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Archives 2000s >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Just lookin....
      #5151 - Tue Sep 24 2002 11:09 AM

Jax/Savannah also show up and forecast shows a NE move thru the southeast. Their far from making a firm call, TS warnings all the way to Destin.......

Joe in JAX


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: For the record...
      #5152 - Tue Sep 24 2002 11:11 AM

Steve, I agree.... I'm still going with 50 miles either side of 90W....

another fact... it now has winds up to 60 mph... I think this is way ahead of the strengthening forecast models by several hours...

gotta love it provided it doesn't get any stronger than a weak Cat 2... Hey, I've been in strong Cat 2 storms and they got a lot more kick than some people are giving them credit for..


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Lookin at Lili
      #5153 - Tue Sep 24 2002 11:13 AM

The latest visible loop shows that Lili is not as healthy as the NHC advisories seem to report ( has winds up to 70mph). The center is still out-running the convection with the left half of the storm consisting of little more than low-level clouds. However, the LLC itself does not appear to be exposed & the forward speed HAS slowed somewhat, so Lili might intensify. That central pressure of 1004mb is certainly not indicative of a 70 mph system.

Lou


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: For the record...
      #5154 - Tue Sep 24 2002 11:21 AM

Recmon... I see the same thing as you, actually saw it about an hour earlier... my opinion is that we might have a stacking problem with Izzy.. the actual LLC and mid level centers are not stacked as neatly as they should and it is possible IMO that the center you reference is actually the MLC... as the MLC might be trailing the LLC... my opinion for what its worth...

recon obiously would have a much better fix on the LLC than trying to find the center with vis in this case


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usufruct
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 7
Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5156 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:05 PM

So, Hurricane Fans, when was the last time three storms were forcaste likely to become hurricanes in one day? Although I'll admit it's a bit of stretch to say so, Florida could have hurricanes approaching from three directions over a one week period affecting first West Florida, then South Florida, then possibly Central Florida. I know, unlikely, but for the first time I can remember, the possibility is there.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
IKL
      #5157 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:12 PM

isidore.. center is mostly low clouds. maybe daytime heating will start some convection near the core, and the upward forcing by the storm will start the snowball rolling again. as the discussion says, southern main rainband is still in the BOC, once that clears it should mark the latest time intensification should begin. once the CDO is established isidore should begin to recover fairly quickly. btw agree models have a westward bias, but not much of one. more and more confident impact point will be se louisiana.
lili.. 1006mb and 70mph.. unusual wind pressure relationship, but there is recon info with 76kt flight level winds to confirm this intensity. westward motion still slowing.. only a couple more mph and the deepening curve should steepen. interesting that in the long range even if this storm comes up east of florida, it could either head for nc or get caught if ridging builds back quickly enough.
kyle.. near the end of the forecast period supposed to be slowing down and maybe bending left of its path. basically agree with bastardi that kyle is stuck and should be meandering for quite some time, working its way westward. yesterday's mrf had an eastward moving wave in the subtropics near the bahamas on october 3-4.. which may represent kyle. around that time the eastern u.s. is supposed to be under deep, strong ridging.. but this is 10 days into the future and not reliable.
got a feeling that we'll have one more development before september is out. even with all the crowding going on.
HF 1614z24september


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Lili is There
      #5158 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:25 PM

She is still be affected by the ULL to her SSW which is disrupting her appearance currently. She should be passing that later tonight and should organize in a hurry tomorrow. This is gonna track a bit further west than the track shown by the NHC. Like HF said, even if further east, may get a "sympathetic" ridge to push it back west courtesy of Kyle. Izzy is still sitting pretty much over the same general location he has been for the past few hours. That is not good. He's dipping his toe in the water to get oriented and will be ready to intensify as soon as he shoves off. More time over water is not a good thing. Moderte cat 2 IMO before landfall. If you've ever been in a large storm such as this you'll be surprised at the power a big cat 2 can give you. There is a lot of inertia with this storm and you will be feeling it well before it arrives. If he manages to get to cat 3 look out, ya get a lot more damage witha large storm. Cheers!! Steve H.

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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Lili is There
      #5159 - Tue Sep 24 2002 12:46 PM

One thing Izzy is not is moving NNW at 8mph.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Lili is There
      #5160 - Tue Sep 24 2002 01:43 PM

Another thing about large storms is that they soften up the ground with all of the rain prior to the winds. This will cause many more trees to fall and put more prople inland in danger.

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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Lili is There
      #5161 - Tue Sep 24 2002 02:03 PM

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST

At this rate he'll hit MS in a week.....

A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

The dreaded "is expected" comes up in a forecast again.....



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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Warnings and Watches
      #5162 - Tue Sep 24 2002 02:18 PM

Help y'all !? I'm confused. Last update has Izzy STILL going basically due north at lon 89.9 yet the hurricane watch area only goes to Pascagoula at around, what, lon 88.3 ish? That sure seems like an awful narrow margin for error, eye wobble, direction change or drift, etc. When is this expected north-west turn supposed to happen ? Is it even going to happen?? Or, will the hurricane watch (warning??) maybe be posted further over at the 5pm update ??

