is well removed NNE of the center heading for the LA/MS/AL coast

should be an interesting day no doubt....... gotta love it


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rick in Mobile
Unregistered




Opal, and others
      #5134 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:36 AM

as the CDO re-develops, so TOO will the anticyclonic high above. sure looks like a nice tropical storm...cat 1 at landfall. give me a break...that's only 25-40 mph increase or so...and the ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO....

i can't think of a single storm with this kind of potential that DIDN'T strengthen considerably.

I am staying with my prediction of a cat 4-5 at landfall. Too many reasons it will develop, and not enough reasons to believe it won't...

FORWARD SPEED THE KEY...but that, of course, isn't telling anyone anything they don't already know.

anyone know if a stall is possible.?.....the way this thing has behaved....the last thing I am looking at is the computer models...just take a look at the whole picture, like Joe B does....



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
That's it for me..........
      #5135 - Tue Sep 24 2002 08:08 AM

I think this trough could pull him more East. I'm going to work today and then I'm going to BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES! This is scary.

SirCane in Pensacola



--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Re: That's it for me..........
      #5136 - Tue Sep 24 2002 08:14 AM

I was just looking at the latest loop of Izzy and it sure looks like he has stalled again. The first few frames show him moving off of land at a pretty good clip but then the last few frames he looks like he just stopped. This front coming through saved us here in Texas but if Izzy has stalled than he will likely push further east than expected. Here is a "wishcast".....wouldn't it be cool if Izzy stalled and missed the trough and then somehow decided to take a mad dash for Mexico? I know, there is NO way that would happen, but that is why it is called "wishcasting".

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Mike
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 40
Loc: Port St. John, Fla
Lili info
      #5137 - Tue Sep 24 2002 08:15 AM

From the NWS in Melbourne: EXTENDED...GFS MODEL PREVIOUSLY INDICATED THE FIRST COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR SUN. BUT AS EXPECTED IT IS PULLING BACK ON THIS
FORECAST. STILL A BIT TOO EARLY FOR A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
MODEL FORECASTS LILI TO TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
AHEAD OF THIS WEAKENING TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT EACH RUN
BRINGS IT CLOSER AND CLOSER TO FL.

From the NWS in Miami: EXTENDED...ISIDORE WILL FINALLY (I HOPE) BE HISTORY BY THIS TIME.
THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAY TEMPORARILY BUILD SOUTHWEST
INTO OUR AREA AND WE MAY SEE A MUCH DRIER WEATHER PATTERN OVER EAST
COAST SECTIONS THU AND FRI. BUT WAIT...LILI MAY HAVE A SURPRISE IN
STORE FOR US AS THE NEW GUIDANCE HAVE THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY.
WE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIB NEXT FEW DAYS.


If Izzy holds true and Lili does what the models think then FEMA could be very busy come this weekend.

It will be very interesting to see all three storms interreact.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Shawn
      #5138 - Tue Sep 24 2002 08:25 AM

I agree that for the last 30 minutes of the IR loop the center does not appear to be moving as much as it was.... however to me the entire system still looks to be creeping northward or so ...

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
tom5r
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 49
Loc: Islamorada, Florida
Re: Lili info
      #5139 - Tue Sep 24 2002 08:32 AM

Mike,
What a concept...a crossfire hurricane, Jumping Jack Flash.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Opal, and others
      #5140 - Tue Sep 24 2002 09:05 AM

The main difference I see in Isidore from the other systems is a difference in stages. All of the rapidly strengthening systems you mentioned were young and tight. To look at Isidore is to look at a middle age man. He is somewhat big and flabby. A youngster will grow stronger a whole lot faster then a flabby middle age guy. Not exactly the same when it comes to storms; but it is going to take a lot longer time for a storm like Izzy to pull together and tighten everything around the central core then a newer growing system. Yes, the energy and pressure is there. I just think that the flow and inertia of the all the flows will make it a longer road harder road for our middle age storm to tighten up the flab. Hence, no more then cat 1 minimal Cat 2 if this forecast path pans out. If Izzy idles and stalls, then stronger is definately possible if not probable, IMHO.

--------------------
Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Opal, and others
      #5141 - Tue Sep 24 2002 09:11 AM

However, look at the convection building to the SW of this system (Izzy) that seems like it will wrap more tightly toward the east, then north of the system. Give him about 6 hours and this will have the look of not a middle aged man, but one with a hot new crr and a hot new babe (mid-life crisis). Watch out for Izzy! He is serious!! CHeers!! Steve H.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Lili info
      #5142 - Tue Sep 24 2002 09:22 AM

Well folks, round 4 has started. Izzy at least made it off the coast.

All the blasted models coninue to shift ever slightly to the east. I'll stick with my NO to rickinmobile landfall. He doesn't need to play any more games, because here in FL we have women problems coming from the east. The 0Z GFDL showed JAX getting hit in 120 hrs. I feel much safer now. The 6Z shows Izzy going from 13kts to 37kts just as he makes landfall. Nuff' said.

It's been raining all morning here in Jax. Predicted to continue for at least several more days, maybe a slight break, and then????

