RedingtonBeachGuy
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Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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I am not a met but I can tell you this.. we thought the same thing last year with Charlie down here in Florida. My advice is to error on the side of caution. 
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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NHC 18A advisory mentions the turn has started, and reiterates that hurricane warnings for N GOM will be posted tonight (I'm guessing they're waiting for the 11pm on this one, to state any track and intensity adjustments; once the turn is started they'll have a better idea about landfall).
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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pcola
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Well, just something to break the tension, I radio station here in Pensacola has asked all residents to go outside at 9 pm tonight and point their fans to the south and turn them on at the same time....I will tell you if it works..we might as well try anything!
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Big Red Machine
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Loc: Polk City, FL
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Quote:
I don't understand these directions... W was classified as 0.1N, 0.2W from 2-5 and then WNW was classified as 0.2N, 0.3W.... Clearly the motion is more north than credit has been given. I'm telling you... the water vapor does not show me a storm going to NO. Even the VIS is starting to make it look east.
Terra, one reason the motion may seem more north than the is saying is that it is. The motion is a basis of a 6 hour average. (Thus when there a big shifts, ala in 04, the direction may not be the actual direction).
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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2327Z update is out, shows path just west of the LA coast - basically the same as the last advisory. This is a SLIGHT eastward motion from the last run (statistically insignificant, but there.)
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif
Note that the pegged the SW jog over the peninsula - it was a bit too fast with it, but it was the only model that picked it up - it seems to have a better handle on the rest of the weather map and its influence on this particular storm.....
(Edited to fix the link - the original site has some kind of problem, so I went back to the original source.)
Edited by Genesis (Sat Aug 27 2005 08:12 PM)
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Terra
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The motion is a basis of a 6 hour average.
I did not know this.... and it makes a lot of things (past storms included) make a lot more sense... So, yes, over the past 6 hours, motion was 0.3N, 0.5W... which is WNW. I'm mighty interested to see motion over the next three hours... and any new model runs...
Genesis read my mind... but, I have to reboot to see the plot, as I have the red X of death for the image.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Sat Aug 27 2005 08:08 PM)
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nl
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Loc: nsb,fl
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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JG
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http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/08/20050827-1.html
STATEMENT BY THE PRESS SECRETARY
The President today declared an emergency exists in the State of Louisiana and ordered Federal aid to supplement state and local response efforts in the parishes located in the path of Hurricane beginning on August 26, 2005, and continuing.
The President's action authorizes the Department of Homeland Security, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), to coordinate all disaster relief efforts which have the purpose of alleviating the hardship and suffering caused by the emergency on the local population, and to provide appropriate assistance for required emergency measures, authorized under Title V of the Stafford Act, to save lives, protect property and public health and safety, or to lessen or avert the threat of a catastrophe in the parishes of Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Bienville, Bossier, Caddo, Caldwell, Claiborne, Catahoula, Concordia, De Soto, East Baton Rouge, East Carroll, East Feliciana, Evangeline, Franklin, Grant, Jackson, LaSalle, Lincoln, Livingston, Madison, Morehouse, Natchitoches, Pointe Coupee, Ouachita, Rapides, Red River, Richland, Sabine, St. Helena, St. Landry, Tensas, Union, Vernon, Webster, West Carroll, West Feliciana, and Winn.
Specifically, FEMA is authorized to identify, mobilize, and provide at its discretion, equipment and resources necessary to alleviate the impacts of the emergency. Debris removal and emergency protective measures, including direct Federal assistance, will be provided at 75 percent Federal funding.
Representing FEMA, Michael D. Brown, Under Secretary for Emergency Preparedness and Response, Department of Homeland Security, named William Lokey as the Federal Coordinating Officer for Federal recovery operations in the affected area. 
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317288
Registered User
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Loc: Cairo,Ga.
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Quote:
2327Z update is out, shows path just west of the LA coast - basically the same as the last advisory. This is a SLIGHT eastward motion from the last run (statistically insignificant, but there.)
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif
Note that the pegged the SW jog over the peninsula - it was a bit too fast with it, but it was the only model that picked it up - it seems to have a better handle on the rest of the weather map and its influence on this particular storm.....
(Edited to fix the link - the original site has some kind of problem, so I went back to the original source.)
Would a new eye location north of the original eye position change the land fall location much? I heard the weather channel say it was having a eye replacement cycle.??
