BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 75
Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
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FL ain't "the Big Easy". I used to celebrate the N.O. attitude. I hope that someday I can again.
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JoeF
Registered User
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Posts: 7
Loc: Tampa
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I agree about people are gonna stay no matter what but it has been documented that New Orleans takes 72 Hours to evacuate and this evacuation was not put in effect with a huge storm headed their way cause they wanted to wait and see if it would turn east. Well it went a little east and still things ended up in a worst case scenario. I am just frustrated an Mayor Nagin now passing blame on the Corp's engineers is not right.
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Just reviewed some of the prior posts to make sure i am not mentioning anything that has been mentioned. is displaying 13L.Lee. I guess we have TS Lee at 5pm then, and thankfully no threat to land.
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Let me comment on that,
First: The area in N.O. that was proned for flodding is a poor district, meaning alot people who if made the decision to evacuate, couldn't because they were unable, due to the fact that no one own a car to transport them out of the city.
Secondly:
We are not planners, so we should not make judgements on what and when city officials make the decsion to evacuate. I agree with you, that heed the warning was issued along time ago. I believe it would cost the city of N.O. a ton of money to evacuate all the citizens out of town. Money that the city did not have.
Third and Last:
We as citizens of this great Nation of ours need to behind them now. They need each and everyone of us regardless of what and when things were ordered. I believe in the coming months and years, this will be a lessons learned for all. Hopefully, the next one will be years, and years away. Maybe never.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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"I am just frustrated an Mayor Nagin now passing blame on the Corp's engineers is not right. "
Agreed. The only problem with the Corps is they are expensive. However, you can buy a cheap truck or a Mercedez. Guess which one will last longer.
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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OMG, my heart is breaking. I am brought to tears watching Fox News right now. They saw a woman on the interstate sitting with her three year old child who is sick and basically passed out in her lap from dehydration and exhaustion. The news crew tossed down water to her .... having a child that age I want to be there to help. This is so horrible. I can't even imagine having a child who needs help and not being able to get it. Gasp. I need to go home love on my daughter and be thankful for everything - I will never again complain about my 12 days without power after last year. Never.
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Anton Ross
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 42
Loc: Downtown Beaufort Marina, SC
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emackl: Yes, we're in agreement.
They didn't have the fuding to make the fixes they wanted, and knew were needed. And yes, I believe they are being wrongly blamed, and this seems to be verified by what I am reading and hearing from the major news networks.
I'm still looking into specifics...
/Anton
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"A man's ethical behavior should be based effectually on sympathy, education, and social ties; no religious basis is necessary.
-Albert Einstein
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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 62
Loc: apopka
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There is no reason to blame New Orleans officials. Here is a link to the forecast advisory for 72 hours before landfall. The was calling for a 90 knt storm to be at 86.5 on Monday morning. That's a category two over 180 miles to the east.
No one should call for a full evacuation on that report. The first time they showed New Orleans as a target was late Friday night, just over 48 hours until landfall.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/mar/al122005.fstadv.011.shtml?
Edit: Friday night was about 60-63hr prior to actual landfall, not just over 48hr. You can make the argument that the period of reasonable conditions to get people out was closer to 48hr, however. --Clark
Edited by Clark (Wed Aug 31 2005 04:37 PM)
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 341
Loc: Maryland
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abyrd - you just made the mistake the NO folks must have. You concentrated on a single point.
If I recall, 72 hours (or more) out, one of the models was calling for an obscenely low pressure out of . Read the thread from around there and you'll see the mets here mentioning that no model really grabs hold of intensity very well, but if they catch something big, it tends to come to light.
Point being, they were warned beyond whatever the public announcement was. The does lots of communication behind closed doors for public officials.
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native
Weather Guru
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Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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I think the only one who should really take the blame is Mother Nature. The "cone of error" is just as the name suggests...it's not called the "cone of absolute certainty". The MET's and those at the NOAA will tell us...while they've made incredible strides with science and the models, etc. They still say EVERY time...these are hard to track, storms are not points that travel straight lines and they certainly cannot "predict" any hiccups and/or jogs that Mother Nature may throw into the equation. The and all others involved did they best job they know how and it was a fine one IMO. What should NOT have been a surprise to anyone on the Gulf Coast was her intensity. She right quickly started to gain strength when she got into the Gulf...she was a CAT 3 while still fairly "far" south and the fact that she hit just east or west of here and there shouldn't make a hill of beans to anyone...she was powerful and she was BIG. Wind field was what?? 230 miles! People within 230 miles on either side of that "cone" should have been glued to the sets.
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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 62
Loc: apopka
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Yes, Clark is right, to have started the evacuation at 60 hrs is much better than 48 hrs.
But, as to a model showing a hit at 72 hrs out, a city can't rely on a model or two. If I evacuated everytime a model showed a hurricane coming near Orlando, I'd evacuate at least twice a year.
My point is that 72 hrs out, they knew it was a possiblity, but it was no where near enough information to evacuate over 1 million people when the 's official forecast wasn't even calling for tropical storm force winds in New Orleans. (Not focusing on a point, the forecast had TS force winds 100 miles from the center. NO is at approximately 90. Each degree is approximately 60 miles. 90-86.5=3.5x60=210 miles. At 72 hrs, NO was officially forecast to be 110 miles from minor tropical strom force winds and 210 miles from the center of the storm. At 72 hours out, New Orleans wasn't in the cone of error! http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KATRINA_graphics.shtml)
Either way, hindsight is wonderful. I'm sure they wish they had forced an evacuation at the hint it may go to New Orleans, but don't we always preach here to look at the models, remain aware of the possibilities, but when it comes down to it, listen to the forecast?
Edited by abyrd (Wed Aug 31 2005 04:50 PM)
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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Posts: 161
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hindsight is easy.
