Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
it's SOUTH of Florida still. If it turns N or even NNW, it hits Florida. And it's also possible it COULD swing a bit NNE. History means something.
It's more likely that it will end up between Biloxi and the AL/FL line, though.. in which case, Pensacola is in for a rough time of it again. Someone kept mentioning that it keeps looking like Gulf Shores again... and I'm not sure I disagree.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 435
|
|
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
edited to the most recent models runs on the site~danielw
those are the tighest i have seen any runs yet.
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 28 2005 03:56 AM)
|
Disaster Master
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 72
Loc: San Antonio G0! Spurs Go!
|
|
I really dont think those are safe remarks for the people evacuating from La. and Ms. WishCasting this late in the game could effect peoples oppinions of this monster. Could very well put people in danger that look to this site for guidance anf info. Please folks read the disclaimer at the bottom after reading the remarks of amateur weather casters. Stick with the facts. Do what the local law enforcement tells you to do and keep you eyes on the updates.
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
"If you wake up tomorrow morning and noticing it starting to get breezier, you'll know."
That's what frightens me. It appears to be slowly but surely creeping toward the coast. People in the Panhandle MIGHT wake up and face a dreadful situation - in the path of a cat 4/5 hurricane and insufficient time to evacuate. I don't expect it to move that fast but I didn't expect it to turn east of the forecast track, either.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 28 2005 03:59 AM)
|
jr928
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 101
|
|
boy , I agree. the trough that turned was showing storms firing up ahead and running north well out into the gulf and the water vapor shows this occuring but well back into texas and not moving much ahead. Current track looks stable.
|
SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
|
|
I am really concerned about 's size and current movement. looks a lot like did in size and she could be stronger! was scary enough. I am very concerned. With the size of the wind field on this thing, EVERYONE in that cone should be ready!! Time to be ready!! 
--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Since History was brought up. I relocated a link to the Hurricane Camille Bulletins.
I'm not saying could be similar to Camille.
It's just that Camille was forecast into NW FL and the warnings weren't extended into Biloxi until 6 AM the morning before she made landfall.
That's 16 hours Notice!
If a HURRICANE WATCH or WARNING is posted for the coast near you.
Please pay Very Close attention to all Advisories on . track models are tightly cluster on the MS/LA area right now.
That could, but probably won't,change.
Here's the link to the Camille Bulletins. Notice the signatures at the bottoms of the Bulletins. Names like (Robert)Simpson, the late (John)Hope, and(Neil) Frank to name a few of the more prominant ones.
The Bulletins are in jpeg format.
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archives/atlantic/prelimat/atl1969/camille/
|
Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
|
|
ralphfl, those are plots from 6z this morning. The 0z is a bit east now, making landfall on the AL/FL border. Like what dismaster said, stay with the until they tell you differently. I also think we will have Lee before the weekends over. 90L is heading almost due west, and the Leewards and Puerto Rico may have to deal with this one in the coming days.....then possibly the SE US Coast since the western Atlantic ridge should build back with the depa.ting .
I have corrected Ralph's link to the 00Z runs.~danielw
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 28 2005 04:00 AM)
|
ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 435
|
|
Quote:
it's SOUTH of Florida still. If it turns N or even NNW, it hits Florida. And it's also possible it COULD swing a bit NNE. History means something.
It's more likely that it will end up between Biloxi and the AL/FL line, though.. in which case, Pensacola is in for a rough time of it again. Someone kept mentioning that it keeps looking like Gulf Shores again... and I'm not sure I disagree.
The other poster beat me to it.These models [http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png (SORRY WRONG LINK  are tight and no a little more then we do.To say it will more likely end up well east of where the experts AND the models say is not a good thing when you are talking about lives in LA who might say we are ok then get hit with a 150mph cane.
The reason i get so upset with people saying stuff like that is last year people on these sites said Its coming to tampa better evac now when charlie came.....Now when they posted that on here some people with no clue got scared and left a safe location in tampa for a spot in Orlando where they were killed.
Its about lives.
-- edit -- 2 folks lost their life in Orlando from Charlie and neither of the two were folks who evacuated from another area.