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pcola
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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OK..I usually do not make predictions but I am very concerned at all the N.O. talk. People in Pensacola are not taking this serious, Yesterday they were but everyone here says it is NO (based on the weather channel) and are doing nothing. But if you take the path over the last 2 hours, and extrapolate it in a straight line of direction, this storm makes landfall on the MS/AL border. The angle puts the extreme NW Florida Panhandle in the front right quadrant, . Also, we know strong storms wobble. made landall in Navarre when it wobbled east, If it was on the west side of a wobble it would have been Gulf Shores, 50 miles west. Do not assume this is going to NO. These storms have a history of jogs right on landfall. Also the forecast says a gradual turn to the north.Ft Walton and Destin must not let down their guard. I really hope I am wrong!!!! I just settled with my insurance company for Monday, and have roof damage. But make sure everyone from NO to Panama City stays alert. The storm surge on the east will be huge!!
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Black Pearl
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Loc: Mobile Bay
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The next forecast position is 24.9N 86.8W at 0600Z (2:00 AM EST). The position as of 8:00 PM EST is 24.8N 85.9W. This means that would have to travel .1N and .7W over the next 6 hrs to match the forecast position. Would not the current WNW motion take the storm further North than .1 over 6 hours? This suggests to me that the storm is indeed taking a path North earlier than expected. Is this correct? 
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pcola
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Great observation. Like I said. Everyone needs to pay attention.. This storm is VERY unpredictable!!!!!!!!
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Would a new eye location north of the original eye position change the land fall location much? I heard the weather channel say it was having a eye replacement cycle.??
Depends upon how far north. In this case I would say the change from that alone would be minor. The storm appears to be continuing to turn, though. Since the eye is not currently visible it's hard to pinpoint but it appears that the motion is close to NW, but it might still be WNW by NW. Now looks like it's headed directly for the Louisiana Delta. If it turns more toward the north that would seemingly shift the landfall potentially significantly eastward.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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WeatherNLU
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Loc: New Orleans, LA
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But if you take the path over the last 2 hours, and extrapolate it in a straight line of direction, this storm makes landfall on the MS/AL border. The angle puts the extreme NW Florida Panhandle in the front right quadrant.
Herein lies your problem. Stop trying extrapolate a 2 hour movement. I agree with your statement that everyone in the hurricane watch (Intracoastal City to MS/AL border) needs to pay close attention, but not based on a two hour movement that in my opinion still had move to do with the ERWC than that a overall shift in motion. Give it another 3-6 hours and lets see what happens.
Also, check your XTRAP, the storm moved .2N and .3W in the last three hours. If you take that out, you get 26.8 88.9......and that is not anywhere near the MS/AL line.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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pcola
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I agree WeatherUNL. My concern is the lack of preparation here in Pcola. The was perfect 4 days out on the track. Therefore everyone says that this track is written in stone..it is not..Virtually no preparation taking place on Pcola beach. Trying to get a point across to a few who have written this off for Mobile /Pensacola..a dangerous thing to do. Better safe than sorry
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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twizted sizter
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Look at the water vapor loop w/forecast points...she appears to me to be well east of what would be the next point...am I reading wrong or has her position just not straightened out from the ERWC?
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JG
Weather Hobbyist
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Quote:
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But if you take the path over the last 2 hours, and extrapolate it in a straight line of direction, this storm makes landfall on the MS/AL border. The angle puts the extreme NW Florida Panhandle in the front right quadrant.
Herein lies your problem. Stop trying extrapolate a 2 hour movement. I agree with your statement that everyone in the hurricane watch (Intracoastal City to MS/AL border) needs to pay close attention, but not based on a two hour movement that in my opinion still had move to do with the ERWC than that a overall shift in motion. Give it another 3-6 hours and lets see what happens.
Also, check your XTRAP, the storm moved .2N and .3W in the last three hours. If you take that out, you get 26.8 88.9......and that is not anywhere near the MS/AL line.
Shouldn't we actually watch a 6-12 hour loop? Like you said, 2 hours is not going to be conclusive.
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
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Loc: New Orleans, LA
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I agree WeatherUNL. My concern is the lack of preparation here in Pcola. The was perfect 4 days out on the track. Therefore everyone says that this track is written in stone..it is not..Virtually no preparation taking place on Pcola beach. Trying to get a point across to a few who have written this off for Mobile /Pensacola..a dangerous thing to do. Better safe than sorry
I agree 100% with that statement, no one needs to let their guards down, that would be plain silly. You have a potential CAT 5 hurricane in the eastern gulf and that's enough for us all to be worried.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Shouldn't we actually watch a 6-12 hour loop? Like you said, 2 hours is not going to be conclusive.
I'm watching a 6 hour WV loop. Net motion is closer to NW by my eyes than WNW.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Terra
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Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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If we're going to obsess over each point, I'll grant you that the 23:45 point was mighty west...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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