IF New Orleans knew that a natural disaster like this was possible...(they did)..and if they knew they might not get more than a 48 hour warning in a worst case scenario....(they knew)...then money, buses, and a contingency plan could have been done long before (it wasn't)
they knew, for instance, that 20% of the population could NOT get out...poverty...etc....
the problem is that the money to have that capacity was not there...and the priority was not there....
If people before tried to get New Orleans to spend the money to develop a system to evacuate the city....who would listen?...who would legislate that?...the money wasn't there....would the federal government have done it?...
and interestingly....eliminate one aircraft carrier...and more than enough money was there...more than enough....
it's a question of wanting to build a city to protect against disasters...or not wanting to....
human error at the government level...and no one person is responsible...just another example of misplaced priorities...
plenty of money for bombs and guns and aircraft carriers....
not enough to protect a city against a terror they knew was coming one day....
so blaming them now is pointless. They won't learn....when Pompeii's smoke billowed...and fumed...many heard it..many knew the Volcano might explode.....did they evacuate? No...why?....
the old adage...
It won't happen to me
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Takingforever
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 43
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
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Dennis, ....Both of them were pretty much the same as with NO being in the Cone of error. Look what happen there.
This is what happens when forecast is so cloudy up to the last 72 hours. Hell I didn't even know it was up to 175 MPH till Sunday afternoon. This was right after the day before on Saturday afternoon on people where saying it wasn't that bad and that they been through last year and then and that the forcast didn't even have any rain or that streong of wind in the forcast....
These where people in MOBILE. So yeah you can blame who ever you want to for what happen, but the goes through the same stick with and , and only we weather nerd really saw the true danger of this monster through the press released that I doubt 80% of the people read i nthe first place.
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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 62
Loc: apopka
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I hope it didn't sound like I was blaming the . They do a great job. I remember early on, before hit Florida, the referencing the model and saying they hope it didn't come true. It was that model that was forecasting a southwest turn and a large swing in the gulf.
My point was that city officials had a 72 hour model to evacuate. They shouldn't be chastized for not forcing evacuation at 72 hours because the official forcast was for the storm to not even come close at that time.
Rick, I have to agree with you. Due to the unpredictable nature of storms, governments should have plans to evacuate at 72, 48 & 24 hours and figure out how much it costs and get it done. But, look at Pompeii today. Seven million people live around the volcano that will blow again one day.
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jbmusic
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 42
Loc: Bradenton, Fl
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At this point we can blame whoever we want but it is not going to make a bit of difference, to the thousands if not millions of people who are now homeless, or missing loved ones. All they are concerned with is who is going to help meet my immediate needs. Water, food clothing and shelter out of anymore harm.
I came on here this afternoon hoping to find people talking about different ways people are pitching in to help, People helpig others locate loved ones they have not heard fomr yet , talking about different events that are being set up to help raise funds to get these people food and water. Hopeing to find a place where people could join in and go to the distater area to help out, when it is safe to go in and lend a hand.
Please lets concetrate on ways for us to help and once everyone is cared for we can debate whose fault it is and what should be done different when they rebuild NO. 
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Jenny Bradenton, Florida
www.bbdigitalphoto.com
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JulieTampa
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 10
Loc: Lithia, FL
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Does anyone have stats for people who tried to evacuate out of NO but couldn't because of traffic? I think I recall hearing on Sunday evening that the traffic had eased and was moving along just fine, but it may have been Mississippi and Alabama coastlines, not New Orleans. I'm leaning towards some opinions that most that stayed would have even with a 72hour evac period.
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Takingforever
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 43
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
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And don't even start on Seattle and there MAJOR problem name Rainier.
But it won't happen to them...
No it didn't sound liek you were blaming the . Nor am I blameing . They are doing what they are suppose to do, play Chicken Little. Be it Miami, NO, Biloxi, Houston, Tampa, or Kitty Rock, it is there duty to make a Catagory 1 sound like a Catagory 5. And if it misses the spot it was forcast(Charley to Tampa) it isn't there fault because they have the Cone of error and that anyone in it should of been out of that cone long ago. But see that is something the gets blamed for, a slight turn at the last second and everything changes. Hurricanes are NOT a forecast nail down, nor will they ever will be when they come in so many different sizes. As the weather channel did on Sunday, compared (Large, widespread damaged, slow turns, uncontrolled path) to (Small, narrow damaged, quick turns, uncontrolled path) you can see that Hurricanes are all unique and that we can never know what they will do when they interact with us.
I'm always greatful that the plays Chicken Little, I just wish more didn't see it as the boy who cried wolf.
And on the topic of LEE, it's very intresting that a second storm that has "Died" and "reborn" itself as a Tropical Storm...Luckly Lee isn't going to be a Katerina..or lets hope not.
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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX
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Sad to say it, but the rumors are flying. My mother-in-law just called from Clermont, FL to warn us that after today there will be a two day freeze on gas and that lines were long where she is. My wife took this as truthful and began to panic but I know better. It just stinks that all this talk will cloud the truth at a time like this. Right now, I'm just trying to decide if I should still take my short vacation to Jacksonville this weekend that I was hoping for.
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Brad Shumbera
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Takingforever
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 43
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
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Two day freeze? No, but from what is happening ,the Eastern Oil pipe line is closed, so alot of gas stations are rising prices to 3.25 and limiting peopel ot 10 dollars a gas(Reports from Alanta on CNN) so I can see why peopel are panicing.
Reminds me of that movie Oilstorm on FX eariler this year....scary.
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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I am so busy at work and still don't have any cable TV or any type of TV at home from our brush with ... so i apologize if this has been addressed but has anyone heard from Rick on the boat???? I know there are other posters who are missing, how about them.
Thanks for the update... my heart is heavy
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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