Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST OR ABOUT 305
MILES SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.
?????
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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If it's not near 90, where is it then. I guess the NOAA recon has no idea what they are talking about. You haven't been close with anything you've posted. Run along and play little boy.
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RickinMobile
Unregistered
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they show the center at 90...and yeah, maybe...but somehow I think it is close to the edge of the east side bands...
here's a thought....not much movement today....and the thing get's it act together....whatchyall think?
wonder why Neil Frank thought it'd be a 3...
gotta go to work..later
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Rick
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 28
Loc: Wisconsin
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"Okay, so yeah - they suck. But do they all, all the time? No way. European (ECMWF) has been predicting landfall in SE/SC LA for a week. has been on it since Friday at 12Z. Timing was off, but they caught the landfall assuming it does hit LA."
So... what would be the best way to rate the models as to efficiency? Landfall position,intensity, and timing? Distance from plotted course... deviation from forecast strength? Any thoughts?
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Quite evident where the center of this thing is .... 25.77N and 90.06W
and yes it has cross 90W degrees in my opinion....
I predicted New Orleans three days ago when Izzy was drifting south on the YP, also said it would go north when is was basically stationary onland. Initally stated it would hit Pensacola last Thursday prior to the big diversion off to the west last weekend... Miss on intensity as I really though he had a chance to get to a Cat 2, probably lost any chance of that with the increased forward speed at 13.... win some lose some... had to eat a little crow with the first prediction but the second one looking pretty solid right now... and we on the MS coast should get some winds in the 40-50 mph range with tides approaching 4 feet above normal... no big deal... just worry about tornadoes some.... and rain for the flood prone areas of the coast....
did notice some convection developing just east of the center, not much still something to watch as Izzy roars towards SE LA
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Tools (in more ways than one). But check this out. I came to work at the Bank this morning and there's a freaking roof leak in my office with powdered tiles all over my equipment! BAH!
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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90.06W? What? Not going past 90W was the only thing I had gotten right! Now your going to say he's at 90.06? Man.... this is not fair.... 
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Rick
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 28
Loc: Wisconsin
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It's a diversion! Quick! Check the vault!!! 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Ha HA ,
sounds like a very secure bank.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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On the first Goes 8 visible of the day, I zoomed in and got the center at 25.95 and 90.23.
Steve
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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My office is at the interesection of 2 buildings, so there must be a crack.
Steve
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Also finally looks to be wrapping a little convection nearer to the center. Convection is getting much closer on the NW, N, NE, and E side. Just a little while longer, and Izzy will strengthen though not to the level I once thought, will still be a hurricane at landfall. 80-90mph.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Can someone explain to me what a baroclinic system is exactly and explain why Isidore is not being listed as one.
Thank YOU 
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Izzy right now is looking about as good as it has since leaving the YP... Still on track to go inland in SE LA west of NO and then just west of Lake Pontchartrain.... still lacking a ... and struggling to get one... but...
I still think it has a shot at getting to min Cat 1 prior to landfall... should get to 65 mph winds at 27N and then reach min hurricane status at around 28N... best guess....
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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90.2 is the official position, and 355 is the official track. That puts the city with a better chance to be on the eastern side of the storm and hence, more rainfall. It's pouring right now, but we still don't have tropical storm conditions - just gusting in the low 20's. It also means that MS and AL should have the bulk of the feed and run the highest damage for localized flooding.
Steve
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HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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izzy moving north, not changing. remains the possiblity of a threat.. but set to be a rainmaker/day off from school or work. maybe will hit near houma.. be nice to get something right. lili slowed down but sheared and disorganized.. maybe open. hurricane graveyard, go figure. if it doesnt find some way to die, could become a lingering threat for early next week. kyle wandering around, perhaps for a while, perhaps to die as globals suggest, in a few days.
another year of bountiful but underachieving tropical cyclones, so far. the 3 season no u.s. hurricane streak only has 3 more weeks to go. come october 15-16, three years after irene crossed south florida.. it's made.
HF 1510z25september
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Just a quick look at what's happening.
Izzy looks more sup-tropical then anything else. Looks like he'll stay a little wind, some waves, but the 'tail' he's dragging along to SE,E,NE will end up the story as far as the US goes.
Up to landfall, and a day or so afterwards, from MS east should get a pretty steady diet of rain,rain,rain. We set a record here in JAX with 4.5 in. yesterday, much drier today up to this point. I think we still got one more good soaking to come before he goes to hurricane heaven.
Lili, IMHO, remains to large to write off as a wave. If that's a trop. wave, it's a big one. The models, for what their worth, really slow her down in a day or so. Even if the drops her as a TS, you might want to keep an eye on her coming back, poss. in the lower GOM. or Bahama's.
Kyle is out there, going nowhere very slowly.
Joe in JAX
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Hmmmmm..... Does anybody notice the striking similarities between Izzy and Lili? Both were supposed to become Hurricanes in the eastern Carrib. and move NW. Now, just like Izzy, an ULL just to the west of Lili has weakened her and she is staying on a more westerly course. Looks like she may even open up to a wave ala Izzy. I look for regeneration near Jamaica again. Then things could get interestin. This time for FL west coast. Just a hunch, but keep an eye out.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
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Last vis pic shows the center of Izzy at 26.2N and 90.5W.... took a little more jog to the NW....
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cappycat
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 16
Loc: Raceland, LA
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We have battened down the hatches, but not overly worried about izzy. We boarded up, got our bottled water, but planon staying inour house. We are expecting some rain (lots) and some wind (not so much). Right now, the wind is really gusting and the rain is sporadic, occassionally heavy, as the bands pass over. Most of Raceland lost electricity last night for a little bit. Not sure if it was directly or indirectly related to the storm.
Folks east of us are gonna get some serious rain out of this. Be safe, folks.
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