Joe in Jax



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered




houma
      #5143 - Tue Sep 24 2002 09:32 AM

thats where im sending izzy. intensity is up in the air, dependent on how quickly a CDO reforms. we get that in 6 hours, big hurricane comes ashore. 24 hours and probably just a very weak one. landfall late thursday.
lili's latest recon got 69kt flight level winds. looks to be more aligned this morning.. guess it will be a hurricane in another 24.
kyle is ambling along. a little stronger.
disturbance near 19/40 is drifting along still, shear overhead but a little convection still going. not going to do much developing as is, but will watch it until it goes away.
anything forming off the east coast will have to do so in a hurry.
gray skies, specks of rain, easterly breeze with gusts. this reminds me of the morning Opal was coming. but this isnt an Opal just yet.
HF 1334z24september


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Just lookin....
      #5144 - Tue Sep 24 2002 10:21 AM

The center of circ of Izzy is just east of 90 W...most of the models have it west of 90 west (about 91 to 93W) right now...so watch for either a westerly jog or a slight eastward track shift.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 354
Loc: Southeast, FL
Kyle
      #5145 - Tue Sep 24 2002 10:44 AM

intersting note from joe bastardi he saids kyle is gonna come down sw then stall a bit then try to come sw even more next week???? he pointed an arrow into the southern bahamas on his meto map disco.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Re: Just lookin....
      #5146 - Tue Sep 24 2002 10:47 AM

Jason, did you notice the minor change in NHC track at 11:00? Moved track through center GOM about 50 miles east, but impact point exactly the same as 0500 hr forecast?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Just lookin....
      #5147 - Tue Sep 24 2002 10:48 AM

Latest GOES vis indicates that Izzy is at 22.0N and 89.96W (my estimated position).... System still moving slowly off to the NNW.... center is a little bit easier to find than earlier this morning.... As Jason stated, this is a little east of where most of the models forecasted the system to be at this time, also I think it is off (but not as much) as to its projected latitude position for this time, maybe 1 degree lag...
main thing is that it is still moving... this might all add up to a little more shift to the east...maybe


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Just lookin....
      #5148 - Tue Sep 24 2002 10:51 AM

One thing I did notice was Tampa showing up in strike probabilities after a long absence, indicating some kind of an eastward bias. Not that Tampa is very likely. Only minor. But read between the lines. I think they are just being conservative and holding off to see if there is going to be enough westward motion. If not soon, I would expect the track to start shifting right with the next advisory.

--------------------
Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
For the record...
      #5149 - Tue Sep 24 2002 10:53 AM

Check out the early morning visibles. It looks much better than it does on IR. Let's see if it gets cranking. Bastardi continues with his idea that the storm will semi-stall today as it is influenced by the Yucatan Peninsula and is calling for landfall Thursday Night in Louisiana. Several of the models have maintained this track and it's likely to hold. I still think landfall in MS, but it's not going to Big Bend, Tampa or Lake City. FUGETABAHDIT.

Iz is for one of us between 87-91W.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: For the record...
      #5150 - Tue Sep 24 2002 11:04 AM

11AM NHC advisory puts the center of Isidore at 22.1N, 90.0W....but looking at the latest visible satellite image (13:45 UTC), it is obvious that the center is still south of that point. Placing the cursor over the clearly defined center on the zoomed-in image gives a reading of 21.8N, 89.95W...not a huge difference, but I don't think this storm is yet moving along as fast as the latest advisory would have us believe.

Lou


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Just lookin....
      #5151 - Tue Sep 24 2002 11:09 AM

Jax/Savannah also show up and forecast shows a NE move thru the southeast. Their far from making a firm call, TS warnings all the way to Destin.......

Joe in JAX


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: For the record...
      #5152 - Tue Sep 24 2002 11:11 AM

Steve, I agree.... I'm still going with 50 miles either side of 90W....

another fact... it now has winds up to 60 mph... I think this is way ahead of the strengthening forecast models by several hours...

gotta love it provided it doesn't get any stronger than a weak Cat 2... Hey, I've been in strong Cat 2 storms and they got a lot more kick than some people are giving them credit for..


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Lookin at Lili
      #5153 - Tue Sep 24 2002 11:13 AM

The latest visible loop shows that Lili is not as healthy as the NHC advisories seem to report ( has winds up to 70mph). The center is still out-running the convection with the left half of the storm consisting of little more than low-level clouds. However, the LLC itself does not appear to be exposed & the forward speed HAS slowed somewhat, so Lili might intensify. That central pressure of 1004mb is certainly not indicative of a 70 mph system.

Lou


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: For the record...
      #5154 - Tue Sep 24 2002 11:21 AM

Recmon... I see the same thing as you, actually saw it about an hour earlier... my opinion is that we might have a stacking problem with Izzy.. the actual LLC and mid level centers are not stacked as neatly as they should and it is possible IMO that the center you reference is actually the MLC... as the MLC might be trailing the LLC... my opinion for what its worth...

recon obiously would have a much better fix on the LLC than trying to find the center with vis in this case


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
usufruct
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 7
Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5156 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:05 PM