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Aug 28 2005 04:04 AM)
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
EDIT: Ralph updated his link - so the first part no longer is needed.
Also, SSD is now clearly showing an eye on IR.
--RC
{ Oh yeah, and I sleep now! }
Edited by Random Chaos (Sun Aug 28 2005 03:50 AM)
|
Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
|
|
I don't consider his to comments to be wishcastiong of any kind. He is giving an informed opinion. Truthfully, I see the logic in his comments and have concerns about the warning areas not being large enough. Granted there is still a little bit of extra time for the pnahandle; but not that much. Anyone from LA to Florida should follow evacuation instructions from officials. I would consider his comments as more of a heads up to panhandle residents to not let their guard down. The storm did rid on the eastern edge of the guidence on the last few hours. i would rather over warn then underwarn in a situation like this.
EDIT- I am assuming you were refereing to VG's comments.
--------------------
Jim
Edited by Rasvar (Sun Aug 28 2005 03:50 AM)
|
bn765
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 60
|
|
We now have an eye on ....TWC just confirmed the pressure is down to 936 mb.
|
Disaster Master
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 72
Loc: San Antonio G0! Spurs Go!
|
|
And wave heights up to 36ft. WoW 
|
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Been waiting to see this for two days.
On the 3:15Z sat image (visual, ir, and water vapor), for the first time has come together and looks like a Cat 4, and also has the strong buzzsaw signature.
Even the image just before this one did not have this appearance. This image dates from 10:15 CDT so this is what the was seeing at the time they put out discussion 19 that we had not seen yet.
Can one of the mods post this image?
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
NHC Recon Vortex Statement (my notes in italic):
000
URNT12 KNHC 280338
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/03:26:30Z
B. 24 deg 59 min N
086 deg 23 min W
C. 700 mb 2558 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 119 deg 114 kt
G. 023 deg 020 nm
H. 936 mb
I. 12 C/ 3052 m
J. 19 C/ 3048 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30 this means a 30 NM circular eye
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1512A OB 13
MAX FL WIND 114 KT NE QUAD 03:20:40 Z
LIGHTNING OBSERVED BRIEFLY IN NE EYEWALL
|
Genesis
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 125
|
|
Guys and gals, she's exactly on the forecast track. Rignt up the middle. Don't count some wobbles and ignore the others!
Look at the link....
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html
Right up the middle guys and gals. The graphic doesn't lie.
The track - thus far - is verifying.
BEWARE THIS STORM; you do not have to be "on the line" to get hurt or killed by it!
|
ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 435
|
|
Also 1 saving grace with this storm which is just my opinion from reading what some of the discussions have been saying lead me to think this may reach its peak before it hits and i still say a cat 3 when it hits due to shear before landfall which is in the forcast.....Just my gut feeling that this will fade out some before it hits.
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
No wishcasting at all. Why would I wish a category 5 (potential) hurricane on myself!?!?
I am simply saying that it is too soon to declare anywhere safe. But to say that the models are accurate is, well, putting too much faith in computers. I'm a software engineer. The computer models are initiated with data that is 6 hours old at times, which is what leads them to sometimes flip-flop. Plus, well, no computer is perfect. Every storm I can think of has moved somewhat off of the forecast track.
Does that mean that people in N.O. should rela\x? HECK NO! It means that NO ONE should relax!!!
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
WhitherWeather
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 20
|
|
I've believed since this early this afternoon that she was going to turn more northward. I don't know what the Google track is being plotted from, but extrapolating from its last four or five plot points, will have to make a decided westerly turn now to follow the models to N'awleans. Google's "projected" path is still going there, but it will require a significant "left" deviation from the last few path markers.
Whither Whether
|
gavsie
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 18
Loc: Seminole Fl
|
|
Thanks, I am in no way wish casting it my way. I like storms just not big ones. I was just watching the troff and thought at her current rate she may do something unexpected... not at all unheard of. I certianly hope the good people of the panhandle do not see another storm, there may no longer be a panhandle. seems to be a hard storm to forecast. I expected to have felt the effects on friday and today. I guess it will just be a wait and see thing. 
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
