VG
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
Loc: Tampa Bay, FL
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Kissy Asked:
Just curious how often you come close to your forecasts? If what you say comes about Pascagoula would be in some deep you know what!!!
Thomas Says:
I correctly forecasted all landfalling tropical cyclones last season and all so far this season. But answering your question will probably get me censored.
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Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Plant City, FL, USA
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cmoore
Registered User
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Posts: 2
Loc: FLA 30.6078N~87.1084W
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Has anyone realized that as soon as winds get to tropical force they will close the I10 bridge in P’cola? It is not structurally sound enough to handle anything more! Folks may consider hwy90 through Pace/Milton and also hwy98 through Gulf breeze. Good luck all~ Not good to be on the raods as these bands are coming in but it would be worse to be in that bridge.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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It's now down to the End Game for , moving at a healthy clip to the northwest. Landfall is likely within 10-12hr along the extreme S. coast of Louisiana, not far from the Venice and Buras areas -- maybe slightly NW of there -- with a date with New Orleans growing ever likely for Monday morning. Currently, the storm is located about 150mi offshore and 215mi south to south-southeast of New Orleans, as located by Doppler radar, and moving more or less between the northwest and north-northwest at this point in time. Outer rain bands are beginning to affect regions of the entire northern Gulf coast and conditions are only going to go downhill from here.
At this rate of speed, the storm should be near New Orleans, likely as a category 4/5 hurricane, in about 18hr. Landfall is projected at or near the current intensity of 140kt within 10-12hr along the SE Louisiana coastline. As the system draws closer to the coast, the potential for a "saving grace" such as an eyewall cycle or increasing shear diminishes, increasing the potential catastrophic effects this storm may bring.
Further updates through the night.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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debwire
Registered User
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Posts: 9
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
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I imagine that it's probably a little too early to predict that tropical depression #13 will be a fish spinner considering that started as tropical depression 10, which fizzled out 8/14 only to reform as tropical depression 12 on 8/23. Am I incorrect in this assessment? So much for her fizzling out or becoming a fish spinner because she's now one of the largest, most powerful hurricanes in history.
Edited by debwire (Sun Aug 28 2005 06:44 PM)
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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Posts: 161
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Battened down the boat.....they're saying a surge of at least 15-20' in Mobile Bay....
what's the latest ya'll? Just got back on line. Been hearing all kinds of rumors....People are going crazy around here...
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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Heard Max Mayfield say on fox news the law enforcement officers, ect would need to start getting people off the highways soon as the first bands are moving in which I think is now?
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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geezus rick, good luck and godspeed...you too frank p, mbfly and everyone else in her path
rick, if there's any specific info you need, post it here and we'll all do what we can...
best to you in this time
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
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I know if "it's not tropic it's toast" but...This is sincere.....we (my family) have already discussed what we will do for the affected area (s). We sent lots of food and stuff down south after . Will do the same again. Hope your site will give us the info on where/how to send it. If I get any info I will PM one of the mods to let you know where/how to send help.
God bless and godspeed all.
Dotty and family
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Lysis
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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I was thinking… this is going to receive more media coverage than perhaps any storm in recent times. With so many people in New Orleans and the surrounding gulf coast covering the event, both media and storm chaser, I expect we will have a comprehensive record of this absolutely tragic and unprecedented event. The fact that this is looking like a day landfall will give everyone a clear and present look at this disaster, which is really beyond all comprehension to the layman. While I am sick to my stomach knowing what so many people are going to be experiencing at daybreak, the filmmaker and weather enthusiast in me is very anxious. I think people will finally be able to see what a super hurricane is like so that they may be able to fear and appreciate it as they should. It is unfortunate that so many people will have to suffer for this appreciation to be earned, however I think we may be at a threshold in the forecasting of this event. Watching the local media and the anchors “bringing you into the eye of the storm”, I can’t help but feel that I am seeing “dead men walking”, so to speak. Wayne Salade (our emergency manager) spoke to a limited audience at my school that I was fortunate enough to be a part of. One of the topics we were discussing is the advent of increasingly dangerous “stunts” partaken by the media, and how one day it is going to catch up to them. I cannot believe that the one guy in New Orleans on Fox has any idea what he is getting into. may be host to a media fatality like this… hopefully not on the air. 
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Sun Aug 28 2005 06:35 PM)
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Katrina's eye is now visible on the NO radar
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Lysis, funny you should bring that up, I was just discussing that here at home. The mainstream media should take heed of the fact that (1) most major hurricane trackers will not be in New Orleans or anywhere close to the expected points of landfall and (2) the weather channel will not be having a man there. With each storm many of the networks are willing to take greater risks and continue to send out guys who are not meteorologists. With so many close calls, it's only a matter of time. Cooper on CNN almost got himself killed during and a local guy (Donald Forbes on Orlando CBS 6) came pretty close during . Hopefully these guys will play it smart, but unlike in a Cat 1-4, in a 5... you really can't hide... especially in a giant bowl surrounded by water.