So, Hurricane Fans, when was the last time three storms were forcaste likely to become hurricanes in one day? Although I'll admit it's a bit of stretch to say so, Florida could have hurricanes approaching from three directions over a one week period affecting first West Florida, then South Florida, then possibly Central Florida. I know, unlikely, but for the first time I can remember, the possibility is there.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
IKL
      #5157 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:12 PM

isidore.. center is mostly low clouds. maybe daytime heating will start some convection near the core, and the upward forcing by the storm will start the snowball rolling again. as the discussion says, southern main rainband is still in the BOC, once that clears it should mark the latest time intensification should begin. once the CDO is established isidore should begin to recover fairly quickly. btw agree models have a westward bias, but not much of one. more and more confident impact point will be se louisiana.
lili.. 1006mb and 70mph.. unusual wind pressure relationship, but there is recon info with 76kt flight level winds to confirm this intensity. westward motion still slowing.. only a couple more mph and the deepening curve should steepen. interesting that in the long range even if this storm comes up east of florida, it could either head for nc or get caught if ridging builds back quickly enough.
kyle.. near the end of the forecast period supposed to be slowing down and maybe bending left of its path. basically agree with bastardi that kyle is stuck and should be meandering for quite some time, working its way westward. yesterday's mrf had an eastward moving wave in the subtropics near the bahamas on october 3-4.. which may represent kyle. around that time the eastern u.s. is supposed to be under deep, strong ridging.. but this is 10 days into the future and not reliable.
got a feeling that we'll have one more development before september is out. even with all the crowding going on.
HF 1614z24september


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Lili is There
      #5158 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:25 PM

She is still be affected by the ULL to her SSW which is disrupting her appearance currently. She should be passing that later tonight and should organize in a hurry tomorrow. This is gonna track a bit further west than the track shown by the NHC. Like HF said, even if further east, may get a "sympathetic" ridge to push it back west courtesy of Kyle. Izzy is still sitting pretty much over the same general location he has been for the past few hours. That is not good. He's dipping his toe in the water to get oriented and will be ready to intensify as soon as he shoves off. More time over water is not a good thing. Moderte cat 2 IMO before landfall. If you've ever been in a large storm such as this you'll be surprised at the power a big cat 2 can give you. There is a lot of inertia with this storm and you will be feeling it well before it arrives. If he manages to get to cat 3 look out, ya get a lot more damage witha large storm. Cheers!! Steve H.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Lili is There
      #5159 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:46 PM

One thing Izzy is not is moving NNW at 8mph.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Lili is There
      #5160 - Tue Sep 24 2002 01:43 PM

Another thing about large storms is that they soften up the ground with all of the rain prior to the winds. This will cause many more trees to fall and put more prople inland in danger.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Lili is There
      #5161 - Tue Sep 24 2002 02:03 PM

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST

At this rate he'll hit MS in a week.....

A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

The dreaded "is expected" comes up in a forecast again.....



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Warnings and Watches
      #5162 - Tue Sep 24 2002 02:18 PM

Help y'all !? I'm confused. Last update has Izzy STILL going basically due north at lon 89.9 yet the hurricane watch area only goes to Pascagoula at around, what, lon 88.3 ish? That sure seems like an awful narrow margin for error, eye wobble, direction change or drift, etc. When is this expected north-west turn supposed to happen ? Is it even going to happen?? Or, will the hurricane watch (warning??) maybe be posted further over at the 5pm update ??

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Warnings and Watches
      #5163 - Tue Sep 24 2002 02:36 PM

i think the warning/watch may go to the east a little unless izzy moves to the west a little before the 5 advisory comes out. i with you in that it appears to be moving more to the north than the models are showing. notice it has slowed down also. a stronger storm???

Edited by andy1tom (Tue Sep 24 2002 02:38 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Dummies at the NWS reset the storm totals!
      #5164 - Tue Sep 24 2002 02:39 PM

We were between 1-3" in SE LA so far. They reset the counter @ 12:51pm today. Now all of SE LA, SE MS and SW AL have gotten between 0" and .6" of rain. I'll tell you this: there's no flooding downtown, but it hasn't stopped raining yet today. Here's my personal update:

I found out from Jefferson Parish School Board that schools are closed tomorrow and Thursday. I talked to my dad and offered to help him bring in all the crap that's in his yard and garage. He tried to say, "nah", but then again, due to back problems, he's not supposed to lift anything greater than 20 pounds to begin with. I talked to my wife who reminded me that I needed a carton of cigarettes. Oh yeah - can't be without 'dem smokes if push comes to shove. Other than that, we're all set. I don't see a massive tidal flooding event no matter how strong Izzy becomes, so I'm not worrying about an axe. If need be, I'll bum one off my dad today for the roof just in case. Otherwise, we've got most of our supplies - batteries, beer, flashlights, beer, snacks, beer, etc. so we're good to go.

Hope you're all set too!

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Dummies at the NWS reset the storm totals!
      #5165 - Tue Sep 24 2002 02:45 PM

That reset may have been a mode change from standard precip to tropical mode. I seem to recall hearing that the mode switch resets the storm totals.

--------------------
Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Warnings and Watches
      #5166 - Tue Sep 24 2002 02:57 PM

My two cents worth is this:

1)The forecast models have shifted back slighty to the west. No matter what you may actually see happening in the short term, and since he's really more stalled then anything else, they won't change their longterm(48-72hrs) forecast untill the models (which have been terrible with this storm) move one way or the other. They have been going in an east-west cycle for the last week. So don't expect any changes at 5, but maybe at 11. Look, at 5:00 PM Sunday, when they changed their tune and raelly started calling for a northward turn, they said that in 48hrs, or 5:00 PM to today he'd be at 22.3N,92.7W. It was only off by 200 miles .Izzy really, really doe not need to be compared to any other storm; he's been doing things his own way the whole time, and he has no respect for history IMHO.

2) Politics now comes into play. Any changes in the watches and warnings will cause local goverments to step up or step down their preps. These things cost money, and could cause evacs that may not be needed.They more than likely feel that with TS warnings(not a watch) their covered, at least for the moment. Watch Lili, if she starts that classic turn into the Bahama's, send Florida into a panic. When Floyd came by, the whole southern part of the state jamed I95 and turned it into a parking lot. Even if we had wanted to leave here in NE FL we could't, there was no way out.

