nate77
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I don't know if this is totally true but i had this passed along to me by a friend of mine.
FEMA is expecting:
1 million (yes, million) homeless for the next year as a result of this storm
50,000 dead
NO underwater for 8 months
Engineers have put it at 60/40 that the Superdome even survives this storm (yes, do the math on those inside if the 40% turns out to be right)
Army Corps of Engineers says subtract 3 ft. from all the levee heights you've heard on the news - the levees were built in the 60s, and avg. subsistation in La. since then adds up to the levees "settling" approximately 3.5 ft. lower than their stated heights
FEMA has put half its man power available nationwide on standby for the aftermath
I fing it hard to believe that a organization like FEMA that is suppose to be helping people would make a statemnt on predicting how many people would die.
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tpratch
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Loc: Maryland
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Superdome:
Last went through wind model tests at 130. Since then, downtown NO has been built up/changed creating what are essentially wind corridors - completely invalidating any tests.
The 200 mph figure was the raw paper number when it was originally drawn up in the 70s.
As I iterated earlier - it truly is a "last resort" place to evac. My prayers are with everyone there, and honestly, I don't believe it's going to hold up nearly as well as people are hoping. Regardless of the numbers FEMA is giving out, I really hope and pray that we only see a fraction of that. Even half of their estimates would be nothing short of a miracle.
YMMV SPSFD
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ShanaTX
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WWLTV seems to be having bandwidth probs. WDSU.com is doin a combo with a NO station - up and broadcasting
They are saying 3 nursing home residents passed away on the bus from NO to Baton Rouge ...
Earlier I caught an interview w the guy running the Superdome. He said it WILL flood .. -14 sealevel. I read they don't really know what wind it will support because of the new buildings near there can cause a wind tunnel effect. There are about 30,000 people there now
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Genesis
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Yeah, consider 10,000 people in a building when power is lost and all that's left is the emergency generator - which runs on diesel fuel, and probably has a relatively short (hours) supply. This assumes the generator is not damaged or destroyed by either wind or innudation, and the electrical panels and distribution system in the stadium isn't located down low where it is subject to flooding and subsequent short-circuits. Oh yeah, the dome has no outside light entry, so when its dark, its REALLY dark. As in CAVE dark. Once the diesel quits all you have left is the battery-powered emergency lights.
Now add to this the loss of lift stations and water pressure into the stadium. You now have 10,000 people in a stadium with limited electrical power, no toilet facilities, and hundreds of thousands of gallons of fetid water on the field.
It certainly beats being in a building that is knocked flat and then innudated by 20' of water.... but I wouldn't call it an ideal place to evacuate to!
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Disaster Master
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I've been in conference calls all day with my superiors with FEMA. There is conflicting information coming from everywhere. FEMA is expecting fatality #'s in excess of 10,000 . In a perfect world everyone has gas money and a dependable vehicle. This is not the case in N.O. I just got word that the superdome has 36750 souls inside of it. It is below sea level. 40 ft waves 14ft below sea level. do the math. this will be ugly.
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age234
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Those numbers on FEMA's expectations, I have heard similar ones several times today on FNC, and that the 'Dome is expected to flood.
(edit) The estimate af 50,000 dead comes from a official, based on a landfalling Cat 5 on its current path (said it again on FNC at 12:54am ET)
They're talking massive refugee camps in northern LA, west TX, and surrounding areas, where people may have to live for weeks or even months. The FEMA rep they were interviewing said there are FEMA camps (of sorts) in FL where people are still living from hurricanes some time ago (maybe years, not 100% on that).
And Accuweather is saying on the record that 50-75% of NO will be flooded.
Long time lurker, first time poster.
Edited by age234 (Mon Aug 29 2005 04:57 AM)
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Saint Taz
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For WWL TV goto www.khou.com. It is WWL sister station in Houston and is streaming WWL.
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Disaster Master
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I was in Punta Gorda the day after. Spent almost 8 months in FL last year for 4 canes. There are trailer parks full of trailers and tents still in that area. Red Cross still serving 3 meals a day.
Tent cities in Miami after "the Almighty One" where absolutely terrible. Spent many days tracking people down in those camps.
Edited by Disaster Master (Mon Aug 29 2005 04:37 AM)
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evergladesangler
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Was it possible to raise the levees to higher levels or was this city always living on borrowed time? It was inevitable that a storm would eventually hit, I just can't figure out why FEMA's own models show such casualties and destruction and nothing was done about it.
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age234
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AFAIK the levees aren't even finished yet. They were shooting for a 2018 completion date, if I remember right. But with the damage that is coming, who knows?
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Disaster Master
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Army Crp has been filling in the voids in the leeve for 3 days. There is only so much they can do. This is a 4 day GOM storm. Not much warning for a project that would take a year to complete.
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palmetto
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I recently read in an issue of Popular Science that there was a plan to build new levees and flood walls to protect the city, but I don't think it ever got off the ground.
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evergladesangler
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I should add that the long range New Orleans radar still shows a west of north movement and the center is almost due south of the city. If the center goes west of the city at least the wind won't push the water directly back into the city, which I guess will only help if the surge itself doesn't flood the city.
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nate77
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If it goes west of the city, that leave sthe city of that north eastern side. That is the worse side of the storm.
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Disaster Master
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Pick your poison. 165mph winds or 30ft storm surge. east you get one. West you get the other. What would you rather have?
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Disaster Master
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Hurricane force winds are now on land. Eye of storm is expected to make landfall around 8am eastern time on monday. 
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evergladesangler
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I'd take my chances with the wind. If the bowl fills up everything is pretty much destroyed. The storm could be weaker if it's over land longer which it would be on a more westward tack.
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nate77
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Honestly I see the Eye hitting land sooner then 8AM, Maybe around 5-7 AM..
Where is WDSU airing from?
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lunkerhunter
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Everglades, it's an optical illusion
New Orleans is 89.9W and the west edge of eyewall is 89.75W
COC is 89.5W 27.9N and is about 165 miles from NO
north edge of eye is 55 miles from land
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/lix_long.shtml
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MikeC
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Max Mayfield is being unusally somber about this system, stating "New Orleans May never be the Same". I hate to agree with him, but I don't think this possible Eyewall Cycle is going to do much to stop it.
God Bless everyone who decided to stay in New Orleans. If areas flood, get to the highest ground, but remember animals, and insects will also be trying to get there. Beware of snakes, balls of fire ants, and more fighting for the same spots.
Hope for a miracle tonight, I don't see any good news right now.
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