Genesis
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New vortex message is out and its right on the projected path:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html
Right up the middle..... Pressure up 4mb though..... that's good news....
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pcola
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Information if you know of evacuees on the road. The florida Dept of Hwys. is shutting down thw I-10 bridge in Pensacola, the same one that washed away in . Those heading east need to exit at FL exit 5, US 90 and follow it Approx 15 miles to Avalon Blvd South in Santa Rosa County, between Pace and Milton, then back to I 10. We have lost power 3 times here in Gulf Breeze thus far. Boy am I glad I have a lantern.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Colleen A.
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I thought that when Geraldo had on the Major that he DID say the pressure was up to 908mb. It was hard to hear him but this would correspond with the new recon data.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
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Quote:
My thinking is it doing .
Which is exactly what the Recon pilot said would be a saving grace for N.O. Let's hope that this happens. Anything, anything that helps to weaken this storm will be a blessing.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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nate77
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Tornado warning now for Souther n New Orleans.
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WhitherWeather
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Quote:
Pressure up 4mb though..... that's good news....
The new National Hurricane Center discussion says: "RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL IS IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES" (Caps in original).
Could that account for the rise in mb--after which it could drop again?
It is good that it's gone up, but it's still in a rarified range.
I'll also quote this quote of note from the discussion: "KATRINA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OF AT LEAST CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST" (Caps in original, bold added).
WhitherWeather
Edited by WhitherWeather (Mon Aug 29 2005 03:29 AM)
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BTfromAZ
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Quote:
ya'll might as well say it...hell...i'm done with any more edits tonight...post away about gas prices...
Assuming you mean that, I will try to say again what was deleted earlier, not because it's about gas PRICES but because it's about gas AVAILABILITY and may make what is a local disaster, however awful, into a national one. 30% of US gasoline is refined in the 12 or so refineries in the path of this storm. Also in the storm's path are 500,000 barrels per day of production and the only US oil terminal capable of offloading the largest oil tankers. The Mayor of New Orleans has said this is potentially a catastrophe for the country, not just for his city.
I personally love New Orleans. I go there every winter if I can and I really love it. I've also travelled all through the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf coast and while I don't want to see any of it destroyed, for the sake of the nation and the national economy, we will all be better off if the storm veers somewhat east and spares the oil industry in southern Louisiana. That's a fact.
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Big Red Machine
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Quote:
Which is exactly what the Recon pilot said would be a saving grace for N.O. Let's hope that this happens. Anything, anything that helps to weaken this storm will be a blessing.
Unfortunately not. There is still time for the storm to have an and come in strengthening, or regardless of if it doesn't strengthen the overall windfield will increase due to the . It's a moot point anyways. I know we want to find solace in the little victories, but 5 or 4 it does not matter. New Orleans would be much better served by a jog to the NE than weakening to a four.
Edited by Big Red Machine (Mon Aug 29 2005 03:33 AM)
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nate77
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Quote:
Quote:
Pressure up 4mb though..... that's good news....
The new National Hurricane Center discussion says: "RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL IS IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES" (Caps in original).
Could that account for the rise in mb--after which it could drop again?
It is good that it's gone up, but it's still in a rarified range.
I'll also quote this quote of note from the discussion: "KATRINA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OF AT LEAST CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST" (Caps in original, bold added).
WhitherWeather
They said thi is exactly whats happening..
They also said it has enough water to re-intenisfy and for the pressure to drop.
I wouldnt read too much into this
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nate77
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It also slowed down, which means re-intensifing is likely
I hear one guy say the water temps on the coast is warm, another says there is a patch of colder water on the coast.
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jr928
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What time is projected landfall?
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Genesis
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Oh, I didn't read much into it, just that I suspect the folks over in NO will take every millibar they can get right now, and the more of them they get, the better it is.
With that said, I don't know that a 4 or 5 makes much difference, as has been noted. The flooding potential here is huge - does it really matter if your house is reduced to matchsticks or just the roof comes off if its filled with 15' of water?! I don't think so!
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Puig
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I saw a MET on Fox news (Accuweather) where he was claiming that the winds in NO wont exceed 120 to 125mph. He says the worst of the storm will pass NO to the east. The MET actually wanted to be on the record to state the above. Did anyone else hear this as well? Seems like a hopeful prediction to me.
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Terra
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I just doesn't have the appearance on satellite that it is undergoing an ... I mean, I hope it does, but I hope it does in such a timely fashion that it landfalls during the weakening stage and doesn't have the opportunity to restrengthen.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Rick on boat in Mobile
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and looking at the loops.....there isn't really any real hope for New Orleans....the post by Big Red, I think...of a kick right..is their only hope....if you look at the path...the right side of the eyewall will pass over New Orleans.....it HAS to start kicking north and North East...or....what we all knew could happen...
is happening....
20,000 dead....maybe more
I hope that your decimal points were omitted!~danielw
Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 29 2005 03:54 AM)
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nate77
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Terra, I hope this si right too, but what scares me is the sudden decrease in forward speed from 13 to 10 MPH. This could really help intensify it.
120-125 MPH is still deadly and can cause extensive damage.. Im worried about sea surge in NO.
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BTfromAZ
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I believe the big difference if it goes east of NO vs west has to do with the city's topography. Lake Pontchartrain being NORTH of the city, if it goes east of town, the winds will be from the north and drive the lake waters (and waves) into the levees, possibly over them, and into the city. If it were to go west of NO, the winds would be southerly and drive the lake water away from NO. Much of the damage and loss of life is likely to be from flooding and a passage west of NO could significantly diminish it.
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lunkerhunter
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Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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are probably now hitting this station.
gusts 80-90mph
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=burl1&unit=E&tz=STN
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nate77
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Quick question...
WWLTV is goinf off the air at midnight and a station in Baton Rogue will pick up coverage.. Will it be aired?
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BTfromAZ
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Yes, Puig, I heard it however my attention was most focused on his other prediction of substantial flooding in the city of NO in spite of his more easterly track.
By the way, I have been wondering through all this why I have yet to hear anyone (here or on TV) talk about the Bay St. Louis/Pass Christian area. They are so lovely and if Accuweather is correct, I think they could take the worst hit of all.
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