Joe in JAX


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Warnings and Watches
      #5167 - Tue Sep 24 2002 03:11 PM

I don't even want to get into the "politics." Politics had me calling for the head of the past NHC Director. Saw the current one on TV the other day saying "politics will not come into play in our warnings." I will take them at their word for now. I don't see an indications of under warning right now. I am one of the first to go off on a blatent underwarning like some of the South Florida systems in the last few years. I think what they have up now is prudent and flexible.

--------------------
Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5168 - Tue Sep 24 2002 03:26 PM

For about the last hour Isadore appears to be moving
to the northeast.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8conus.html


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5169 - Tue Sep 24 2002 03:32 PM

STORMS STARTING AROUND CENTER

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Warnings and Watches
      #5170 - Tue Sep 24 2002 03:32 PM

The best example of politics getting involved was Bertha. Gov. Chiles, after hearing the NHC say "a turn to the north is expected" for 36 hrs, but not happen, told them if they didn't issue a hurricane warning for FL, he'd do it on his own. They did, Bertha turned(but right on the coastline), and everybody(down here) was OK. But they scared the crap out of alot people by holding off so long. I would always rather be on the safe side, but it's too early to say something has changed enough with Izzy to issue a wider watch area. I think their OK right now.

Joe in JAX


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: Warnings and Watches
      #5171 - Tue Sep 24 2002 03:42 PM

That is a classic story about Chiles. Forecaster Garcia at key West wrote and awesome discussion at 3 AM as Irene was coming in and said it has to come into the Keys/South Florida due to the setup which was in the face of NHC at the time as they had it up the West Coast. I call the owner of my company and say call off work or you will be letting people go at noon anyway..he said you are crazy, schools are open, etc. I said..you trust local government more than me..work was called off...I was the hero around the office as it was mayham in sofla that afternoon and our employees were high and dry and more importantly the owner was too. Guess who makes the decisions about closing the office now? Guess whose office is a beehive of activity around hurricane time?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Isidore and Lili
      #5172 - Tue Sep 24 2002 03:43 PM

Isidore: He is starting to strengthen again, as evidenced by the convection building around the center of the circulation and the rainbands intensifying NE of the center. Should be a hurricane in 24-36 hours. I'm still thinking further E of where NHC is forecasting lanfall, I'd go with Alabama/Florida border. Low category 2 looks good at landfall...effects will be felt from Isidore for a couple hundred miles. Everybody will get something from Isidore.

Lili: This is another problematic storm. Recon finds that the winds keep getting higher and higher, but the pressure stays the same or goes up slightly. This may be because of the upper-level low to the S and SE of Lili, but she will be moving away from this feature soon. Should intensify to around 80-90 knots. Pressure should start to fall as well. I'm thinking Florida is going to get quite a threat from her, but perhaps not a direct hit. Lili is getting larger at this point and I'm thinking she will be pretty big by the time she nears Florida. I agree with NHC forecast through 72 hours. After that, she will probably crawl NW or NNW towards S. Florida. She will be knocked down by interaction with Cuba, but she should strengthen right back up. Best bet at this point...Lili moves north parallel to Florida EC with winds of 80-90 knots and intensifies slowly. Expect to feel some pretty strong effects...but don't expect direct hit at this time...although any west movement could put her onshore.

The media is going to go ape #!@$ here...two storms with a day or two apart. One makes landfall just west of Florida and then a classic storm going through the Bahamas perhaps. Going to be a busy late-week and weekend.

Bucs 26 and Rams 14. Kurt Warner...4 interceptions. Marshall Faulk gets a neck injury. Need I say more? Bucs are only going to get better...

Kevin


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
About the "Appears to be heading NE"...
      #5173 - Tue Sep 24 2002 03:50 PM

I see it in that loop, but put on the gridlines:

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurr.html

If that ain't stationary or drift due north, I'll - nevermind, I've had my fill of hats this week.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Kevin - I disagree on Lili...
      #5174 - Tue Sep 24 2002 03:55 PM

As of now, I'm seeing probably a west coast of FL storm or even a N FL storm. I don't see her paralelling the east coast unless some effect from Kyle forces her up.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Izzy and Lizzy...err Lili
      #5175 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:03 PM

Isidore: I am going to stick with Al/MS border, no reason to change now. Still say cat 1 marginal cat 2.

Lili: Roll the dice. Just hope we don't crap out. The scenarios are all so close right now. A curve somewhere around Florida seems logical to me. However, history has my gut saying lili will follow in Isidores footsteps to Western Cuba and the GOM. Not sure what kind of interaction Lili will have with kyle. Hopefully, the situation will be clearer in 24-48 hours.

--------------------
Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5176 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:04 PM

THE VISIBLE LOOP LOOKS LIKE A CAT 4 ROTATON WILD THIS STORM IS GOING TO GET STRONG FAST HE IS PULLING EVERTHING IN FAST SOULD BE HURR SOON

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Kevin - I disagree on Lili...
      #5177 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:04 PM

Well Isidore looks to be moving slowly N or NNE per latest vis loop. Looks as though it is slowly strengthing as bands begin to wrap back around the center. Well my north FL landfall (Apalachicola) maybe a bust? Still think panhandle has a chance at this for sure. Look for it be a CAT 2 at best when it makes landfall (100mph or so). As Isidore makes landfall Thursday or so Lili will be ready to take its turn NW towards FL? My bet is it will at least get very close to florida if not lanfall but again depends on front moving down this way this weekend.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: About the "Appears to be heading NE"...
      #5178 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:05 PM

That's what I think, too. He is doing one thing: buying himself a little time to get cranked up again.

