Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
It looked to me (a stark amateur) that the highest cloud tops had left the eye and had extended west, with some seeming to go towards the north. I dont feel so foolish having only taken down one set of window boards after .
Not sure what you mean aabout extended west - although I guess I see something that could be interpreted like that. Did you fill up with gas is a more important issue tha boards for FWB *right now*. This afternoon/tonight everything could change.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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URNT12 KNHC 271545
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/1514Z
B. 24 DEG 28 MIN N
85 DEG 06 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2650 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 130 DEG 87 KT
G. 040 DEG 44 NM
H. 949 MB
I. 12 C/ 3001 M
J. 16 C/ 3393 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C013-40
N. 1234/7
O. 1/3 NM
P. NOAA3 1312A OB 05
MAX FL WIND 87 KTS NE QUAD 1441Z
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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mbfly
Weather Guru
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Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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I heard that the pressure is UP to 949. Does this indicate an eye replacement cycle or is the dryer air it's running into actually weakening it some ?? With it being out in the open warm water where it is, I am doubtful that is would be weakening yet. Maybe when it gets closer to land (I hope) ?
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susieq
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Panhandle
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That dry air that is getting trapped between north of the storm, and now west of the storm, where will it go? Is it going to affect what happens next? I'd love to hear from a met on this...
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Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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it's been harder to track since the eye has been moving out of radar scanning distance... but the last looks and recon suggest that an eyewall replacement cycle is underway. convective symmerty has gotten shoddy since mid morning... until that smooths out and the eye becomes coherent again, looks like the hurricane will stay where it is (cat 2 by wind, cat 3 by pressure).
HF 1616z27august
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katrina watcher
Unregistered
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The movement seems to be to the west judging from looking at the overall cloud pattern.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
it's been harder to track since the eye has been moving out of radar scanning distance... but the last looks and recon suggest that an eyewall replacement cycle is underway. convective symmerty has gotten shoddy since mid morning... until that smooths out and the eye becomes coherent again, looks like the hurricane will stay where it is (cat 2 by wind, cat 3 by pressure).
HF 1616z27august
I think you mean Cat 3 by wind, Cat 4 by pressure, don't you? 115 mph is cat 3, not 2. Otherwise, I think you're right in that it will maintain current intensity for a few hours at least.
nhc is probably reluctant to drop the winds based on the pressure, but i'm sure they've sampled the hurricane a lot and 87kt is kind of slack for a cat 3 FL wind. the pressure was last measured at 949mb, which is in cat 3 range. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Aug 27 2005 12:58 PM)
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
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Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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May be it started to feel the trough to the north of it and it starting to move know more W/NW.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Since the threat level is decreasing here, I am departing for Meridian, MS to assist a sister station that is down one met for this event. I will be out of pocket all day, but should be able to give inland reports tomorrow and Monday.
To those in the path, stay safe and you are in our prayers...
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Jason Kelley
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Since the threat level is decreasing here, I am departing for Meridian, MS to assist a sister station that is down one met for this event. I will be out of pocket all day, but should be able to give inland reports tomorrow and Monday.
To those in the path, stay safe and you are in our prayers...
Travel safely, Jason! Hopefully won't turn and put PC back in danger!
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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Posts: 161
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For the Mobile area...it appears things will be ok...if you look at things...any chance this will swing back east?...still appears to be going west...maybe it will continue to do so...huh?
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heynow
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
Loc: Abbeville, LA
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I live in Abbeville, LA--about 120 miles west of New Orleans and 20 miles from the coast. Everyone around here is nervous. We had a direct hit from Lili in '02 and a semi-direct hit from Andrew in '92, so the memories are fresh. Like everyone that lives on the Gulf of Mexico, we are intently watching and hoping for the best and planning for the worst. The very worst thing would be for to directly hit New Orleans. Not only would New Orleans be destroyed, but Louisiana's economy would be immeasurably affected. And by extension, the rest of the country. New Orleans is a major port and a major pipeline of trade and commerce for the United States. You never want to wish the devastation that a hurricane wreaks on someone else, but collectively as a nation, we do not want it to hit New Orleans (although it is just a matter of time before New Orleans takes a direct hit). could be our worst nightmare.
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I've lived through Danny ('85), Juan ('85), Andrew ('92), Lili ('02), Rita ('05) and Gustav ('08).
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
For the Mobile area...it appears things will be ok...if you look at things...any chance this will swing back east?...still appears to be going west...maybe it will continue to do so...huh?
Don't bet on anything.
