Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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i give her credit, an outer feeder band is trying to flare back up in the dry air on the west to southwest side....just think time is running out now... i do think NO is in much better conditions now, they won't see nearly as bad as i thought they could have.... BUT the Gulfprt area, 20-30miles east or west.... is going to get the worst part. (STORM SURGE/WAVES and 100mph plus winds)...... i went with an AL/MS landfall with a 10mile east or west buffer...appears i didn't miss by much! i am not sure about eyewall beeing closed right now.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Well its getting noisy here in Gulf Breeze, that all to familiar sound of the wind hitting the plywood outside the window. Hopefully she is weakiening a bit. I'm afraid that the small land area she will be crossing soon will not have that much effect since the srea is 80%. WV imagry seems to show a path just east of north. This will put the eye, even if it heads due north, east of the city which sits at roughly 90 degrees longitude, but makes an impact on the mississippi coast even more likely. She still has plenty of time left over water.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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tornado warning up north of hancock MS...cell near Bay saint louis from what i can tell...going right over city now
AT 304 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES EAST
OF BAY ST. LOUIS...MOVING WEST AT 55 MPH.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 29 2005 08:17 AM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I went back and looked at the map plot that I just referenced.
Center of storm was 85 miles off shore at the time of the last fix...based on a due north movement.
This would take over a few towns in the Lower Parishes, but mainly over marshy area with few trees.
In other words...not much to slow her winds...topographically. We would have to hope for dry air entrainment to take the 'wind' out of her.
The bad thing about her going up the East side of New Orleans is that I would think that she could push the MS River backwards in addition to pushing water into Lake Ponchartrain. I think I'll put that theory away. I don't like that thought.
***Note: WLOX TV Met just put up a track from his "Viper-like" computer with the same points that I had come up with. Then turning some toward the east after passing over the MS/LA border at the GOM/ Pearl River.
Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 29 2005 08:21 AM)
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Margie
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Well that's not good for MS Gulf Coast. That's less than 10mi W of where Camille hit, and she was a much smaller storm. Even with just due N movement and no eastward component at all that puts the (remainder of?) the eastern eyewall right around Long Beach or Gulfport, and the remaining strongest winds from there to the MS/AL border.
However there is likely to be some eastward component to the movement, and in addition, migration of the eastern eyewall to the east as the eye expands and possibly even falls apart. So that moves the eastern eyewall even further east on the MS coastline.
Regarding my earlier post, it does appear that the remaining stronger bands on the east side of the storm are taking a big hit as soon as even the leading part of the band approaches land. In fact there even seems to be a kind of shock wave propagating effect down the band, reducing the water vapor along the entire length of the band that is still in the gulf, when even just one edge of the band comes in contact with land (0645Z to 0715Z wv sat images on floater).
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Mon Aug 29 2005 08:27 AM)
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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wow another plane was able to get up and take off while Biloxi is getting hammered right now
URNT11 KNHC 290825
97779 08224 21291 91418 30400 02048 08088 /3997
RMK AF306 2112A OB 01
two AF planes up... one nearing end.. not far to fly home though!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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They aren't recovering to Keesler. That last plane up should be the last plane out of Keesler. Gulfport is reporting winds near 24mph right now...so it's not too bad.
I had a PM earlier that indicated the planes were recovering to a base in TX...which is normal for Hurricanes landfalling near Keesler.
Local TV anchor said the NWS has reported a 60 foot wave offshore...somewhere.
That would break and ' records. Wow!
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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yeah, but i think there was an underwater measurement of 91ft wave from . Yeah i also heard they would recover in TX...
winds here now 20-25mph... on the beach... guest to 30 or so.... nice wind sound right now...
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI5_wv_loop.gif
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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still open:......PRESSURE WAY UP
URNT12 KNHC 290834
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/08:23:00Z
B. 28 deg 38 min N
089 deg 37 min W
C. 700 mb 2367 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 159 deg 130 kt
G. 070 deg 018 nm
H. EXTRAP 917 mb
I. 10 C/ 3013 m
J. 19 C/ 3012 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE-SW
M. C32
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 2012A OB 22
MAX FL WIND 132 KT SE QUAD 07:06:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
EYE OPEN 150-230 DEGREES
well we had a very stong cat 5 yesterday... and looking more like we won't see it again from .... she about to make landfall in the swamp area....i waitng to see the ne turn....haven't seen it YET!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 29 2005 08:50 AM)
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pcola
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Thats great news on the pressure but did you ever think that you would see a pressure of 917mb and follow it with "pressure way up""! What a storm.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
PRESSURE WAY UP
EYE OPEN 150-230 DEGREES
No...the last recon was 915 it's only gone up 2mb since then.
However that's really something about the eyewall, er, half an eyewall. Of course the sat images are some time behind this but recall how the eye has looked since 0715Z on sat
Edit -- the 4am downgrades the winds to 150mph and speed increases, as expected, to 15mph. Still, says she won't reach the LA/MS border until this aft. Some long morning for MS Gulf Coast.
Well the discussion doesn't mention anything about an or a 2nd eyewall, however on radar it appears there is a 2nd band (also only halfway around) and my thinking was that the inner eyewall would collapse and we'd be left with a ~50mi wide eye. The discussion pointed out the remainder of time before 2nd landfall in LA/MS was near warm water and raised the possibility that the existing eye could redevelop. They seem to allow however for the possibility that may be down to a Cat 2 by 2nd landfall with this statement, "...may be enough to keep a major hurricane when it reaches the Louisiana Mississippi border area."
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Mon Aug 29 2005 09:25 AM)
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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from a 905-08 to a 915-17...yeah... looking at latest sat..... she's on a down trend now i think.... there could be ONE last chance just before sunrise i think for her to throw up something, but i don't think so.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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jr928
Weather Guru
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Posts: 101
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how many times did I say dry air last night. finally, I hope it keeps pumping in
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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another twarning for area just north of NO
* AT 353 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PASS CHRISTIAN...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTH OF LONG
BEACH...MOVING WEST AT 60 MPH.
mile a minute? 
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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making landfall over swamp now....part of LA, could be considered swamp fall?.....just east of little town grand isle, LA
County names on map
http://stormhunter7.tripod.com/radar/lixswampfall.png
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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MarcoResi
Weather Watcher
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Loc:
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HI How far from New Orleans is the Eye of is she going to be a direct hit on NO? thanx
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jr928
Weather Guru
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what does the eastern track of N.O mean with the surge there?
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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small gusts inland in Mobile...expect things to deteriorate..
when I went to sleep....it was gonna hit to the left...now it looks like the
eye will pass to the east of New Orleans...
Isn't there an easterly component to this?
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Movement now is due N.
Looks like right now all those little towns along the "toe" of LA are getting hit with (what is left of) the eyewall of what is a strong Cat 4 right now. i didn't intend to stay up this late but I am really curious to see just how much going over this peninsula will further disrupt the eyewall.
It looks like many hours of the MS coast getting hammered by this thing.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Mon Aug 29 2005 09:40 AM)
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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nothern eywall about 50miles away fomr NO.... think eye will past just to east of NO.....
been watching the SR velocity loop of time fram from 2:42 cdt to just now 4:30cdt.... i think it may show a small vortice inside of the "stadium" or center of storm....as it moved to the north.... pretty cool.... it may not be that, but that's what i come up with....watched it a hundred times....
you may be able to see it on the ridge site
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/lix_N0S_lp.shtml
click the Storm Relative loop
watch the center spinn faster than the rim of center.... look in the middel...
works better if you set the speed all the way up
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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