I am begining to get a little more confident that Lili WILL NOT BE a GOM problem. Too many signs that she will turn almost due NW in three days. Cuba ends up getting hit on both ends
in less than two weeks. Some people have all the luck

Joe in Jax
Jags say Jets don't float very well, 2-1 after this week.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Joe
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
Re: Kevin - I disagree on Lili...
      #5179 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:05 PM

Last post was posted by me.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Kevin - I disagree on Lili...
      #5180 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:20 PM

I could certainly understand what you mean, but the front moving down simply won't allow Lili a direct route into the GOMEX. However, I can't rule out that if Lili threatens EC Florida, the ridging from Kyle would force her over the peninsula and into the GOMEX. I don't see that occuring at this point, but it is a possibility. The weather is hard to predict, talk about fickleness and uncertainty.

Kevin


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Agree on slight NNE drift for Isidore last few frames...
      #5181 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:33 PM

I've go him at 22.3, 89.78 as of the 19:15UTC visible picture.

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Kevin - I disagree on Lili...
      #5182 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:36 PM

Izzy drifting east.
Recon found the center @ 22.18n 89.42w
Due east of last update.
Don't think Florida is out of the woods yet.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Kevin - I disagree on Lili...
      #5183 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:37 PM

607
URNT12 KNHC 241932
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/1932Z
B. 22 DEG 18 MIN N
89 DEG 42 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1306 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 156 DEG 54 KT
G. 048 DEG 125 NM
H. 988 MB
I. 17 C/ 1514 M
J. 19 C/ 1525 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF977 2710A ISIDORE OB 11
MAX FL WIND 54 KT NE QUAD 1851Z.



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Agree on slight NNE drift for Isidore last few frames...
      #5184 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:43 PM

Anon,

That is actually 29.3N 89.7W...there are 60 minutes in each degree, so 18 minutes north is approximately 0.3 degrees north, same for the longitude.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Agree on slight NNE drift for Isidore last few frames...
      #5185 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:47 PM

I'm very limited in posting time (at work). Perhaps someone could provide more detail?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Kevin - I disagree on Lili...
      #5186 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:47 PM

048 in direction? that is NNE, no?

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Kevin - I disagree on Lili...
      #5187 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:54 PM

030 NNE
045 NE
060 ENE


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5188 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:59 PM

isidore is moving more to the east.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Kevin - I disagree on Lili...
      #5189 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:59 PM

Does anyone have the feeling that the NHC forecast track for izzy may be shifted east? at least the watches should proabably since the storm is so large winds will be felt far away from the center. Look at all the dry air on w/v the storm cant go anymore west i dont think. so what do u all think??

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
I agree.......
      #5190 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:04 PM

It's looking more NNE. Folks in Mobile- Destin need to stay on it.

I sure am.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
One girl against two guys?
      #5191 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:04 PM

As I look out my window and watch another rain band move by, and now that my boss just called to tell me not to come into work tomorrow(I work outside) , NHC is forecasting Lili to be a classic coast runner. But unlike most of the others that come this way, some butthead named Kyle is sitting out there, ready to start playing bully, and maybe give her a cheap shot, or not let her turn all the way back out. Isn't this a great time of the year?

Joe in JAX


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: One girl against two guys?
      #5192 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:20 PM

SirCane i live in Gulf Breeze across the bridge. Well if we go under a watch later I aint going to school. I think Mobile should watch out they seem like a prime target right now. I have never been in a hurricane an why i am not hoping this storm comes my way it'll be a new expirenece for me so i am not wishcasting. Lets here some more from rick in mobile. haha

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
It's moving NE...
      #5193 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:22 PM

and if we don't see a west vector, and I mean pretty quick, we are gonna see a Panhandle landfall...the model tracks all called for Izzy to get to about 92-93W...there's gonna have to be a serious west vector change for that to happen.

Beven is a good forecaster, but a little close to the vest...Let's just say I am gonna have an interesting weathercast in about 40 mins...the tracks are gonna HAVE to shift east...



--------------------
Jason Kelley


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: One girl against two guys?
      #5194 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:26 PM

Right Joe. Isidore is something that everybody in the central/eastern GOMEX need to keep eyes on. His effects will be felt well east...and Melbourne mentioned the possibility of rotating storms with Isidore.

After that, our attention must turn immediately to Lili. The ridge between the two (produced by Kyle) will likely materialize. Should allow Lili to move due north along the Florida EC, perhaps even bump her slightly inland. I'm thinking the ridge could get her very close or right at category 3 status. Looks like trouble if nothing weird happen to her in the next 48 hours.

Kevin


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: It's moving NE...
      #5195 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:27 PM

Jason what are u guessing the intensity may be? I am thinking it may be near 90mph i dont really know though. here is a guess cat1 - cat2 somwhere between there? can u please help me i'd appreciate it.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: It's moving NE...
      #5196 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:28 PM

Whew ! Well JK, I'm glad I'm not the ONLY one who thinks the warnings should be east of where they are..... but I guess they're gonna wait until the 11pm to do that ? Or, worse yet, the 5am tomorrow ??