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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Warnings and Watches
      #5163 - Tue Sep 24 2002 02:36 PM

i think the warning/watch may go to the east a little unless izzy moves to the west a little before the 5 advisory comes out. i with you in that it appears to be moving more to the north than the models are showing. notice it has slowed down also. a stronger storm???

Edited by andy1tom (Tue Sep 24 2002 02:38 PM)


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Dummies at the NWS reset the storm totals!
      #5164 - Tue Sep 24 2002 02:39 PM

We were between 1-3" in SE LA so far. They reset the counter @ 12:51pm today. Now all of SE LA, SE MS and SW AL have gotten between 0" and .6" of rain. I'll tell you this: there's no flooding downtown, but it hasn't stopped raining yet today. Here's my personal update:

I found out from Jefferson Parish School Board that schools are closed tomorrow and Thursday. I talked to my dad and offered to help him bring in all the crap that's in his yard and garage. He tried to say, "nah", but then again, due to back problems, he's not supposed to lift anything greater than 20 pounds to begin with. I talked to my wife who reminded me that I needed a carton of cigarettes. Oh yeah - can't be without 'dem smokes if push comes to shove. Other than that, we're all set. I don't see a massive tidal flooding event no matter how strong Izzy becomes, so I'm not worrying about an axe. If need be, I'll bum one off my dad today for the roof just in case. Otherwise, we've got most of our supplies - batteries, beer, flashlights, beer, snacks, beer, etc. so we're good to go.

Hope you're all set too!

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Dummies at the NWS reset the storm totals!
      #5165 - Tue Sep 24 2002 02:45 PM

That reset may have been a mode change from standard precip to tropical mode. I seem to recall hearing that the mode switch resets the storm totals.

--------------------
Jim


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Warnings and Watches
      #5166 - Tue Sep 24 2002 02:57 PM

My two cents worth is this:

1)The forecast models have shifted back slighty to the west. No matter what you may actually see happening in the short term, and since he's really more stalled then anything else, they won't change their longterm(48-72hrs) forecast untill the models (which have been terrible with this storm) move one way or the other. They have been going in an east-west cycle for the last week. So don't expect any changes at 5, but maybe at 11. Look, at 5:00 PM Sunday, when they changed their tune and raelly started calling for a northward turn, they said that in 48hrs, or 5:00 PM to today he'd be at 22.3N,92.7W. It was only off by 200 miles .Izzy really, really doe not need to be compared to any other storm; he's been doing things his own way the whole time, and he has no respect for history IMHO.

2) Politics now comes into play. Any changes in the watches and warnings will cause local goverments to step up or step down their preps. These things cost money, and could cause evacs that may not be needed.They more than likely feel that with TS warnings(not a watch) their covered, at least for the moment. Watch Lili, if she starts that classic turn into the Bahama's, send Florida into a panic. When Floyd came by, the whole southern part of the state jamed I95 and turned it into a parking lot. Even if we had wanted to leave here in NE FL we could't, there was no way out.

Joe in JAX


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Warnings and Watches
      #5167 - Tue Sep 24 2002 03:11 PM

I don't even want to get into the "politics." Politics had me calling for the head of the past NHC Director. Saw the current one on TV the other day saying "politics will not come into play in our warnings." I will take them at their word for now. I don't see an indications of under warning right now. I am one of the first to go off on a blatent underwarning like some of the South Florida systems in the last few years. I think what they have up now is prudent and flexible.

--------------------
Jim


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5168 - Tue Sep 24 2002 03:26 PM

For about the last hour Isadore appears to be moving
to the northeast.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8conus.html


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5169 - Tue Sep 24 2002 03:32 PM

STORMS STARTING AROUND CENTER

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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Warnings and Watches
      #5170 - Tue Sep 24 2002 03:32 PM

The best example of politics getting involved was Bertha. Gov. Chiles, after hearing the NHC say "a turn to the north is expected" for 36 hrs, but not happen, told them if they didn't issue a hurricane warning for FL, he'd do it on his own. They did, Bertha turned(but right on the coastline), and everybody(down here) was OK. But they scared the crap out of alot people by holding off so long. I would always rather be on the safe side, but it's too early to say something has changed enough with Izzy to issue a wider watch area. I think their OK right now.

Joe in JAX


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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: Warnings and Watches
      #5171 - Tue Sep 24 2002 03:42 PM

That is a classic story about Chiles. Forecaster Garcia at key West wrote and awesome discussion at 3 AM as Irene was coming in and said it has to come into the Keys/South Florida due to the setup which was in the face of NHC at the time as they had it up the West Coast. I call the owner of my company and say call off work or you will be letting people go at noon anyway..he said you are crazy, schools are open, etc. I said..you trust local government more than me..work was called off...I was the hero around the office as it was mayham in sofla that afternoon and our employees were high and dry and more importantly the owner was too. Guess who makes the decisions about closing the office now? Guess whose office is a beehive of activity around hurricane time?

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