Littlebit
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Plant City, FL
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I just watched the tropical update on The Weather Channel a few minutes ago and they mentioned needing to keep an eye on an area in the GOM near the panhandle of Florida. Anyone have any information on that?
Thank you, Donna
Go Bucs!!
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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There IS a weak tropical wave over the Carribean right now, but a weak anticyclonic vorticity in the gulf should prohibit any storm forming. None of the models develop anything into the gulf until at least mid next week, and then it is hard to tell whether the system that develops would go gulf or atlantic side of Florida.
However, there is the chance that something develops late in the forcast period that we have to watch. That may be what was talking about, but I'm not sure.
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bn765
Weather Hobbyist
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There has been talk that the models have been picking up on a very strong hurricane next week headed towards the east coast?? Anybody have any say in this?
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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next time a looter or gangbanger shoots at a chopper, i suggest they come back with one of these:
that'd restore some law and order pretty quick...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
There has been talk that the models have been picking up on a very strong hurricane next week headed towards the east coast?? Anybody have any say in this?
Sorry, but we now have to create a new scale for hurricanes.
Heard from several different people today that cell phone coverage out of Harrison and Jackson Counties very spotty...calls trying to get through from there lasting only seconds before losing the signal.
I have been looking at additional satellite images and figuring out the distance in of the storm surge in various areas along the MS Gulf Coast. I'm working out more details about how the surge developed so differently from the standard pattern, and looking at the debris fields. I earlier posted ideas on this sometime in the past two days. I am just curious to see if I can possibly feel worse than I do right now about how things worked out for the Gulf Coast, so I thought this was just the thing.
I doubt any accurate numbers are out but if anyone has heard storm surge estimates in feet for anywhere on the MS Gulf Coast I would appreciate if you could PM them to me.
Since MS has no other coastline I suppose I should stop saying Gulf Coast as it is slightly redundant, but it's an old habit.
Edited by Margie (Fri Sep 02 2005 01:11 AM)
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BillD
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Loc: Miami
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Great pic LI Phil! I just do not get the looter mentality at all. I remember after Andrew driving down US1 into Cutler Ridge (I had friends of the family down there we had not heard from, as well as family down in Naranja) any way, while waiting at a National Guard checkpoint I remember watching looters stealing CD's from a big music store. I never could figure that out, we didn't have power for weeks, what were they going to do with those CD's?
I can understand someone not having had something to eat for several days wanting to snag a couple of cans of tuna, but what do you do with 100 pairs of BVD's?
To get this back on topic, I am watching 92L and do not like what I see. It is too early to really tell what it is going to do, but it has all the makings... It will all depend on what the ridge(s) do over the next week or so.
And a quick report from South Florida. I was not prepared. My power went out about 6:30 PM Thursday, and it wasn't until about 9:00 PM that I realized this was not just a tropical storm. To make a long story short, I just got my power back yesterday and we are still cleaning up. But we were lucky.
Bill
Edited by BillD (Fri Sep 02 2005 01:03 AM)
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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LOL Phil, you crack me up. Alternatively, I hear they use the 105mm Howitzer on an AC130 as a rifle with a laser scope.
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Larry
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Raleigh, NC
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[quote This is my big fear - in the next storm nobody will go to a "shelter" instead they will clog the roads with traffic resulting in a whole new set of problems. [/quote
Indeed. The extended version of NBC nightly news covered the 3,000 people at the NO convention center who have been without food or water for days. The report established that the convention center was recommended as a secondary shelter after the Superdome. The people there are waiting for help, with no armed thugs around like other places. A very sad story that described the deaths of babies and the elderly from the conditions. After the story, the reporter interviewed Mike Brown, head of FEMA, who he today made it a high priority to get relief to these people. When questioned why they hadn't done it before, Brown stated that "honestly they just learned the people were there at the convention center today" after media coverage.
Duh!!! This speaks volumes about why there is such continued chaos. Down the road after this is over, there needs to be a long hard look at the lack of management coordination for the relief efforts, or this will not be the last time lives are lost.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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GFDL animation brings 92L to CAT IV status... 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: San Angelo, TX
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it will be interesting to see what 92L does in the next couple of days
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Matt
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Polk City, FL
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Quote:
Indeed. The extended version of NBC nightly news covered the 3,000 people at the NO convention center who have been without food or water for days.
It's actually 20,000 people. It's just sad. I just saw an old woman die in her husband's arms. MSNBC just had some awful pictures of the site.
Thanks for the good news Phil.  According to William Gray... 8 more to go. With all of the current activity, that's starting to seem low.
There's no way FEMA could even handle that. They were already having problems this year due to the big four last year. Then . Then the worst natural disaster in our nation's history. There's not enough money or people to help if another major, god forbid, were to hit.
Edited by Big Red Machine (Fri Sep 02 2005 01:15 AM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
GFDL animation brings 92L to CAT IV status...
Which model is the one you were trying not to grouse about - was it the ?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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the
good for nothing
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
the
good for nothing
as in good for "nothing"
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Miami Beach, FLA USA
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Miami Beach, FLA
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Ladies and Gentlemen, we have complete incompetency running this relief operation, and although I commend him and provide the utmost respect for any individual attempting to undertake this rescue operation (Dir. Brown), the statement, "that just today" he learned of these poor people suffering at the Convention Center and throughout the City of New Orleans is possibly the most disconcerting thing...causing me great fear and anxiety for those poor souls trapped in the toxic waters. Our outrage at this type of response must be known...this could easily be any of us from Florida going through what our neighbors are... we learned this all before from Andrew.
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Just learned today? Impossible...has he not looked at a tv or read a paper the last 4 days? I'm afraid things are only going to get worse in NO.
Phil...not liking the models either...I think your "crowd control" idea is great!!!
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Looking at the aerials over MS again...mind numbing destruction...but how the heck did that McDonalds sign survive? Maybe we need to look into that when rebuilding.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
GFDL animation brings 92L to CAT IV status...
Take a look at 1 frame before the end. That's Cat 5 with 116mb 142kt winds.
don't put too much stock in a wave the blows up into a cat 5. happens all too often. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Sep 02 2005 03:03 AM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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It almost hurts too much to talk about any of this any more, but I think it is obvious that it is not FEMA that is the problem. There is a huge difference at the state level. Granted, MS has had to deal with coastal hurricanes before, and LA has an unimaginable unique situation on their hands, but MEMA has been totally on top of things just as much as was possible given the huge scale of the coastal disaster.
MEMA had all their resources ready. As soon as the winds had died down to the level just above what might be considered safe, MEMA moved in to initiate search and rescue right away. Because of the size of the problem, search and recovery is going to be difficult, but in the areas that are left with any significant population, they are working as fast as they can. And MEMA was not sidetracked by the huge amount of wind damage sustained at Hattiesburg and other locations inland, in addressing the coastal effort, which has been very focused, organized, and coordinated.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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The hardest thing in the world to do is sit in your living room and watch the horror and not be able to reach through the screen and change something.
In response to the models for 5 days out. Are they in any type of agreement on direction and intensity or are the models simply beginning to suggest conditions may be right for this storm to occur. I usually understand the models are based on the current conditions but with all the recent new data, from the past year to now, Are the different data more reliable now than in the past? Or is it less reliable than in the past. Its one thing to speculate on possible formation and another to prepare for a coming event. Even those of us who prepared with our knowledge from last year here in Florida, have had to use some of our supplies, or have donated some to those less fortunate and need to replenish. With the gas prices starting to climb as well as the newer product in the store beginning to climb in price, conservative consumerism is still important right now.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
Edited by GuppieGrouper (Fri Sep 02 2005 01:36 AM)
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