lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Katrina's 908mb pressure is similar to Mitch.
18 GMT 10/26/98 16.9N 83.1W 180mph 905mb Category 5 Hurricane
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Quote:
I hesitate to drop the "c" bomb, but this thing is looking more and more like Camille. She bottomed out at 905 mb and hit 909 mb, although she was a bit smaller than KAT. What we have to concentrate on now is on factors, hopefully, that will ratchet this monster down a bit. Any mods or other hurrigeeks have info about SSTs, wind shears, or dry air ahead of this storm?
Let's not look at any of those. The SST's will remain extremely favorable, shear looks low, and dry air shouldn't have much of an impact.
HOWEVER, the one thing that could knock this down a bit in damage: a landfall during an . That might mean the different between a 155-170 mph cane at landfall and a 140-155 mph landfall. I think the northern central Gulf Coast is in for a really tragic and historical cane. But of those two options I see, I'd rather take the latter.
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Hello from Atlanta....
Spent most of the night listening to WWL-AM's coverage and they have really done a good job on the coverage and opening up the phones for information...Heck, I even called in to let the evacuees know if they plan on coming to Atlanta, they should instead evacuate to Valdosta, Adel, or Savannah...
Just listening to the forecast they were giving from the at about 5am ET, I just started crying because of the damage this storm could cause and hearing the quote from the police chief saying "we don't have enough body bags if people stay and not evacuate....
If you're in the evacuation zones, even the voluntary...GET OUT NOW AND HEAD WEST TO TEXAS OR EAST TO JACKSONVILLE!!!!
And for those of us who are not in the zones in NoLa, let's all stop and say a prayer that something, anything happens to this storm to guide it away from Downtown NoLa......
Take Care..
Jeff
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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good morning !!!! first vis looks...............
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/rmtcrso/121.jpg
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Kevin...is that isabel in your avatar? it'd be interesting to see that storm juxtaposed with the current ...i think is larger...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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GLT
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
Loc: Central FL
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Sorry if this post doesn't fit here.
I am looking for a way to DIRECTLY help victims of this monster. I have been very fortunate lately and would like to do something substantial , like buy 4 of 5 generators and take them to the affected area (with gas of course).
The reason I want to help directly is because my neighborhood was destroyed by Charlie (Osteen, FL) and there was no assistance from ANYONE, save the Red Cross who showed up with sandwiches 5 days later.
I understand that a bunch of people with no skills going to the affected area would do more harm than good. I understand you can donate to various orgs. and I probably will. But, I would like to SEE my help benefit a real family.
If mods think it is more appropriate, please PM me with ideas. There will be a PAYPAL donation to this site immediately after this post, because this site helped IMMENSELY with the psychological aftermaths of the storm for me. Maybe we could have a forum to discuss ways to help?
Thanks,
GLT
-- Donations are always welcomed so we can maintain our costs! The Disaster Forum Thread is available for you to post your availability to help.
Thanks!
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Aug 28 2005 12:29 PM)
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I was just wondering...exactly how much traffic is there on I-10 eastbound right now? Are there still tons of cars on the road? I hope we don't see some kind of event where we have evacuees being flooded away in their cars.
-- http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Aug 28 2005 12:34 PM)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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My best advice to anyone evacuating would be to take the path of least resistance and then when in a clearer area, try to shoot east[if in Alabama] or west if in LA/MS. I would avoid taking a chance of evacuating into the path of this system no matter how far north you can get. I would also advise taking your important papers and taking enough clothes and supplies for at least a week.
This storm is going to cause major disuption of all systems possible as far as 100 miles inland. If your area is hit, do not plan on returning for at least 5-7 days. It is safer to stay away during that time. When you do decide to return in this situation, I would advise purchasing extra fuel in large fuel cans and bringing back large bottles of water for your own use. Any area that takes this hit near the coast will find that these services will be disrupted for an extended period of time.
My prayers go to all who are in the path of this monster.
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Jim
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Quote:
Kevin...is that isabel in your avatar? it'd be interesting to see that storm juxtaposed with the current ...i think is larger...
Yes...Katrina would have to be larger than Isabel. Isabel was a very circular hurricane, whereas seems to be elongated N-S. Isabel's eye was a bit better defined, however.
