bobbutts
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Based on satellite and radar the west side of this storm is falling apart and the motion is 350-360 deg. Really good news for NO at least for the wind effects as I suspect the city will see around 100mph sustained as they should be at least several miles from the W eyewall. I'm not qualified to guess on the flooding (not that I was qualified to guess the wind either), but obviously the weakening will lessen the effects.
As I write, the update confirms the turn to the north and weakening to cat 4..
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Storm Hunter
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from what i can tell dry air got in on the west side inflow... i would expect mid cat 4 by time it passes New Orleans, now...maybe high cat 3.... I don't think the a saved the area.... think dry air got into her. this area may fill in, but i think highly unlikely....
-------------------- www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 29 2005 03:13 AM)
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nate77
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Quote:
Based on satellite and radar the west side of this storm is falling apart and the motion is 350-360 deg. Really good news for NO at least for the wind effects as I suspect the city will see around 100mph sustained as they should be at least several miles from the W eyewall. I'm not qualified to guess on the flooding (not that I was qualified to guess the wind either), but obviously the weakening will lessen the effects.
As I write, the update confirms the turn to the north and weakening to cat 4..
I wouldnt say its falling apart, looks like some dry air maybe mixing in. Nnabb from the said that it is still well developed and that it can still re-intensify.
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Margie
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So that explains the lopsided wind fields that danielw posted, and that would make sense since that is the part that is being fed with air from over land now. You could see it on radar but I wasn't sure if that was a true lack of precip on the SW or if the radar just couldn't see it that well at that distance.
Quite a change, but as you would expect the core still looks pretty solid.
If only this wasn't such a large storm...there is still going to be quite a lot of the core left on landfall even with the dramatic changes on the W side of the storm. And the E side, with the strong winds, will continue to be fed from the warm Gulf waters.
So is this what affects the motion and makes it go more east upon landfall? The storm becomes lopsided and so tends to be pulled from all the strong winds that are left on the east? I was wondering about this last night.
-------------------- Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Doombot!
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It seems from the long range radar out of NO the there is now a slight east of north movement; I'd say 005 degrees. Good (late) night and good luck everyone.
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Storm Hunter
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on present course.....gulfport, ms should be real close to center.... atleast ne eyewall, later on in morning.
base ref. titl 1 on level 3 data...shooting lowest part of eyewall at 12700ft now
-------------------- www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Storm Hunter
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recent storm relative velocity LIX....
http://stormhunter7.tripod.com/radar/lix.png
shear on second cell...one on right...100kts plus at 4000ft
-------------------- www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 29 2005 03:24 AM)
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nate77
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Is it me or on NO long range radar the far southern tip of Louisana is near the eye wall?
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mightygringo85
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By the looks of the latest IR Image, it looks as if the dry slot is closing up. Maybe it's just me.
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Storm Hunter
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west side of eyewall looks like its about to collapse
-------------------- www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 29 2005 03:29 AM)
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danielw
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NOAA 3 is now airborne to augment AFRES 305 with the data.
My Local TV Met is also and change in the water vaopr imagery.
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Storm Hunter
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URNT12 KNHC 290725
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/07:00:10Z
B. 28 deg 22 min N
089 deg 35 min W
C. 700 mb 2352 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 095 deg 122 kt
G. 356 deg 039 nm
H. EXTRAP 915 mb
I. 9 C/ 3028 m
J. 20 C/ 3011 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. OPEN SSE-SSW
M. C32
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.01 / 1 nm
P. AF305 2012A OB 18
MAX FL WIND 134KT N QUAD 02:49:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
NO should come out better now i think.... she's going to weaken now i think... i think she on the down trend now....thanks to DRY AIR!
-------------------- www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 29 2005 03:34 AM)
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Margie
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Regarding that drier air on the west between the core and the spiral band...
I went back and looked at the visual sat images before the nightly blackout, and that could be seen as early as 0215Z, and definitely by the 0315Z. Of course then it was on the E and NE sides of the storm. You can see it start to peel away in a sense.