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: It's moving NE...
      #5197 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:29 PM

Correct Jason. Isidore is just a tad shy of 90W...models at 92-93, no way that will happen without a westerly component to the motion very soon. Tick...tick...tick, the track is just waiting to be shifted east.

Kevin


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: It's moving NE...
      #5198 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:30 PM

I'm thinking strong Cat 1 at this point...but cat 2 isn't out of the picture at this point.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: It's moving NE...
      #5199 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:31 PM

Panhandle landfall would also give Izzy that much more time over the water. Worse-case senerios are spinning counter-clockwise in my head as Lili comes at FL. Much like the Gulf coast, we are getting poured on in the sunshine state. Rain alone could be a big story here. Some places are over 5 in of rain today, with a 100% chance of the wet stuff tomorrow. Fun!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MelbDave
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
Loc: St Petersburg, FL
Re: It's moving NE...
      #5200 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:37 PM

Jason..
Is there any way to link to your stations website and watch your weathercast? You seem much more informative than the locals in Orlando...thanx...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: It's moving NE...
      #5201 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:39 PM

Unfortunately no...we used to delay stream the newscast, but we stopped that a while back...

At any rate, feel free to ask me whatever comes to mind...I'll answer as best I can and have time to...


--------------------
Jason Kelley


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: It's moving NE...
      #5202 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:39 PM

Hi , I was hoping for the west forecast. LOL My Mom is in town,Gulf Breeze ( Pensacola Area) . She is debating on changing her flight back home (from PNS, Atlanta then west)on Thursday to Wensday morning. I don't think any option looks good. Any guess on when and if they would shut the airports around here down?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: It's moving NE...
      #5203 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:47 PM

Unless I'm reading this wrong, recon found pressure of 986MB, a drop of two. Izzy writes his own book, for sure.

Joe in JAX


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: It's moving NE...
      #5204 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:49 PM

You are correct...I found that pretty interesting myself...

Gonna make an interesting case study for the next gen of mets, to be sure...



--------------------
Jason Kelley


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lorraine
Unregistered




Re: It's moving NE...
      #5205 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:57 PM

Jason,
Hi, my name is Lorraine.
Would you mind answering a question from an ignoramus? If Izzy does move more to the east, what can people in the central Florida area expect from the storm? We're in Winter Haven, which is right in between Orlando and Tampa - I believe we're southwest central Florida.
Thanks!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: It's moving NE...
      #5206 - Tue Sep 24 2002 06:02 PM

Well, I don't think it will move due east...there is gonna have to be some north component no matter what...

You guys will probably get more rain...totals of maybe 2 inches or so, and some east/se breezes...15-20 or so.



--------------------
Jason Kelley


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: It's moving NE...
      #5207 - Tue Sep 24 2002 06:03 PM

I see no real motion at all. I have been telling everyone around my office since before Izzy hit Cuba that Pascagoola was the prime target. I am not changing my mind now. The warning will have to go up much further east. New Orleans should be the western most point and Panama City the eastern one. Still think Izzy will strengthen more than anticipated. I would say around 105-115 at landfall.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5208 - Tue Sep 24 2002 06:11 PM

nhc discussion still showin 90's in longitude it;ll never see them. think they will shift at 11.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Stmwtcher
Unregistered




Re: It's moving NE...
      #5209 - Tue Sep 24 2002 06:11 PM

As I've been watching the cloud patterns, I can't see how Isidore will move west or due North. I think NE over the big bend area of Florida. Unless he develops a lot of clouds in a day or so, it will be a fairly dry storm by the time it makes land fall. Any opinions?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: It's moving NE...
      #5210 - Tue Sep 24 2002 06:20 PM

I dont think the storm will get that strong maybe 90mph or so give or take maybe 10mph. There will be gust probably about 100 or 110 maybe. for some reason it doesnt look to be organizing like i thought it would anyone got an idea?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: It's moving NE...
      #5211 - Tue Sep 24 2002 06:25 PM

I think we will see Izzy start to organize again quite soon - 12 hrs. You can already see this organization from the most recent satellite pix.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: It's moving NE...
      #5212 - Tue Sep 24 2002 06:33 PM

That, plus the 2 mb pressure drop gives signs that things are getting together....we should begin to see convection firing near the center soon (which we need...to track this thing on IR at night).

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
RickinMobile
Unregistered




izzyinmobile
      #5213 - Tue Sep 24 2002 06:50 PM

I'm BAAACK...
suprised at how slow it is moving. guess what?....plenty of time to get his act together. plenty. not sure, though, if a slow movement north doesn't throw everything in an uproar as far as models go...

still looking for a cat 4-5 at landfall...nothing detracts me from that...

anyone notice how LARGE this system is?....taking up the entire gulf of mexico....appears to me to be moving quite slowly though...the forecasters had predicted much faster movement...if izzy moves like this for 24 more hours...then consider.....isn't that enough time for it to "get over" it's effects from land?...sure...plus...it will throw out the models considering a more westerly landfall in Louisiana...

if it lingers enough...look out Florida..

prediction....ho hum...
cat 4-5 Mobile, Alabama...or nearenoughthereofto give me a headache...

Lilly comes in about 4 days later...same spot..

you heard it from me first....


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: izzyinmobile
      #5214 - Tue Sep 24 2002 06:56 PM

Okaaaaaaaaaaay RickinMobile ! They just flashed across the screen that Mobile Co. Public Schools are cancelled for tomorrow. Do you work for the schoolboard by any chance ?? Alright, I'll concede to the fact that, yes, Mobile will get some bad weather outta this but another direct hit here much less a cat 4 or 5 is OUT OF THE QUESTION. (I hope !)

