zacman2400
Registered User
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I have been a long time lurker here and have decided to post. Hurricane if she hasnt already finished her eye wall replacement cycle, she will soon. From satellite images her outflow is looker better in all quadrants, and her core has gotten stronger. I agree with the that this will be a category four hurricane, but not until she opens up her eye. Her pressure might even get down to 935 MB, but her winds will not correspondingly go up until she opens up the eye.
chances of her becoming category five?
Theres more here at play than high water temperatures. Historically hurricanes have weakened before landfall going into the North Gulf Coast. The only thing to weaken her though is shear forecasted during landfall. Most likely she will landfall as a category four 145 mph, but there is a small possibly she could strengthen to a category five. I have doubts though she could hold that intensity very long, due to her extended eye wall replacement cycle today.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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By the way, I see alot of people on here who kept me and my family in their prayers when 's eye came over my house. I just read the old threads today of what you said after the roof blew off the house and I went offline. I want to take the opportunity to thank you for all your concern and kind words!! Thanks everyone!
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
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Loc: New Orleans, LA
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Quote:
If we're going to obsess over each point, I'll grant you that the 23:45 point was mighty west...
Terra, I am not sure who you were responding to, but my whole point is to NOT obsess over every point. I am not trying to be mean or anything but extrapolating two hour movements, and "eyeballing" movements are not necessarily good ideas when you have a MAJOR hurricane bearning down on an area.
Please understand I mean no disrepect, I am simply trying to give my educated opinion.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Well around noon I posted that I expected to see intensification start in the evening, and I think we are there from the sat images. Can't wait to see some recon.
We've been hearing this storm will have favorable conditions to intensify to a Cat 4, practically from the beginning, and after some long days here we are, at the point where everything is in place: the deep warm water, low shear, the storm building to the point where it is pushing away the dry air, the successful reorganization after an .
Everything else is off my agenda tonight except watching , starting now.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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This Plot should help clean the track up some. think it was EWR gave a temp jog to north.
NHC Track vs. Recon
Dave
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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[quote
Terra, I am not sure who you were responding to, but my whole point is to NOT obsess over every point. I am not trying to be mean or anything but extrapolating two hour movements, and "eyeballing" movements are not necessarily good ideas when you have a MAJOR hurricane bearning down on an area.
Please understand I mean no disrepect, I am simply trying to give my educated opinion.
The education attempt is appreciated. Let me explain my reasoning, though - I'm looking at the shape and movement of the central dense overcast (CDO) - the whole storm, not just the eye. As the storm changes shape, it shows in some ways how it is being infliuenced by factors that will potentially steer it one way or the other.
Currently with the eye not visible on IR, it's easy to take some dry entrenchments as being the eye which can cause confused, too. It's hard to say which was will ultimately head, but it's "pointing" toward a more northward motion than the 4pm forecast, though. The 10pm forecast could stay the same, or it could move to the east. We'll find out at 10pm (CT).
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Trust me, it wasn't an insult or attack to anyone, and I am not suggesting that we obsess over one point... we just keep saying north and that point was a definite west, so I wanted to show that each point can show a significantly different direction, so again, we should not obsess over each point...
Hugh... look again on the WV, although completely irrelevant to the overall discussion the point I am referring to was indeed west, meaning towards Texas, not east, meaning towards Florida. In fact, now I can say the same thing about the 00:15 point.... but, I am not trying to give a point by point perspective, just relaying that the northern motion may have been EWR related...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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zacman2400
Registered User
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Katrina on the last satellite loops is opening her eye. This is when intensification should began. My hope out to New Orleans, and anywhere on the gulf coast.
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00cj
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 26
Loc: Panama City Beach, F.L.
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question.......When does anyone think they will issue tropical storm watches? also a guess as to where they could extend?
thanks in advance..
edit: I know there are already Hurricane watches but they usually issue tropical storm watches in the areas that will only see trop. storm conditions. and not hurricane conditions.
Edited by 00cj (Sat Aug 27 2005 09:10 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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I'm seeing a northwest trend over the last 4-5 hours on the IR now, though it is very difficult to tell due to the lack of a well defined eye. It could be the result of the or it could be an actual track change. We'll need a few vortex reports to know for sure.
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A technical note for people looking at animations from NOAA or NASA: I noticed a problem with Java 1.5 compatibility with those sites earlier today. If for some reason the animation doesn't load (error: "noinit" or something similar in the status bar), restart your browser. The issue is an out of memory issue due to Java 1.5 not cleaning up memory very well. Java 1.4 doesn't have this issue with those sites.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Trust me, it wasn't an insult or attack to anyone, and I am not suggesting that we obsess over one point... we just keep saying north and that point was a definite west, so I wanted to show that each point can show a significantly different direction, so again, we should not obsess over each point...
