Anonymous
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Does anyone think Izzy could make it back to hurricane strength? It does seem to be a little better looking but not much? Where is Jason let me hear your opinion or anyone else.
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Anonymous
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NAAA aint gonna be much, just a big ole rainmaker , IZZY later, LA. prepare the boats and get your waders on . Izzy done commited suicide in mexico comin upo for some cajun food !! just enuff to quench her thirst Y'all be safe down there ya hear...... min trop storm 65kts
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin/hurricane/satellite.asp?ocean=atlantic&type=loop&sattype=ir&thisreg=gul
Accu's still up, but it's delayed. Still, think the center is moving maybe due north? One of 3 things - Sat repositioned; IR Trick or center getting back closer to 90? I hate not having access to live sat photos.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I think so...Izzy is moving slower and more easterly than forecast...and I think things are improving near the core...I'd say that Izzy should make it to Cat 1 status before landfall...
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Jason Kelley
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Lili is hard to look at. I think she is still there somehow. Going to have to wait for recon. Gut still thinks a follow of Isidore to the west of Cuba is very likely if no northward motion begins soon. No idea on intensity, though.
With Izzy, I'm still sticking with my middle age fat man theory. Not much reason to change what I have bee thinking. Very slow strengthening up until landfall. I don't foresee any explosive growth. Cat 1 maybe marginal cat 2 if situation is perfect. Still think MS/AL border is most likely landfall point.
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Jim
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Anonymous
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Thanks Jason, I agree maybe 80MPH or so. I aint even gonna pay attention to Steve Lyons. If this becomes a hurricane it will be my first yay haha.
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Lili sure is tough to spot right now. I can see the large storm cluster firing up to the SW of the larger cloud cover. It looks like overall Lili is tightening up. Looking at the IR you can see the storm clouds pulling inward on all sides on the IR, but I'm waiting to see the next advisory on her to see where they spot the center at. I'm still saying PR is gonna get a stronger whiff than everyone thought....though, like everyone else, the crow pies have been flying as fast as the upper level winds lately. I've got spare ice cream in the freezer just in case!
Jay
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Londovir
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Three buoys report max wind gusts in the 40s... Lowest pressure 998....
for those interested - summary link provided for your reading pleasure
http://www.ems.psu.edu/wx/buoydata/t-01/gulfofmex.html
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Anonymous
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Frank what does this mean? Is Izzy ever gonna strengthen?or is it already starting to??
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Frank P
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I can't access the GOES IR sat.... what's the deal with that... we are getting our second deluge in the past hour or so... about 2-3 inches tonight alone....
I was just watching the IR loop on TV.... I made a comment on the previous page that convection was building off to the NW and N of the system... this is continuing to develop....and is really trying to initiate that wrapping process to get back to the center..... IF this does occur within the next 12 hours or so, I think we'll see some strengthening... to what? Maybe strong Cat 1, weak Cat 2... heck if I know... but know this, if you start getting some decent convection wrap around this worn out old man, he just might get his second wind... he's not moving as fast as projected... so all bets are off if he can get it together in the next 12 hours or so...
I can't ever remember getting rain from a tropical system 450 miles from my house .... ever... THIS IS BIG BOY
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Anonymous
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I was looking at the shortwave ir an the ir an i think it may be trying to do as u say. i think it will do what storms have done this year is try to explode right offshore then come ashore as a intensifying storm. thats what i think anyone else have a thought?
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RickinMobile
Unregistered
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and that of course..means that Izzy will build to a category 4-5....
I love the illustration of an old man...here we have a storm that fills up the whole gulf of mexico...has 450 miles to go or more....warm SST's...and nice LLC....and slowly developing around it now...and everyone is doubting whether it will strengthen...
top that with 60 mph winds to generate the moisture from the gulf....
what?...you all think we need more than this...?????
NOT...
cat 4-5 landfall...Mobile...
i hate it when I'm right...(.hope all this hype don't come true)
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Anonymous
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For once that actually makes sense but i dont see a cat 4-5 i see maybe at most a weak cat 2.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Hey Cat 5 Rick, you're killing me over here...
Our pal Izzy is just a big fat flabby middle age storm going through that mid life crisis and wants one more fling .......
Now the question is, will he get in good enough shape to get there?
Izzy now at 23.5N and 89.7 west 987 mb 60 mph moving N at 10mph
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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If some storms can develop then he will make it.
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mbfly
Weather Guru
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Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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hmmmm. STILL at 60mph, STILL going north, STILL same pressure...... and no change in forcast or warnings in my (AND rickinmobile's !) neck of the woods. 
I'm going to bed; catch y'all in the morning. 'nite !
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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nhc says minimal Cat 1 when it goes inland.... much to do about nothing.... still heading for New Orleans.... this might end up being a big rain maker.... time for me to go to bed as Izzy doesn't warrant and all night vigil....
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Not to jinx anyone by saying good things and having the Three Weird Sisters out in the waters defy me, but the looks to be hinting now that all 3 storms may be on the verge of dying out.
They admit to the weakening nature right now of Lili. (Even go so far as to mention the near-Puerto Rico circulation feature some of us saw tonight). Say it's very ragged, has no closed circulation at present, and is under shear from the north.
Kyle is expected to build up to Cat 1 status, but they indicate a northwesterly shear building in the upper levels that will likely start weakening it, combined with a possible stalling in its westward movement.
Izzy isn't showing signs of building up an inner core yet, and the recon found the hardest winds almost 120 nmi away from the center. Add to that dry air coming in with a trough and it's possible that the rug is getting pulled out from under Izzy.
From a standpoint of people and property, we can keep our fingers crossed! :-)
Jay
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Londovir
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rickinmobile
Unregistered
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you sure may be right....at least it doesn't appear, that with a 10 mph forward speed...that Izzy will build quick enough...only a day and a half. however, on the satellite infrared..it sure appears to me that convection has fired on the entire eastern side of the storm...and will soon envelop the entire LLC...we'll see...
still think a cat 1 is on the extreme low side..got a feeling it can fire up..especially since the weather center indicated once over the deeper waters..more energy could be tapped...
we will see..right?...see ya'll in the am...
be an interesting day tomorrow...for sure.
as for lilly...if it stays weak...shouldn't it also stay west?....hmmmmmmm
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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before i call it a night (no reason to stay up when satelite imagery doesnt update.. except for occasional goes-10 shots for gulf and w caribbean storms at monterey).. going to make a couple more comments. lili appears to have opened up.. either going to reorganize in some new and different way, or just got its ticket punched and went to hurricane heaven. it is in the hurricane graveyard, after all. playing chicken with the shear monster too.. anybody notice how shear hasnt really relaxed at all with lili? fair to say that guidance is now completely useless with this storm.
isidore, in the most recent sat frames before overnight blackout.. has some convection on its SE inner bands. no, this isnt me jumping up and screaming 'i can see a spin reforming' or 'definitely moving east'.. just observing that there are now more than low clouds on the S/SE quadrant of the storm. no hype baby, just the facts. izzy made its move offshore overnight during the satelite blackout, no reason to believe it wouldnt choose a similar time to start reconstructing its inner core...
im not sold, but finally see something as opposed to nothing.
kyle.. what about it? it has an eye, but is apparently a 55kt tropical storm. whatever. it isnt bothering anybody but a few jellyfish and herring, so why worry about such trivialties?
isidore may still be a benign tropical storm by daybreak tomorrow, but if i see a in the morning then it's on again.
HF 0436z25september
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