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: izzyinmobile
      #5215 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:00 PM

I guess i'll stick with Jason's prediction of cat one or near cat2 storm haha. sorry rick. Jason, how sure are u that this storm will get to hurricane force. I guess its anyones guess but i would like your opinion or anyone else who has a comment?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rickinmobile
Unregistered




Opal
      #5216 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:03 PM

Opal was a cat 5...due to hit us in 12 hours...you can imagine how excited I was...I was freaking...filled the bathtubs with water..ran around like a chicken with my head cut off....almost in panick mode...cause I had been through a 3...but this was a 5!...

guess what...it veered right..hit Pensacola...and since we were on the wimp side of the storm...we got 40-60 mph winds...TOPS...

I say this for two reasons...who knows?...NOONE..I only say Mobile cause I live here...PERIOD>....though I have a wierd feeling....

but...Joe Bastardi indicated this one would tighten up at landfall...so a 2 would tighten to a 3...etc....because it would hit at a 90 degree angle...and other reasons...PLUS..the darned thing is so large...Opal was a minnie me...compared to this....

I just have no doubt it will blossom back and every 2x4, flashlight, and battery will be gone by tomorrow night...

it is raining hard here and has been ......very tropical...oughta soften up the ground so that all these beautiful oak trees we have get ruined...pushed over....do I want this storm.?...no...no one does...but someday...someone on this coast is gonna get the big one...

could be NOW....


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Wisconsin
Re: izzyinmobile
      #5217 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:03 PM

Talk about "wishcasting"!!!!!!????? Sheesh, you guys!!!

What I see is the convection in the entire ne quad being ripped away. Sure, it can close up with the remaining energy, but it has to rebuild from scratch, now.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
capesanblasfl
Unregistered




question for Jason
      #5218 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:22 PM

Hi Jason, have a question for you or anyone else that cares to answer.
I got a call today and the delivery truck is scheduled to deliver my furniture to Cape San Blas on Thursday morning! Yuck! They will not reschedule it knowing the threat of hurricane Izzy. (truck is coming out of state), so we are heading out of Atl tomorrow to be there in time. What kind of mess am I coming into? I saw on TWC that they shifted the forecast a little east. This is making me a little worried. I have a feeling I am going to get down there and have to go through this and still not meet the furniture truck.
This will be my 1st hurricane. How well does Gulf county handle the large amounts of rainfall? Any areas that tend to flood quickly? What mandates an evacuation in the Cape San Blas area?
Thanks for any help,
Marcie


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: question for Jason
      #5219 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:25 PM

Frankly, If I were you, I'd tell them to reschedule, or CANCEL the order. I just wouldn't be putting new furnature into a place that is likely to be damaged at about the same time as the delivery is supposed to occur.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: question for Jason
      #5220 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:31 PM

You'll be fairly wet and miserable, but there shouldn't be too much of a flooding problem, if a significant eastward shift of the track doesn't occur (which, realistically, doesn't look that likely....but it is something to monitor)...just get the tarps out and watch for standing water and you should be OK.

I don't see a need for evacs around our area at this point unless something SERIOUSLY changes...could happen, but unlikely.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Re: question for Jason
      #5221 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:34 PM

I personally do not see the NE movement that everyone is talking about. I see the clouds being blown off to the NE but the actual center looks to be pretty much stationary. They are calling for some rain here in the Houston area but I don't think it will happen.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




The Cape and Florida...
      #5222 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:37 PM

You gotta remember that Florida SOIl is some of the sandiest stuff around. It drains better than almost anywhere else. It drains so well sometimes, it even forms its own sinkholes

Anyway, we're about to get hit with another decent band. Winds have been 15-25 all day, I estimate about 2" of rain, and it hasn't stopped since morning.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml

Steve (the unlogged in variety!!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
caneman
Unregistered




Re: question for Jason
      #5223 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:44 PM

Guys, Am I missing something here? It sure doesn't look impressive to me and pretty doubtful it will even re-gain Cane status. Looks to be a Giant rainmaker from LA. to Fla. and points North.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
where are we...?
      #5224 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:44 PM

isidore: hasnt changed much today. inner core is bare, convection is all in bands 200 miles away. no significant changes until CDO starts to redevelop, and i cant predict when that will happen. it SHOULD happen at some point, but the later it does, the weaker the storm. notice NHC official intensity at landfall keeps getting lower and lower.
track philosophy.. still staying with southeast louisiana. not going away from that until it's obviously headed northeast. it has jogged that way a couple of times but headed generally north.
lili: too much hype already. i keep hearing east coast of florida and such. still not entirely sure it is going to hold together.. in spite of its intensification the system is elongated per recon reports, and still getting sheared fairly heavily. the orientation of the shear is changing.. so in all sensible logic the storm should begin to finally organize.. but still uncertain. NHC track is finally shifting to the south in the short term.. but i'm south in the long term. think jamaica a more likely target than haiti. the bastardi idea that this doesnt come up, but cuts off near the florida straits.. is what im going to go with. i sort of saw it crossing the caribbean and coming up behind isidore, but looks like the post isidore ampification should stay north and just stall it or something. lots of land interaction possible, making an intensity forecast is useless.
kyle: should slowly keep working south and west. it's cut off behind a mean ridge, and when that ridge is strong it will be driven along the periphery. by the way NHC has been too low with intensity, this system is a hurricane as we speak. of course, in a year of 954mb tropical storms i dont expect them to come that close.
nothing else in the basin threatening. mrf in the long range has some western caribbean suggestions, but still waiting for more verification on the synoptic pattern, and any potential spark system that would be needed there.
HF 2346z24september


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Wisconsin
Re: question for Jason
      #5225 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:50 PM

The remains of Izzy will not see cat2 again. The CDO will be hard to recover. Just my humble opinion.