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Isabel's eye was a bit better defined, however
and let's hope it stays that way...katrina may have 24 more hours (or more) to change that...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Responding to LI Phil's first post...just took me awhile to get this typed in.
Well the last six hours have seen it just push the dry air away like no big deal. It is definitely "making its own weather."
You sure hit the nail on the head. The track is now the critical thing because the special discussion basically said Cat 4 or 5 at landfall. We don't need to worry about intensity now; we know anyone in its path is basically screwed.
I saw a post that some of the models shifted landfall to the east, some time after I posted about just missing the last forecast point a hair to the east.
NHC didn't mention the possibility of a track change at 7am, and the rapid intensification was, well, enough news for now. It must be absolutely crazy there right now.
But I think there is a possibility of a track change and they'll know more in a little while. Of course now they're probably not going to go with the public advisory schedule for anything that is not routine; time is so critical that if they know something they're going to let people know right away.
You'd think with all the rapid intensification going on would be wobbling - if you zoom in on sat, the wobbles are there, but they are small, I guess because this thing is such a symmetrical monster with such inertia. Looking at the sat image, it didn't curve for over three hours (3am to 6am - 1045Z is the last sat image on the loop) -- it's gone straight. It's going straight for the next forecast point, but what are the implications of that? Any small change now has larger implications for landfall.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Quote:
>>> Isabel's eye was a bit better defined, however
and let's hope it stays that way...katrina may have 24 more hours (or more) to change that...
Yes...and there may be another round of rapid intensification. This intensification will depend on whether or not we have another . I say that we will, with 15-24 left until landfall. It will be very interesting to see what happens if we have more rapid deepening (following an ) before landfall.
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toemastergeneral
Registered User
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Posts: 6
Loc: Gulf Breeze, FL
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Quote:
I was just wondering...exactly how much traffic is there on I-10 eastbound right now? Are there still tons of cars on the road? I hope we don't see some kind of event where we have evacuees being flooded away in their cars.
As you reach Pensacola going east on I-10 you are going to hit a bottleneck as you make your way to the Escambia Bay Bridge. They are doing a ton of roadwork abot 5 miles west of the bridge and I would imagine that with this mass exodus it's gonna be bumper to bumper there. One alternative is to take I10 to I-110 (exit 12 towards downtown and Pensacola Beach), go through Gulf Breeze (hwy 98) to the Garcon Point Bridge and re-emerge back onto I-10. It will take you out of your way a little but you will not be sitting in traffic.
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No biz like toe biz!
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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I'm surprised at the increase in forward speed..does anyone know if this was projected..I've also come to the conclusion that my cardiologist runs the models..these right shifts are just enough to keep my pulse up...50 miles east at landfall makes a huge difference here in storm surge
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
Edited by pcola (Sun Aug 28 2005 12:29 PM)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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GLT, I would not advise a direct trip like that into the main impact area on your own. The areas are going to be overwhelmed by this system. This situation will be more like post-Andrew Miami. There will be areas of complete chaos. Not only that; but access will probably have to be tightly controlled and they would only allow recognized aid groups in. You won't be allowed in.
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Jim
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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trying to find the report, but i heard its her pressure is down to 908mb.... trying to confirm that now!
-- simply look at the left hand corner of our web page for confirmation.
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Aug 28 2005 12:33 PM)
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susieq
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Panhandle
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It's developing that "comma" look. What does that mean?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
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Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Its the Advisory pressure, Storm Hunter.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
It's developing that "comma" look. What does that mean?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
I see more of a buzzsaw than a comma. It means... bad news probably. The only hope is for an EWRC at landfall.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Good Morning all. We are witnessing history in the making. Perhaps a once in a lifetime storm. On the track, overall good consensus on the models but two globals, 00Z and UKMET, take the center slightly eastward than the path somewhere between Mobile and P'Cola. The 06Z and 00Z are real close to 's projected path (SE LA). The size of KAT is also amazing - tropical storm winds with a diameter of 350 miles and hurricane force winds with a diameter of 140 miles. Predicted storm surge of 15-25 feet in SE LA and coastal Miss, 10-15 feet for coastal AL, and 6-7 feet for western panhandle. A true monster. Our prayers go out to those in her path.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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RJB
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