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Sportsfreak1989s
Registered User
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Posts: 9
Loc: Lafayette, Louisiana
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Well we just got our first rain band through here in Lafayette Louisiana. The way it is looking that if does not start to make that "curve" that it is suppose to make it will come up into Morgan City, but please don't use my words, that is just what would happen if it continued on it's current North - West path. I am starting to get more and more worried as I see these bands slowly coming ashore. I hope everyone in New Orleans stays safe and god bless everyone in its current path.
Is there still that possibility of Kat coming my way (Lafayette, Louisiana)?
Alot of my family members are also starting to worry, and it is starting to get turned into chaos mode here in Lafayette. I don't know what to think anymore. I would not mind it coming my way because I have an aunt in Mobile Alabama who is just recovering from a stroke she had 3 days after ( they think she had it due to extreme stress due to ). But then again with it coming my way it would put other people in extreme danger . I am in total confusion right now. What do ya'll thing about it staying on that North West path and coming my way?
Everyone is in my prayers and I hope everyone can get out of this safely with their family because life is not replacable. GOOD LUCK ALL AND GOD BLESS
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Impossible Is Nothing
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Quote:
Battened down the boat.....they're saying a surge of at least 15-20' in Mobile Bay....
what's the latest ya'll? Just got back on line. Been hearing all kinds of rumors....People are going crazy around here...
Just one question,Why are you still there???Just watching the news and it is showing people on the beach in Mobile.Are these people insane??Just wondering what goes through peoples minds that stay with a monster storm like this coming.I video taped her coming on shore in Ft Laud.,but that was a cat 1,And I left when things got bad.I am just trying to understand these people.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Clark, I am watching the movement of on radar here in Pcola and I see very little movement..am I missing something because local weather said it is slowing down and your last blog said it was moving at a healthy clip. Am I missing something that radar may not show forward speed well? I am using the site.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I am afraid that if wishing made it so, the storm would have already been torn to shreds by the ones who want it to go another direction and by those who might ignorantly want it to come their way because they do not realize it is not as romantic as the storm stories channel makes it sound. This advice is for those who find benefit in it: the rain will not hurt anyone. The winds will not hurt most people if they are in a shelter of basic construction of stone or wood. If the preparations were made in advance. As the winds become stronger, the barometric pressures will start to drop and this will cause physical and emotional anxiety. Some feel stuperous and drowsy. This is not a good time to drink alcohol, take stimulants or other mood altering chemicals if you do not usually do so. Just remember that it is not all emotional that there are some real physical things going on with your body in response to the changing atmosphere. Do as much as you can to save energy and keep your mind occupied on pleasant things for as long as possible. I can only say that when and if it becomes an emergency, do not panic and do not strike out in the dark or in areas that you are not familiar with and do not go alone if you can avoid it. Last remember those in Florida that you do not know are praying very hard for your safety and survival. We need for you to defeat this storm.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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The met that was previously in NO is now in Mandeville. I guess I understand the person's signature file that comments about Jim Cantore broadcasting in your backyard. He did say that he didn't expect to be there tomorrow morning, but thought they would just move slightly north to I-12. Although I do live in Mandeville, the I-12 interchange is only ~5-6 miles from the Lake, so if reporter is planning on staying there... how bad can it be?
P.S. Is Steve from Metairie out of town yet?
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Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Sun Aug 28 2005 07:10 PM)
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LI Phil
User
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>>> This is not a good time to drink alcohol, take stimulants or other mood altering chemicals if you do not usually do so.
it's not a good idea to drink or take other mood altering substances even if you USUALLY do so...but you do otherwise offer excellent advice...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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flarrfan
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 19
Loc: Spring Hill FL
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Quote:
Is there still that possibility of Kat coming my way (Lafayette, Louisiana)?
It's not looking that way, as satellite and radar for the last couple hours seem to show a slight turn consistent with the track. If that happens you're on the west side and in for some pretty good wind and rain for the next 36 hours, but likely not nearly as much as 75 miles east of you. You could very well see some hurricane winds, though.
Unfortunately, the best case scenario for the largest number of people would be to aim the storm toward you. If the storm could somehow overpower the trough and stay on a NW course toward Morgan City, that would bring the worst of it in over the Atchafalaya swamps, with the least population density of any location on the central coast. That would be bad news for Lafayette, but at least NOLA and points east would miss the Cat 4 and 5 eye.
Been lurking here for a year, since last September...this is the best place on the net to keep up to date on what's going on. Sorry my first post is wishcasting the storm right toward you, probably won't happen, but it would spare a lot of people who are staring down the barrel right now.
Edited by flarrfan (Sun Aug 28 2005 07:19 PM)
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I was covering the Gammut of illegal activity to medical activity that people some times have to take. But you are entirely correct it is never a good time to drink or take stimulants. It is even more dangerous during storms because good judgement is going to be the one thing that will take care of crises.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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I noticed the last hour or so a northward motion of . While it may just be a temporary wobble, if it persists this may have some implication on ultimate landfall (i.e. NO). The on-air MET on MSNBC mentioned this possibility too. It's much too soon to tell, but an interesting development. I think maintains a N-NW motion all the way up to the mouth of the Miss River.
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocal...ne&pid=none
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RJB
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