Hugh... look again on the WV, although completely irrelevant to the overall discussion the point I am referring to was indeed west, meaning towards Texas, not east, meaning towards Florida. In fact, now I can say the same thing about the 00:15 point.... but, I am not trying to give a point by point perspective, just relaying that the northern motion may have been EWR related...
I agree, point-by-point comparison is rather silly. My comparison between the 23:45 point was to compare it to the forecast position for that time, not the relative motion. has move less west than she was forecast to at the 4pm CT forecast, thus far at least. The north "jog" MAY have been EWR related, I'll grant that. - also known as a "wobble"... but the overall presentation of - while becoming more and more impressive, is also becoming somewhat polar-oriented. The outflow is now approaching the Big Bend to the NE of , but has not gonna any closer to N.O. (well maybe a bit). The actual vortex may not have turned yet, and that is what the recon will tell us.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Dawn
Weather Watcher
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Loc: St. Petersburg FL
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Are you saying that it may still come back to Florida? If you are I agree, not that I want that to happen, look at Radar and Satellite, just not doing the NO thing that I can see. Hope I am wrong - but at this time somebody is going to get this storm and I am sorry I can not stop it.
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docjoe
Registered User
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I believe it will intensify and head to santa rosa county simply because the roofers just finished my new post roof about 3 hours ago!!! Seriously as one who has had enough and to last a lifetime i hope tuesday AM finds everyone safe and sound. Also i for one appreciate everyones opinion and take on what is going on with !
docjoe
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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OK guys, like I said, it's starting.
Recon up on website shows extrap 942mb, and still 8 deg diff at the eyewall. 90kt max fl winds in SW quad, ragged elip eyewall. Surprised the winds still so low.
This was from 90 min ago on a run from the SW quad to the NE quad.
Usually we have a mod or someone who posts recon info. Guess we'll have to wait for add'l info.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Sat Aug 27 2005 09:39 PM)
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teal61
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
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A. 27/22:44:30Z
B. 24 deg 49 min N
085 deg 36 min W
A. 28/00:01:40Z
B. 24 deg 50 min N
085 deg 51 min W
Due west for 1hour 15 min. What does this mean? Probably not much.
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
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Loc: florida
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I think it starting to feel the affect of the trough to the north this is why it made that early turn in my guss.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I think it starting to feel the affect of the trough to the north this is why it made that early turn in my guss.
Looks like it was probably just a temporary wobble after all. We'll see, but it does look like it will strengthen at 10pm based upon the pressure drop down to 942 again and the closed, albeit ragged, eye.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Thanks for explaining the difference in direction! Like Terra said, that explains a lot. So, say for instance that we are seeing a more n/nw motion, the will wait for 6 hours before putting that as a confirmed direction?
I've been watching and I thought I was nuts because I thought I was seeing a more north/nw motion, and of course this could have been due to the EWRC. When they came out with the WNW, I thought I'd lost my mind. Which is still a possibility. 
I am glad that the officials in LA are taking this storm so seriously, getting people out early; but like someone else said there are almost no preparations going on in Pensacola eastward. *IF* the track changes -- even shifts a tad to the east at landfall, it's going to be ugly. I just saw someone on CNN complaining about what a pain it is to board up his windows. Same thing in Gulf Shores. I'm sure this is not a majority of the people in those areas, but with this storm only 36 +/- hours away, I think they are playing with fire.
My thoughts go out to those in the path of this storm...I just can't believe this is happening again! Please be safe and do what you can to keep yourselves out of danger.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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JG
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
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Quote:
OK guys, like I said, it's starting.
Recon up on website shows extrap 942mb, and still 8 deg diff at the eyewall. 90kt max fl winds in SW quad, ragged elip eyewall. Surprised the winds still so low.
This was from 90 min ago on a run from the SW quad to the NE quad.
Usually we have a mod or someone who posts recon info. Guess we'll have to wait for add'l info.
You can read vortex messages on the itself or just ask away, I'm happy to pm or post them to. The mods I'm sure are swamped tonight...
000
URNT12 KNHC 280034
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/00:01:40Z
B. 24 deg 50 min N
085 deg 51 min W
C. 700 mb 2587 m
D. 45 kt
E. 217 deg 056 nm
F. 285 deg 090 kt
G. 209 deg 008 nm
H. EXTRAP 942 mb
I. 10 C/ 3042 m
J. 18 C/ 3049 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. E12/40/30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1512A OB 05
MAX FL WIND 90 KT SW QUAD 23:59:10 Z
MAX FL TEMP 19C 320/6NM FROM FL CENTER
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700MB
RAGGED EYE WALL
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Usually we have a mod or someone who posts recon info. Guess we'll have to wait for add'l info.
There is a recon info link on the left as well. Although it's not as quick as some other sources to update. You can feed it any data.
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