Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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HURRICANE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005
...KATRINA RE-ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED WESTWARD TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA AND EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA
BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER.
new watches!!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Pressure has been as low as 940... it's just rebuilding after the ... I wouldn't be surprised if the winds were in the ballpark of where they've been all day. In fact, just out... sustained winds are 100kts still...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Repeating the 4 PM CDT position...24.6 N... 85.6 W. Movement
toward...west near 7 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...115 mph. Minimum central pressure... 945 mb.
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JG
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
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Quote:
It's been mentioned that due to the distance from the tower, that radar data is at an angle that makes motion unreliable.
Take anything you ascertain from it with a large helping of NaCl 
Thank you....
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Not much movement, but at least finally the WNW (0.1N, 0.2W) that I've been seeing (or imagining on the WV) last couple hours. The vis hasn't been as obvious, but every bit north helps.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Sat Aug 27 2005 04:41 PM)
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JG
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
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Quote:
Quote:
Hugh, I am unsure of the exact website where you can find that at, but the reading is in another website's forum.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=71478&start=400
Hit control f and then type in 119. It will take you to the correct post.
Registration required 
ETA: Advisory is out. Hurricane Watch extended to the AL/FL border. Pressure down to 945 but winds remain 115. Have not read the Fcst/Discussion yet if it is even out.
I'm registered there and let me tell you that the recon data is invaluable. I just hope we can keep a plane in there almost non-stop for the next 36 hours. This storm will or could be as devestating as the 'C' word when all is said and done....
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Here you go Hugh: "WITH THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 945 MB. THE AIRCRAFT HAVE FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AS HIGH AS 119 KT AT 8000 FT IN THE OUTER EYEWALL"
From the 5:00 Discussion. Those were flight level winds. I must have read the report wrong. My apologies.
I thought that seemed a bit high... 
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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I have to agree, it does not seem to be moving much on the IR...almost none in the last third of the loop...I don't know what you mean though by north movement helps..it helps someone, but hurts another
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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jr928
Weather Guru
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Posts: 101
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advisory says basically hold the course, further west landfall? quicker turn but after landfall, I'd leave N.O now. possible 5 before landfall, eek
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pryord1
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
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Can anyone tell me how much the trough digging down from the NW can affect this system? Is there still a possiblility that it can pull back to the east before landfall?
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The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Here you go Hugh: "WITH THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 945 MB. THE AIRCRAFT HAVE FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AS HIGH AS 119 KT AT 8000 FT IN THE OUTER EYEWALL"
From the 5:00 Discussion. Those were flight level winds. I must have read the report wrong. My apologies.
I thought that seemed a bit high...
I assumed it was flight level (but didn't want to say it  ). Anyway, they have not YET measured stronger winds at the surface. The 7pm advisory may see an increase there if the EWRC is finished by then, which looks possible anyway.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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bn765
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 60
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Wow... a possible cat 5 before landfall....Katrina means serious business
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bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 71
Loc: New Hampshire
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Quote:
It's been mentioned that due to the distance from the tower, that radar data is at an angle that makes motion unreliable.
Yes I believe the default Tilt for br radar is .5 deg
I'm using GR level 3 to view this storm from Key West radar and on this software the altitude of the return echo is displayed as you mouse over the radar. The display is ~32k feet at the eastern eyewall and ~45k feet where I'd guess the western eyewall would be. 's core is passing the maximum range of this radar station.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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NHC says in their latest advisory that the replacement eyewall is currently 45-50 NMs wide. This is very large, and as it shrinks, could lead to substantial intensification.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Wow... a possible cat 5 before landfall....Katrina means serious business
Some people have been saying that since last night - but now the is admitting/agreeing to it. Hopefully if it goes to N.O. they wil have had time to evacuated everyone - hopefully. I'm STILL not convinced that it won't swing east of that track though like Opal and .
UPDATE: The Weather Channel just showed an IR image where you could see the new eye potentially forming.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sat Aug 27 2005 04:52 PM)
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BLTizzle
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 13
Loc: Eufaula, AL
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this may have been asked already....but.....could this be THE ONE for New Orleans? With them being below sea level and all, with the current forecast track the storm surge would push all the water toward Lake Ponchetrain......could this be the one? I hope not for everyone's sake there....
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
this may have been asked already....but.....could this be THE ONE for New Orleans? With them being below sea level and all, with the current forecast track the storm surge would push all the water toward Lake Ponchetrain......could this be the one? I hope not for everyone's sake there....
Forgive the simple, one-word answer, but... yes. Not only COULD it be, it looks like it IS.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Once again, MS is slow with coastal evac (Kissy in Pascagoula confirms this through PM). From CNN online:
"Robert Latham, director of the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency, said evacuations of tourists along the coast could begin late Saturday afternoon, followed by mandatory evacuations of coastal residents on Sunday."
JG - recon fixes every three hours now.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Sat Aug 27 2005 04:59 PM)
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wiley
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 13
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Then again, it's looked like a lot of things in the past few days...
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bn765
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 60
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Wow Bastardi was just on Fox News and he is very confident this will be at least a high Cat 4 and maybe a 5.
Edited by bn765 (Sat Aug 27 2005 05:05 PM)
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