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Archives 2000s >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: One girl against two guys?
      #5192 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:20 PM

SirCane i live in Gulf Breeze across the bridge. Well if we go under a watch later I aint going to school. I think Mobile should watch out they seem like a prime target right now. I have never been in a hurricane an why i am not hoping this storm comes my way it'll be a new expirenece for me so i am not wishcasting. Lets here some more from rick in mobile. haha

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
It's moving NE...
      #5193 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:22 PM

and if we don't see a west vector, and I mean pretty quick, we are gonna see a Panhandle landfall...the model tracks all called for Izzy to get to about 92-93W...there's gonna have to be a serious west vector change for that to happen.

Beven is a good forecaster, but a little close to the vest...Let's just say I am gonna have an interesting weathercast in about 40 mins...the tracks are gonna HAVE to shift east...



--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: One girl against two guys?
      #5194 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:26 PM

Right Joe. Isidore is something that everybody in the central/eastern GOMEX need to keep eyes on. His effects will be felt well east...and Melbourne mentioned the possibility of rotating storms with Isidore.

After that, our attention must turn immediately to Lili. The ridge between the two (produced by Kyle) will likely materialize. Should allow Lili to move due north along the Florida EC, perhaps even bump her slightly inland. I'm thinking the ridge could get her very close or right at category 3 status. Looks like trouble if nothing weird happen to her in the next 48 hours.

Kevin


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: It's moving NE...
      #5195 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:27 PM

Jason what are u guessing the intensity may be? I am thinking it may be near 90mph i dont really know though. here is a guess cat1 - cat2 somwhere between there? can u please help me i'd appreciate it.


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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: It's moving NE...
      #5196 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:28 PM

Whew ! Well JK, I'm glad I'm not the ONLY one who thinks the warnings should be east of where they are..... but I guess they're gonna wait until the 11pm to do that ? Or, worse yet, the 5am tomorrow ??

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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: It's moving NE...
      #5197 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:29 PM

Correct Jason. Isidore is just a tad shy of 90W...models at 92-93, no way that will happen without a westerly component to the motion very soon. Tick...tick...tick, the track is just waiting to be shifted east.

Kevin


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: It's moving NE...
      #5198 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:30 PM

I'm thinking strong Cat 1 at this point...but cat 2 isn't out of the picture at this point.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: It's moving NE...
      #5199 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:31 PM

Panhandle landfall would also give Izzy that much more time over the water. Worse-case senerios are spinning counter-clockwise in my head as Lili comes at FL. Much like the Gulf coast, we are getting poured on in the sunshine state. Rain alone could be a big story here. Some places are over 5 in of rain today, with a 100% chance of the wet stuff tomorrow. Fun!

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MelbDave
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
Loc: St Petersburg, FL
Re: It's moving NE...
      #5200 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:37 PM

Jason..
Is there any way to link to your stations website and watch your weathercast? You seem much more informative than the locals in Orlando...thanx...


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: It's moving NE...
      #5201 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:39 PM

Unfortunately no...we used to delay stream the newscast, but we stopped that a while back...

At any rate, feel free to ask me whatever comes to mind...I'll answer as best I can and have time to...


--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: It's moving NE...
      #5202 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:39 PM

Hi , I was hoping for the west forecast. LOL My Mom is in town,Gulf Breeze ( Pensacola Area) . She is debating on changing her flight back home (from PNS, Atlanta then west)on Thursday to Wensday morning. I don't think any option looks good. Any guess on when and if they would shut the airports around here down?

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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: It's moving NE...
      #5203 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:47 PM

Unless I'm reading this wrong, recon found pressure of 986MB, a drop of two. Izzy writes his own book, for sure.

Joe in JAX


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: It's moving NE...
      #5204 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:49 PM

You are correct...I found that pretty interesting myself...

Gonna make an interesting case study for the next gen of mets, to be sure...



--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Lorraine
Unregistered




Re: It's moving NE...
      #5205 - Tue Sep 24 2002 05:57 PM

Jason,
Hi, my name is Lorraine.
Would you mind answering a question from an ignoramus? If Izzy does move more to the east, what can people in the central Florida area expect from the storm? We're in Winter Haven, which is right in between Orlando and Tampa - I believe we're southwest central Florida.
Thanks!


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: It's moving NE...
      #5206 - Tue Sep 24 2002 06:02 PM

Well, I don't think it will move due east...there is gonna have to be some north component no matter what...

You guys will probably get more rain...totals of maybe 2 inches or so, and some east/se breezes...15-20 or so.



--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: It's moving NE...
      #5207 - Tue Sep 24 2002 06:03 PM

I see no real motion at all. I have been telling everyone around my office since before Izzy hit Cuba that Pascagoola was the prime target. I am not changing my mind now. The warning will have to go up much further east. New Orleans should be the western most point and Panama City the eastern one. Still think Izzy will strengthen more than anticipated. I would say around 105-115 at landfall.

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meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: Lili Looms - Isidore Drifts
      #5208 - Tue Sep 24 2002 06:11 PM

nhc discussion still showin 90's in longitude it;ll never see them. think they will shift at 11.

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Stmwtcher
Unregistered




Re: It's moving NE...
      #5209 - Tue Sep 24 2002 06:11 PM

As I've been watching the cloud patterns, I can't see how Isidore will move west or due North. I think NE over the big bend area of Florida. Unless he develops a lot of clouds in a day or so, it will be a fairly dry storm by the time it makes land fall. Any opinions?

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: It's moving NE...
      #5210 - Tue Sep 24 2002 06:20 PM

I dont think the storm will get that strong maybe 90mph or so give or take maybe 10mph. There will be gust probably about 100 or 110 maybe. for some reason it doesnt look to be organizing like i thought it would anyone got an idea?


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: It's moving NE...
      #5211 - Tue Sep 24 2002 06:25 PM

I think we will see Izzy start to organize again quite soon - 12 hrs. You can already see this organization from the most recent satellite pix.

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