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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 295 (Nicholas) , Major: 311 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1365 (Michael) Major: 1365 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Isidore and Lili
      #5172 - Tue Sep 24 2002 03:43 PM

Isidore: He is starting to strengthen again, as evidenced by the convection building around the center of the circulation and the rainbands intensifying NE of the center. Should be a hurricane in 24-36 hours. I'm still thinking further E of where NHC is forecasting lanfall, I'd go with Alabama/Florida border. Low category 2 looks good at landfall...effects will be felt from Isidore for a couple hundred miles. Everybody will get something from Isidore.

Lili: This is another problematic storm. Recon finds that the winds keep getting higher and higher, but the pressure stays the same or goes up slightly. This may be because of the upper-level low to the S and SE of Lili, but she will be moving away from this feature soon. Should intensify to around 80-90 knots. Pressure should start to fall as well. I'm thinking Florida is going to get quite a threat from her, but perhaps not a direct hit. Lili is getting larger at this point and I'm thinking she will be pretty big by the time she nears Florida. I agree with NHC forecast through 72 hours. After that, she will probably crawl NW or NNW towards S. Florida. She will be knocked down by interaction with Cuba, but she should strengthen right back up. Best bet at this point...Lili moves north parallel to Florida EC with winds of 80-90 knots and intensifies slowly. Expect to feel some pretty strong effects...but don't expect direct hit at this time...although any west movement could put her onshore.

The media is going to go ape #!@$ here...two storms with a day or two apart. One makes landfall just west of Florida and then a classic storm going through the Bahamas perhaps. Going to be a busy late-week and weekend.

Bucs 26 and Rams 14. Kurt Warner...4 interceptions. Marshall Faulk gets a neck injury. Need I say more? Bucs are only going to get better...

Kevin


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
About the "Appears to be heading NE"...
      #5173 - Tue Sep 24 2002 03:50 PM

I see it in that loop, but put on the gridlines:

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurr.html

If that ain't stationary or drift due north, I'll - nevermind, I've had my fill of hats this week.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Kevin - I disagree on Lili...
      #5174 - Tue Sep 24 2002 03:55 PM

As of now, I'm seeing probably a west coast of FL storm or even a N FL storm. I don't see her paralelling the east coast unless some effect from Kyle forces her up.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Izzy and Lizzy...err Lili
      #5175 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:03 PM

Isidore: I am going to stick with Al/MS border, no reason to change now. Still say cat 1 marginal cat 2.

Lili: Roll the dice. Just hope we don't crap out. The scenarios are all so close right now. A curve somewhere around Florida seems logical to me. However, history has my gut saying lili will follow in Isidores footsteps to Western Cuba and the GOM. Not sure what kind of interaction Lili will have with kyle. Hopefully, the situation will be clearer in 24-48 hours.

--------------------
Jim


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5176 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:04 PM

THE VISIBLE LOOP LOOKS LIKE A CAT 4 ROTATON WILD THIS STORM IS GOING TO GET STRONG FAST HE IS PULLING EVERTHING IN FAST SOULD BE HURR SOON

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Kevin - I disagree on Lili...
      #5177 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:04 PM

Well Isidore looks to be moving slowly N or NNE per latest vis loop. Looks as though it is slowly strengthing as bands begin to wrap back around the center. Well my north FL landfall (Apalachicola) maybe a bust? Still think panhandle has a chance at this for sure. Look for it be a CAT 2 at best when it makes landfall (100mph or so). As Isidore makes landfall Thursday or so Lili will be ready to take its turn NW towards FL? My bet is it will at least get very close to florida if not lanfall but again depends on front moving down this way this weekend.

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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: About the "Appears to be heading NE"...
      #5178 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:05 PM

That's what I think, too. He is doing one thing: buying himself a little time to get cranked up again.

I am begining to get a little more confident that Lili WILL NOT BE a GOM problem. Too many signs that she will turn almost due NW in three days. Cuba ends up getting hit on both ends
in less than two weeks. Some people have all the luck

Joe in Jax
Jags say Jets don't float very well, 2-1 after this week.


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Joe
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
Re: Kevin - I disagree on Lili...
      #5179 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:05 PM

Last post was posted by me.

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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Kevin - I disagree on Lili...
      #5180 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:20 PM

I could certainly understand what you mean, but the front moving down simply won't allow Lili a direct route into the GOMEX. However, I can't rule out that if Lili threatens EC Florida, the ridging from Kyle would force her over the peninsula and into the GOMEX. I don't see that occuring at this point, but it is a possibility. The weather is hard to predict, talk about fickleness and uncertainty.

Kevin


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Agree on slight NNE drift for Isidore last few frames...
      #5181 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:33 PM

I've go him at 22.3, 89.78 as of the 19:15UTC visible picture.

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Kevin - I disagree on Lili...
      #5182 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:36 PM

Izzy drifting east.
Recon found the center @ 22.18n 89.42w
Due east of last update.
Don't think Florida is out of the woods yet.


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Kevin - I disagree on Lili...
      #5183 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:37 PM

607
URNT12 KNHC 241932
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/1932Z
B. 22 DEG 18 MIN N
89 DEG 42 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1306 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 156 DEG 54 KT
G. 048 DEG 125 NM
H. 988 MB
I. 17 C/ 1514 M
J. 19 C/ 1525 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF977 2710A ISIDORE OB 11
MAX FL WIND 54 KT NE QUAD 1851Z.



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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Agree on slight NNE drift for Isidore last few frames...
      #5184 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:43 PM

Anon,

That is actually 29.3N 89.7W...there are 60 minutes in each degree, so 18 minutes north is approximately 0.3 degrees north, same for the longitude.


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Agree on slight NNE drift for Isidore last few frames...
      #5185 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:47 PM

I'm very limited in posting time (at work). Perhaps someone could provide more detail?

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Kevin - I disagree on Lili...
      #5186 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:47 PM

048 in direction? that is NNE, no?

--------------------
doug


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Kevin - I disagree on Lili...
      #5187 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:54 PM

030 NNE
045 NE
060 ENE


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meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5188 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:59 PM

isidore is moving more to the east.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Kevin - I disagree on Lili...
      #5189 - Tue Sep 24 2002 04:59 PM

Does anyone have the feeling that the NHC forecast track for izzy may be shifted east? at least the watches should proabably since the storm is so large winds will be felt far away from the center. Look at all the dry air on w/v the storm cant go anymore west i dont think. so what do u all think??

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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
I agree.......
      #5190 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:04 PM

It's looking more NNE. Folks in Mobile- Destin need to stay on it.

I sure am.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
One girl against two guys?
      #5191 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:04 PM

As I look out my window and watch another rain band move by, and now that my boss just called to tell me not to come into work tomorrow(I work outside) , NHC is forecasting Lili to be a classic coast runner. But unlike most of the others that come this way, some butthead named Kyle is sitting out there, ready to start playing bully, and maybe give her a cheap shot, or not let her turn all the way back out. Isn't this a great time of the year?

Joe in JAX


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