The floor is open for gloom and doom rebuttals.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: The Cape and Florida...
      #5226 - Tue Sep 24 2002 07:53 PM

Steve, same up the coast. We getting hit with a blob of rain from the south, that combined for about an hour with another band off the ocean. It's steady now, but we got over an inch just in that one hour. Flood watch, flash flood warning, ect. We may get a break for about 1-2 hours in a little bit, then next batch starts up. Raining almost all afternoon, no end in sight,yet. Driveway's pretty full, but the ground is handling the water OK. Winds 15-20 mph. Just the start of a looooong week of this stuff. Drought? Can't even remember what the word means...........

Joe in JAX


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Wisconsin
Re: The GFDL models
      #5227 - Tue Sep 24 2002 08:02 PM

It really ticks me off that the GFDL models show different results depending on which storm you spotlight. That tells me that they are running old or outdated data on some models. What else could cause the discrepancy? Pbbbfffttt!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Yo Jo...
      #5228 - Tue Sep 24 2002 08:07 PM

One thing we'll all remember Isidore for is the sphere of effect it has. Never before have I seen a storm that simultaneously affected Jacksonville to Lake Charles. That's literally 700 miles and pretty hard to believe. I figured Galveston to Tally, but I was about 150 miles too far west with the influence. Still, this is a pretty incredible. And when you consider that even Miami and the Bahamas have a bit of feed coming in, that's unheard of - not to mention Mexico, Belize and Guatemala and even an extension out into the East Pac that may develop on it's own, WOW.

Tropical storms are sometimes far weirder than hurricanes.

Steve


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: The GFDL models
      #5229 - Tue Sep 24 2002 08:13 PM

Don't get me started on the GFDL. When everything else points to Lili turning north, it runs her into Central America, then on the next run it hit N FL.That model is seriously tweaked, and part of the Axis of Evil.

I have noticed while there is no convection around the center of Izzy, he is trying to pull up a band from SE. He might end up close enough to it to regain Cat1 by this time tomorrow. Anyway, the further he pulls away from the Yucatan, the more likely he tighten up a bit. With all this energy I can't see him being a dry storm when he hits.

Joe in JAX


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
alan
Unregistered




Re: where are we...?
      #5231 - Tue Sep 24 2002 08:14 PM

Ok, here's a question.

The same trough that is supposed to turn Isidore due north for the next two days is supposed to be so far south as to turn Lili shortly thereafter.
If this trough is going to be moving through and past Florida before Saturday, why wouldn't the trough push Isidore even further east?
I mean, is Isidore going to bust through the trough as it moves past her?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5232 - Tue Sep 24 2002 08:22 PM

neal frank said at 5pm on the world news this thing could grow fast to a cat 3 before land fall dont be shocked

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Evening all
      #5233 - Tue Sep 24 2002 08:24 PM

Been watching the IR loop and a couple of observations. Izzy is still moving basically due north... Off to the north and NW of the center of circulation there are some new small but deep areas convection developing... although not at the center, this is the first really new convection generated throughout the day ... if this convection starts to wrap around the center then we may see some strengthening....

System has looked ragged all day, but really BIG... see size doesn't matter... hehe... YEAH RIGHT..

On the MS coast we've had basically the same sort of weather that Steve has experienced.... took a lot longer to get home from work however as all the bridges were up for extended periods as a parade of boats headed inland for safe harbor...

Waiting till tomorrow to decide if to board up... goes off to east, boards not required... hopefully it will go more east and save me about 6 hours work....



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Wisconsin
Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5234 - Tue Sep 24 2002 08:34 PM

Neal Frank!!!!.... That cat's forgotten more than I'll ever know!

I'm not worthy!
I'm not worthy!

LOL


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Talk About Large
      #5235 - Tue Sep 24 2002 08:42 PM

The size of the storm is unbelievable. The high clouds on the periphery reach from Pennsylvania to Panama and the Pacific off of Mexico to the Bahamas. WOWWWWW !!!!!

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5237 - Tue Sep 24 2002 08:47 PM

Best I can tell using the GOES IR loop pyscho boy Izzy is located at 23.35N and 86.50W...

Convection still on the rise of to the NW, N and somewhat to the E and SE

Hey Cat 5 Rick, I liked old Neal Frank.... he would always get me so fired up....


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Wisconsin
Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5245 - Tue Sep 24 2002 09:05 PM

That was RickinMobile I think that said cat5, not me. I think he was kidding though!

I liked ol' Neal Frank too. I always wanted a haircut like his

I liked Dr. Bob better, though. I hated the guy between Sheets and Mayfield. He had the personality of a dropsonde


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5251 - Tue Sep 24 2002 09:27 PM

Hey Rick, sorry I should have read the city locale.... Cat 5 Rick in Mobile thinks every storm will hit Mobile as a Cat 5, he's a riot with some really funny posts... Yeah, I know he's kidding most of the time..... we just had a nice little feeder band over my house that had to drop at least .5 inches of rain...

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 1 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: ****
Topic views: 115693

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center