Jim Catore just announced that a voluntary evac order has been given for Biloxi. No one knows where it will go yet.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Rick - Anyone in the cone of error i would say is not ok.....you should be preparing now, while there is time. Shutters should be up, bags packed, car gassed up, etc... Better to be safe than sorry. I don't know why people get mad when they get evac'd and it turns out they didn't have to. Wouldn't you want to be safe than sorry? People need to get off the computer and start listening to their local outlets for instructions, evacs, routes to take, etc.....You are not going to find local info on here about that stuff.
I would hate to see people in the cone be in grave danger because they sat on their computer hoping and wishing for a shift right or left. If i lived in NO or any where close......i'd be in Texas or the Carolinas by now.
Sorry if i am preaching, but you don't want to mess with a Cat 4 or Cat 5. I wouldn't even ride one out in a shelter....but i am a wuss..LOL....i would rather stay in a motel for a day or two - at a safe distance. There are a lot of folks on here that live in that cone....please be safe and god bless.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
Edited by damejune2 (Sat Aug 27 2005 12:51 PM)
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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Posts: 125
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My boards went up yesterday morning.
It only takes me an hour and a half to do - if I do it in nice weather in the cool of the morning.
If I have to do it in 40mph squalls, then it takes a LOT longer and is a totally MISERABLE experience.
Do it now folks, while its nice out and easy. If you spend the hour or two and its for nothing, you've lost an hour. If you can't get it done for some reason, it could be your LIFE.
Do not screw around with this storm. While the models are all converged now, and have been for the last 24 hours or so, the fact remains that it can and WILL shift, and confidence is high only for a direct impact anywhere in the cone. Especially to the EAST of the impact point there will be serious problems in the areas of surge and wind. Inland the rain impact could be severe as well.
I do not consider Pensacola "out of the woods" by any means; I'm 40nm east of there, and I'm boarded up. If it appears necessary we WILL leave. I am not fooling around with this storm - and this is coming from someone who stayed for both and , right here, and didn't find either "intolerable."
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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 99
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Katrina has definitely looked ragged this morning, but the latest visible loop is darn cool. You can easily see the concentric eyewalls, probably moreso than any sat loop I've seen before. This is not wishcasting, but wouldn't it be darn cool if the inner eyewall collapsed and we ended up with a storm looking like Isabelle did with an incredibly huge and distinct eye(again, only over the open water while it is harmless)? With this particular loop you can get 30 frames with each frame separated by only 5 to 10 minutes.... again, very cool. This NASA site rocks for hurricanes threatening the US.
In addition to the eyewall replacement attempt it is also very obvious the outflow is getting better each hour. It is good to the north, but in recent hours the outflow is really beginning to shoot outward toward the southwest.
I read the posts of several people who thought had turned wnw, but that appears to have only been a wobble for now as a due west movement of the eye has resumed. The eye will be leaving the Key West radar range in the next couple hours so it is satellite only until it approaches landfall.
Visible Loop
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Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 62
Loc: Vero Beach, FL
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Jason,
Stay Dry, Stay Safe.
In our neck of FL (Indian River County on the beach), we had a quick squall this morning. 20mph wind and heavy rain for about 12 minutes. Now calm and sun.
Some of my Red Cross folks wanted to head down to Miami-Dade but i'm hoping to hold 'em here. If need be we'll release them for assignments out to MS or LA depending on what happens......
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Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I do not consider Pensacola "out of the woods" by any means; I'm 40nm east of there, and I'm boarded up. If it appears necessary we WILL leave. I am not fooling around with this storm - and this is coming from someone who stayed for both and , right here, and didn't find either "intolerable."
I won't consider myself out of the woods until is downgraded to a depression after making landfall whereever it makes landfall.
Looking at the water vapor now... it appears that the storm MAY be getting pinched in the NW section. Signs of a shift north?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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jr928
Weather Guru
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Posts: 101
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supposed to go to west coast today or tomorrow. live 2 hours from ms gulf coast. should I worry about family that far in, center to east of state?
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Based on radar a few hours ago, the eyewall replacement cycle was going on replacing a tiny, 9 NM eye with a larger one about double the radius.
However, looking at IR, WV, and Visible it appears this new eye has formed, and a 2nd, giant-eye eyewall replacement cycle has begun more then doubling the recently formed eye. Can anyone confim this? The visible is picking up a new circular pattern outside the central eye, convection (IR) and WV show a nearly completely inactive zone between the new eye and the even newer forming eyewall.
I wish this thing was inside radar range so we could see for sure.
Source: SSD Floater 1
Again, can anyone confirm what I'm seeing?
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