And since that was being fed by the Gulf at the time I'm not sure what to attribute it to except being near land, and the storm being so large it needed to be totally surrounded by water in order to maintain a tight structure.
Anyway then during the blackout it rotated over the N side which was near or over land, and that is when it really deteriorated.
Going back to the 0045Z visual sat image the clouds above the core are symmetrical, like a donut. After that you could see the core of the storm start to break down into the spiraling bands on subsequent images.
So in spite of the large eye and solid small core around the eye, it doesn't appear to have an annular structure any more.
-------------------- Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Margie
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Darn I was afraid of this (going from C30 to C32 and from closed to open, and so quickly).
The eyewall is expanding and this will continue, and the strongest winds which comprise the eastern eyewall, will migrate to the center of the MS Gulf Coast by landfall (Gulfport and Biloxi) instead of reaching only say to Waveland or west Bay St. Louis.
Earlier today I thought that the storm was going to turn eastward so that the east side of the eyewall would make landfall between Gulfport and Biloxi (and it is still too soon to tell if that can still occur or if the storm will track to the predicted path). But this could be just as bad...say the storm stays close to the track, but the eye, which is already so large, expands so that the worst part of the storm clobbers the entire MS Gulf Coast.
It now appears that if the storm tracks to the E of NO, they will be spared the highest winds and may not see any sustained winds much over 100mph. However this will still be enough to cause problems with flooding.
Edit -- the appearance of the eye on the 0645Z wv sat image is no longer round. Also the wv sat images shows just how significantly the western side of the storm has eroded. Since she's so large, I'm wondering now if we're not going to see her fall apart rather spectacularly and quickly.
The argument is usually made that change affects smaller hurricanes faster (well at least in the sense they might be able to spin up and spin down faster), but consider that with such a very large eye and with the core covering a larger area, it could be harder to maintain a stable structure close to land.
I'm wondering what's going to happen when that eroded west side spins around. As the storn spins around, the strong east side will go around the north, partly over land, and should also deteriorate. So when the already weak west side comes around, how much will it be rejuvinated by the Gulf waters before going over land again. I'm thinking that because the storm is so lopsided right now, this is going to be more of an issue than you'd normally assume. Also it's possible that it will never be able to get the eyewall closed again.
Edited by Margie (Mon Aug 29 2005 04:12 AM)
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Storm Hunter
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looks like i see the eyewall breaking on the SSW side.... i bet thats dry air feeding into center at 15000ft or so..... i also would expect a change in track coming up.... a SLIGHT east shift i would think.....
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI5_wv_loop.gif
take a look at above WV....
-------------------- www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 29 2005 03:45 AM)
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mightygringo85
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just saw the latest WSI Image on FNC eyewall has closed back up
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Storm Hunter
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recon reported open on on south side... that would take a while to fill back in... time is not on her side now.. she's about to make landfall on the coast line in SE part of LA... northern eyewall is less than 10miles from land/swamp area.
-------------------- www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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mightygringo85
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WVTM's Live Doppler One Million shows eyewall has closed back up and dry spot is dissapearing
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mightygringo85
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According to FNC, Power going on and off in Downtown New Orleans
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danielw
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Out of curiosity.
I mapped out the coordinates for a theoretical track to landfall. It appears that has started her Northward motion. Using Vortex for the Lat/ Longs.
From 0631Z to 0725Z she moved 0.20minutes North and 0.01minutes West.
These are Aircraft minutes and not decimal points.
In decimal points the last fix would convert to N 28.03333 and W 089.58334.
Plotted due North this would approximate a 'theoretical' landfall about 7 miles S of Buras,LA or 12 miles SW of Boothville,LA.
If she were to continue a due North run/ track from that point. She would make a second landfall at or near the MS/LA border at the Pearl River. This is near Lake Borgne and just south of Pearlington,MS.
ALL of the above comments are based on a "theoretical" due north track and are not implied or forecast by or the NWS.
They are purely...conjecture.~danielw
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