Black Pearl
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Mobile Bay
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Quote:
please turn right...
no offense to the good folks in Mobile and eastward...
None taken. We totally understand and are praying for New Orleans as well.
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Lisa NC
Weather Guru
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Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
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Katrina is still on the forecasted path. With a more northward movement not expected for a few more hours.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />
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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 82
Loc: Central Arkansas
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Certainly you jest. I pray for God to just suck up to heaven and spare the rest of us.
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character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking
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nate77
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
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Thanks Ralph, Max Mayfield kept bringing up CAT 3 when Larry Kin was talking to him. There is a good cgance this thing could go down to CAT 3 before landfall? Espiaclly with the cooler waters on the coast.
I would love to see it go down to CAT 2, But I dont see that happening.
Meterologist on WWLTV just said that a new eyewall may be forming and that could cause strengthing. NOT GOOD.
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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UNtil I see a drastci rise in pressure, I will not believe this storm has truly weakened that much. I know some on here don't like him, but Joe B was on FNC earlier with scathing comments about how the should use pressure and not the winds found by Recon as a measuring stick. I mean it is truly a shot in the dark if Recon finds the highest winds.
Also, I still believe she will clip the very tip of LA and hit near Biloxi.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Let's not all forget that just because the focus is on NO, that the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama are also going to get hammered severely. This storm will have a very large impact all the way through the midwest and Great Lakes.
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Michael
PWS
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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Posts: 125
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Question - where is the getting the updates? The last vortex fix I have on the track .vs. fix (from SWFMD's web page at http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html) still shows 904mb and a track right on the projected path.
A 20+ mph drop in windspeed would be associated with significant pressure rise....
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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The Mayor of Biloxi, A.J. Holloway, was just on FNC about 10-15 minutes ago. He said he had just heard that the winds had dropped from 160 to 140. FNC is trying to corrobarate that information, but I seriously doubt that the Mayor would go on TV saying that without being absolutely positive.
A Cat 4 is nothing to play with, but it's sure a hell of a lot better than 175mph.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Trekman
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Fort Walton Beach FL
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TORNADO WARNING FOR DESTIN FLORIDA UNTIL 10 PM MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHWEST
As of 942pm the tornado warning has been cancelled. Doppler radar evidently thought it saw a rotation, but then could not find it in subsequent sweeps. Okaloosa county is very awake now
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Went though: Erin ('95), Opal ('95), Danny ('97), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Dennis ('05)
Emergency Administration and Management program at Northwest Florida State College
Edited by Trekman (Mon Aug 29 2005 02:44 AM)
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nate77
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
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Max Mayfield is coming on CNN, If anyone wants to see what he has to say.
Also, I agree that the should look at the pressure, still the cold water could help this out alot (To Slow it)
Also dry air is building in western Louisana.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Based on the latest analysis of the upper air and moisture and wind field ahead of dangerous Hurricane .. There appears to be dry air and more southwesterly shear across the area of approach for . This could weaken somewhat as even the satellite enhancement is beginning to show some raggedness to the north. This is the area where the dry air aloft is located and the upper southwesterly shearing winds are located analyzied on the didgiatamosphere program I have plotted here.
So several things that could weaken is dry air aloft to it's north and west of approaching . Also the rapid change to a more baroclinical type air mass with polar westerlies already pushing rapidly as has been the last few days south and east from the Middle of the U.S.
Let's hope and pray that the hurricane coninues to weaken before landfall. The latest recon data shows the beginning signs of the weakening effects from what I described above. The enhanced colorized satellite picture shows the raggedness on the outer northern circulation of ..this is some evidence of the more unfavorable environment.
I am crossing my fingers that weakens enough it would not be surprising that it weakens rapidly too and joggles east a bit bumping into the dry air to the north and west and stronger soutwesterlies now over the deep south.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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I think he corrected himself upon questioning by Geraldo and said that it would be great if Kat would come in at 140mph. I would be very surprised with that kind of a change in strength.
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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NO. Unfortunately guys, it's not weakening. If anything it actually appears to be strengthening. Intensity is still 140 kts. The mayor was wrong. He confused kts with mph. Storm is looking better on IR. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
Not likely at all to become cat 3.
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Actually the warmest water 32C is along the coast - especially along South LA shore.
here's the last clean (cloudless) shot
http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/05aug/gm_merged.n15.05aug21_1137.png
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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you can always count on cnn to phuck up a live broadcast...sorry 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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nate77
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
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Anyone have any cam links or hear anything about the SE Corner of Louisana. I feel they should be seeing some serious winds right now.
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WhitherWeather
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 20
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904 mb is what it still says in the upper left here, too, and a nice reality check would be 904 vs. Camille. Factor in the size of Kat vs. Camille. Until the size and MB change significantly, I don't think that those whistling "Cat 3" past the waveyard are necessarily providing a useful service to those in the cone.
WhitherWeather
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Quote:
still the cold water could help this out alot (To Slow it)
Also dry air is building in western Louisana.
Nate, there is no cold water. The storm is in the warmest eddy in the entire Atlantic basin.
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=BURL1
Southwest Pass, LA Station
28.90 N 89.43 W
about 90 miles from current COC
sustained 60kts (69mph)
gusts to 78kts (90mph)
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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Posts: 161
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The mayor may have been hoping....cause he knows what this is gonna do......
yeah, when ya think about it...to go from 140 to 120 is a serious drop...SOMETHING would have to cause that....and nothing is....it's a huge freight train.
Andrew had these winds.....but was smaller.....
I'd like to think we're out of the woods...but we're not.
Interestingly...the last storms to hit when they go north....about 5 of them....all kicked right before finally hitting land...
Ivan did.
Opal did,
Dennis did
most of them kick right....there must be some sort of pressure gradient difference that causes the hurricanes to do that...
wonder why the models and forecaster don't pick it up...maybe it's a coincidence...don't know.
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